San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California/San Diego with a Q&A session.
Aracruz Cellulose (NYSE: ARA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.
Tuesday, July 8
Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Lacker to speak about U.S. economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington with a Q&A session expected.
With the slowing US economy, it's been tough for retailers. Yet, there are some that are bucking the trend.
An example is Metropark, which is a fashion-conscious retailer focused on the 20 to 35 year-old demographic. Metropark believes that its market segment is underserved – and poised for much more growth, so today the company has also filed to go public.
In fact, the Metropark store environment is much like a stylish night club with regular live performances by disc jockeys and the sales personnel that are called "Style Consultants."
Some of the premium brands offered include: Acrylic, Affliction, Ed Hardy, English Laundry, Monarchy, Obey, Rock & Republic and True Religion.
No doubt, Metropark's growth has been particularly strong. In 2004, the company launched with four stores. Now, there are 43 stores in 17 states. From 2005 to 2007, revenues have gone from $11.5 million to $71.6 million.
Metropark also has a stellar management team. The company's CEO and founder, Orval Madden, was the mastermind behind Hot Topic Inc. (NASDAQ: HOTT).
The lead underwriter on the IPO is Goldman, Sachs & Co. (NYSE: GS) and the proposed ticker symbol is "MTPK." You can locate the prospectus at the SEC website.
If you were paying close attention to this column last week, you would have sidestepped some of the pain and misery investors in many of the stocks discussed have suffered lately. Of late, we have seen the general direction of the markets turn positive, even in the face of news to the contrary.
Perhaps it is because investors have an appetite for stocks, since there seems to be few investment alternatives. Real estate is off limits and the yield on bonds and other fixed-income investments is pathetically low.
The theme for the week ahead is SMOOTH SAILING. In this week's column, we delve into some stocks that will be announcing earnings, and that may benefit from the changing tide of investor sentiment. To be sure, there will be several areas of choppiness as we continue to be bombarded by the stormy realities of a turbulent economy.
Monday, May 19
The chart for Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) looks M'm M'm good. Sporting a smooth line with nary a ripple over the past 12 months, management has done a great job at keeping both company earnings and share price up, even in the face of significant food inflation. While shares have been condensing during the past few months, recently they have been rising with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Be on the outlook for earnings of 44 cents per share on revenue expectations of $1.89 billion. Now that I think of it. That's a lot of soup wrapped in tin-plated steel -- one of many materials that has seen its price almost double in the past six months.
Day one of the two-day FDA Anesthetic/Life Support Drugs & Drug Safety/Risk Management Advisory Committees meeting: Purdue Pharma's NDA for Oxycontin.
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) to report Q1 earnings; conference call Tuesday at 10:00am.
Tuesday, May 6
Day two of the two-day FDA Anesthetic/Life Support Drugs & Drug Safety/Risk Mgmt Advisory Committees meeting: Cephalon's (NASDAQ:CEPH) sNDA for Fentora.
Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 12:00pm.
PDUFA date for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY)'s supplemental Biologics License Application for Orencia for the treatment of Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 5pm.
Tuesday, April 8
Chattem Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTT) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 9:00am.
FOMC to release minutes of the March 18th meeting at 2:00pm.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson, Circuit City and Hot Topic were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Societe Generale downgraded shares of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Hold from Buy after the company lowered its Q4 guidance. Goldman Sachs downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy on the company's lowered Q4 revenue outlook and the growing probability that the wireless infrastructure market will decline again in 2008.
Circuit City (NYSE: CC)'s rating was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, as they believe the company's high cost turnaround will require a strategic partner or acquirer, which may not happen until after 2H08 and this year's holiday season.
Citigroup downgraded shares of Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) to Hold from Buy to reflect their pushed out expectations for an earnings recovery.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns.
Lehman downgraded Telecom Italia (NASDAQ: TI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA) to give business update at 10am.
Burger King (NYSE: BKC) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10am.
Tuesday, November 6
Merrill Lynch to host conference call discussing Focus Media's (NASDAQ: FMCN) secondary offering at 11am.
Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang, Senior VP Michael Callahan & General Counsel to testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on how their company gave false information to Congress relating to their role in a human rights case in China which resulted in a journalist being sent to jail for 10 years.
Hot Topic Inc (NASDAQ: HOTT), the trendy retailer with a downward trending stock price, announced last night that it is buying back $40 million of stock, roughly 11% of the company's value.
As we blogged in early July, the retailer is way off from its $30 high and is now selling for $8.15. The sagging stock price has attracted SAC Capital, which accumulated 5.1% of Hot Topic stock, or 2.3 million shares.
We blogged about the merits of bottom fishing in this retailer, but proved a bit early as investors dumped retail stocks on weak economic data and concerns about the subprime market hit the headlines. Hot Topic also got hit due to Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ: TTWO) delaying the launch of Grand Theft Auto 4, as the introduction of new game consoles is thought to have boosted Hot Topic's results in the past.
Hot Topic has a clean balance sheet and a second concept, Torrid, which provides plus-size fashion-forward apparel and accessories that target young women principally between the ages of 15 and 29, that is doing alright.
Last night's announcement can be credited to SAC Capital. SAC likes the management of overcapitalized balance sheet to put any excess money to work quickly. The combination of a large share repurchase in addition to a potential turn around of the Hot Topic concept could drive this stock considerably higher in 2008.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: RadioShack (RSH), Weyerhauser (WY), Goodyear Tire (GT), Hot Topic (HOTT) and Unilever (UL, UN) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) to Sell from Hold on valuation as they believe shares have priced in a more aggressive top-line recovery than the company can deliver over the next 12 months and that margin improvement is likely to slow.
Merrill downgraded Weyerhauser (NYSE: WY) to Neutral from Buy based on the tighter credit environment and the impact on a potential containerboard divestiture or merger.
Matrix downgraded shares of Goodyear Tire (NYSE: GT) to Sell from Hold to reflect rising oil prices and negative fundamental trends.
AG Edwards downgraded Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) to Sell from Hold to reflect negative performance momentum and a lack of back-to-school prospects.
Credit Suisse downgraded Unilever (NYSE: UN, UL) to Underperform from Neutral as their analysis suggests the company continues to lose market share...
The company, which sells alternative music and pop culture apparel and merchandise to teens, has cut back on promotional activity with inventories becoming more lean, a positive for future quarter performance. Further, its new story formats continue to do well and trends at Torrid remain solid.
We blogged earlier in the week that Hot Topic may be setting the foundation for a meaningful turnaround later this year and going into 2008. The stock is way off from its $30 high and is now at $11. SAC Capital has accumulated 5.1% of Hot Topic stock, or 2.3 million shares, up from the 245K shares it had disclosed at the end of the first quarter.
Hot Topic, with movies like the Transformers and a new generation of video game consoles and games coming to market, will have ample supply of trendy new products to sell and support a nice turnaround. The stock is up 49 cents in trading today.
Hot Topic Inc (NASDAQ: HOTT), the specialty retailer that operates the Hot Topic and Torrid concepts, might be worth a look. The stock is way off from its $30 high and is now selling for $11, and its poor operating performance could be bottoming.
While same-store sales continued to slide in May, down 6.1%, margins for the retailer are beginning to improve. Also, SAC Capital has racked up 5.1% of Hot Topic stock, or 2.3 million shares up from the 245K shares it had disclosed at the end of the first quarter.
With bad inventory out the door and movies like the Transformers and a whole new generation of video game consoles and games coming to market, this trendy retailer stock could be ready for a nice turnaround.
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Monday, July 7
With the slowing US economy, it's been tough for retailers. Yet, there are some that are bucking the trend.
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