Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) mainly competes with Expedia, Travelocity and Orbitz in online travel services like bookings for air tickets, hotel stays and car rentals. Priceline recently released its Q4 2010 results.
Two highlights of the results are a 44.3% year over year increase in gross travel bookings, and a 68% rise in international revenues compared to same quarter last year. Rising international revenue reiterates our view that Priceline (through its acquisitions like Booking.com and Agoda) should be able to leverage its foothold in European and Asian markets.
Hotels posts
FeedImproving Hotel Occupancy Levels Spell Upside for Priceline's Stock
Continue reading Improving Hotel Occupancy Levels Spell Upside for Priceline's Stock
Options Update: Wynn Resorts Volatility Flat
Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (WYNN) closed up 2%. November put option implied volatility is at 48, January is at 46. This is near its 26-week average of 47, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement. Children's Place (PLCE) closed down 13% on a lower Q3 EPS view due to a slower sales trend. November option implied volatility is at 47, December is at 45, January is at 43. This is above its 26-week average of 40, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Options Update: CBOE Volatility Index Decreases As Market Rallys
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 1.66 to 21.87. The 10-day moving average is 22.85, the 100-day moving average 26.71.SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) overall implied volatility is at 19. The 26-week average is 20. GLD up 2% as gold closes at record high of $1342.
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) is expected to announce Q3 EPS on October 7. October put option implied volatility is at 40, January is at 37. This is near its 26-week average of 36, according to Track Data, suggesting higher near tem price movement into EPS.
Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Marriott International Turns a Quarterly Profit
Thursday morning, hotelier Marriott International (MAR) announced a fourth-quarter profit of 28 cents per share. Adjusted earnings came in at 32 cents per share, topping the consensus estimate of 25 cents per share. Quarterly revenue slipped to $3.38 billion from $3.78 billion a year ago, thanks in part to worldwide comparable revenue per available room dropping 12.2%. Part of this drop was lessened by what the company notes are productivity improvements, lower management wages, and procurement savings through volume discounts and compliance.
Continue reading Marriott International Turns a Quarterly Profit
PhoCusWright Sees Hotel Industry Strength in Latin America
The hotel market may be straining in the United States and Europe under the weight of new capacity financed during the real estate boom, but the situation is much different in Latin America. According to travel industry research firm PhoCusWright, international, regional and independent hotels are popping up all over the continent, with both large and small projects in the works to tap into growing demand in the region. In the cities, where it's tough to find real estate, old neighborhoods are "reinventing themselves," PhoCusWright reports, in order to take advantage of the market's potential.
Continue reading PhoCusWright Sees Hotel Industry Strength in Latin America
Hotel mortgage delinquencies up five times
A decline in revenues is forcing hotels into foreclosure. The aggressive deals being used to lure guests onto a property is helping to bring in some revenue, but it may not be enough. Occupancy is down 10%, which has sent hotel mortgages into delinquency faster than the rest of the commercial real estate industry.
And it could get worse next year. An oversupply of guestrooms could keep room rates low, making 2010 a high-risk year for hotel foreclosures. Demand should gain 1.6%, according to hotel research firm STR Global, but average room rates are likely to fall 3.4%. The result would be the greatest spread between demand and rates in the 20 years STR Global has been collecting data.
Marriott beats in Q3, but is stock too high to buy?
Marriott International (NYSE: MAR), a leading brand in the highly competitive hotelier industry, posted third-quarter results Thursday morning. Management actually went beyond the high end of its guidance by producing adjusted income from continuing operations of 15 cents per diluted share. According to our earnings preview, Wall Street was figuring on 13 cents per share for the bottom line.
Of course, the earnings beat has to be put in some perspective. Earnings from continuing operations declined well over 50% year-over-year. And the top line plunged 17%. These are significant drops, and they show that the global recession still has some bite left in it, no matter what some of the rosier headlines as of late have said about a recovery.
Continue reading Marriott beats in Q3, but is stock too high to buy?
Marriott earnings preview
Hotel giant Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR) will get its chance to impress Wall Street tomorrow morning before the market opens when it reports its third quarter earnings numbers.Analysts are expecting to see the company show earnings of 13 cents for the quarter, down from 34 cents per share during the same period last year. The last time the company reported earnings was on July 16 when it beat out analyst estimates of 21 cents per share by reporting 23 cents for its second quarter.
Timeshare growth spurt ends severely
Timeshares, that wonderful relic from the 1970s, are about as popular as disco and excessive chest hair this year. Thanks to the recession, timeshare sales are forecasted to suffer their worst fall since this vacation option came on the scene more than 30 years ago. The plunge could reach 30 percent, according to Howard Nusbaum, president and CEO of the American Resort Development Association, a trade group, and the next year and a half could be tough, as well.
In the United States, timeshare sales fell 8.5% last year to $9.7 billion. They reached their peak the year before, when sales hit $10.6 billion, according to a study by Ernst & Young. The 2008 decline was the first sustained by the industry since it started keeping score in 1975.
Hotel room rates slump in the first half of 2009
In another sign of how companies have been forced to adapt to changing economic times, the average price for an American hotel room dropped 17% (year-over-year) during the first six months of 2009. The average traveler booking a room in the U.S. can now expect to pay $115 a night, down from $139 during the first half of 2008. New York City and Washington D.C. were the priciest destinations on the list, although Las Vegas is the most popular destination. Gaming fans can grab a room in Sin City for an average of $82 per night.
Continue reading Hotel room rates slump in the first half of 2009
U.S. travel exports to rebound in 2010
How can exports not rebound? Last year ended on a sour note after posting record results, and 2009 is by all accounts likely to be ugly. The tourism and travel industry is expected to shed more than 200,000 jobs this year. Fortunately, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. The U.S. Department of Commerce expects international visits to the United States to come back in 2010 – after its first forecasted year of decline (i.e., 2009) since 2003.
This year, international travel to the United States is expected to fall 8%. The following year, however, U.S. travel exports are expected to gain 5%, with 5% annual increases through the end of 2013. We'll come out ahead in all this, but it's going to take some time.
Will the influx of foreign visitors over the next four years be enough to turn the travel industry in the United States around? It's too soon to tell right now, and much will depend on the contributions made by domestic routes. Needless to say, even this glimmer of hope must be welcome to investors committed to the airline and hotel sectors.
Economic headwinds likely to weigh on Marriott
Upscale hotel chain Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) is likely to experience difficult leisure conditions for at least the next year. Further, when the economy rebounds, consumers will be looking to add back basics, rebuild nest eggs, and perhaps replace an aging car: few will be thinking about a vacation in a far away destination. Likewise, business travelers will continue to be asked to belt-tighten: conference call when possible, meet without a night's stay when possible, and perhaps stay at lower-cost hotel when traveling great distances.
Continue reading Economic headwinds likely to weigh on Marriott
Apple market cap higher than GE: A speculative buyout menu for Apple
Quietly, something of a market milestone passed this week. The market capitalization of Apple surpassed that of General Electric. Apple (NAS:APPL) has 2008 revenues of $32.5 billion. GE (NYS:GE) had 2008 revenues of $182.5 billion. Yes, Apple, should it choose, could quite conceivably acquire GE. Not that it would want to, as GE has a slew of problem loans on its books courtesy of its troubled finance arm. Piqqem Sentiment on Apple and GE is, of course, quite divergent with Apple way positive and GE way negative.Continue reading Apple market cap higher than GE: A speculative buyout menu for Apple
Doomsday Scenario: Just the numbers, ma'am
Even while dancing on the edge of the Great Abyss one should keep one's eye on the numbers. In this case, the key indicators that presage an economy at risk of totally imploding. Sure, the auto sales numbers were no worse than grim expectations and the ISM manufacturing number was actually a positive. But, oh, we have lots of nasty numbers to go around. Start with the RevPar number. That's short for revenue per available room at hotels and is a solid indicator of the health of the travel industry, as well as the state of business travel spending. The number? Down a stunning 15.3% in the month of January, year-over-year.Five winning Super Bowl trades: II. Short MGM Mirage (MGM)
In an economy like this, is anyone going to the game?
Yes -- but Pittsburgh people will stay in their cars (hotels are too expensive), and the Arizona people will stay in foreclosed houses (so they should feel right at home).
Speaking of hotels -- short 'em.
I received an e-mail from the Mirage in Las Vegas to come out to watch the Super Bowl for $69 a night.
Last time I was there for the Super Bowl, maybe 15 years ago, it was about $400 a night.
The Mirage is owned by MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), which is hovering at a technical support price. Once it breaks through, look out.
I'm not traveling to Tampa or Las Vegas -- I'm staying at home for the big game. And I'm shorting MGM.
Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.
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