Dr. Doom is back. Last week, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini decided to speak out about the current economic recovery, warning that it cannot last. I'm not quite sure how this blog missed my radar screen, so I must thank Robert J. Samuelson for bringing it to my attention yesterday.

Roubini contends that while there was a massive rally in "all sorts of risky assets" has caused the dollar had weakened sharply and government bond yields have "increased but stayed low and stable." These risky assets that Roubini discusses are equities, oil, energy, and commodity. Dr. Doom believes that the prices for these risky assets have risen too far and too fast compared to macroeconomic fundamentals.

It looks like the housing market is coming back, but there's still reason to be careful. In July, home resales had their highest monthly increase in at least a decade. The rush is driven in part by a tax credit that expires on November 30, 2009. The rate of sale grew 7.2%, ahead of expectations.

Last month, sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July -- up from a 4.89 million in June. This is the fourth month in a row in which seasonally adjusted sales increased, and it was the strongest growth rate since August 2007. A Thomson Reuters survey had forecast 5 million, but the reality exceeded that.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) expects almost half of all U.S. homeowners to be underwater -- figuratively, of course -- by 2011.

Declines in home prices and the fact that some of those difficult mortgages just aren't going away put 26% of homeowners in this situation by the end of last March, and it seems the situation is only going to get worse. Unlike the early stages of the credit crisis, which were driven by subprime mortgages, the next iteration will have a greater effect on prime mortgage borrowers, which comprise two-thirds of the loans outstanding.

The median price for existing homes in California gained 1.4% in April, posting an increase for a second month in a row. The bold are calling this the bottom (or close to it), though another financial market surprise could change the rules as it did six months ago. However, if the small uptick is real, it could mean that the worst is behind us, as some use the California residential real estate market as a leading indicator for the broader economy.

This post is part of our feature on Money Losers of 2008. See all 20.

For a second year in a row, American homeowners are among the biggest losers of 2008. In 2007, predictions were that American homeowners would lose over $103 billion. Now at the end of 2008 the number jumped to losses of $2 trillion as the value of homes continue to fall with no end in sight. As job losses increase, even more families will be forced into foreclosure.

Homeowners who bought at the top of the housing bubble between 2005 and 2006, could wait decades for the prices to reach that level again. People who must move for a new job or family crisis find they either have to come up with cash for closing (if they find a willing buyer) or they must walk away from the loan and give the house back to the bank either through foreclosure or through a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure.

The housing bubble that started to inflate in 2002 and burst in 2007 drove housing prices way out of the normal range. The normal ranges for housing prices track these measures:

• Income: The house price should not exceed three times your average household income, which was true from 1950 to 2000. In 2006 the average household income was $66,600, so the average home price should have been about $200,000. But during that year the average home price was about $300,000.

• Second quarter home prices fell 9.9% from a year earlier resulting in 29% of homeowners getting negative equity;
• Forty-five percent of homeowners who bought at the peak of the market in 2006 are underwater;
• Overall, U.S. home values in the second quarter posted the largest year-over-year decline in the past 12 years;
• The median U.S. home value has not been this low since the fourth quarter of 2004;
• Nationwide, nearly one in four (23.7%) homes sold during the past year sold for a loss while nearly 15% of sales were foreclosures.

These figures are unbelievable. They underscore that the housing market is nowhere near a bottom. The effects of the downturn will be felt for years to come since the biggest asset of many Americans is their home. You have to pity people who are trying to move closer to their jobs because of high gas prices. They are screwed no matter what they do.

"For homeowners who need to sell, this is a gravely serious situation," Zillow's Stan Humphries said in an interview with Bloomberg. "It can also be harmful to communities where the number of unsold homes adds more to inventory and puts downward pressure on prices."

The housing market won't improve until the huge amount of unsold inventory is cleared out, including "spec homes" being put up by builders in the hopes of luring buyers. Things are going to remain ugly for a while.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has decided it does not want to take the risk of laying out more money on many of the home equity loans it has given to customers. Many of the houses backing these funds are now worth less than their mortgages. According to Bloomberg, Morgan "told thousands of clients this week that they won't be allowed to withdraw money on their home-equity credit lines."

Since most other banks and brokerages with similar loans out to their customers have the same problems Morgan does, it appears that the market is at the beginning of a period where, for many people. getting money from these facilities will come to an end.

Since consumers are already faced with high commodities and oil prices, costly credit, and falling home and stock values, the home-equity loan was one of the last places people could turn for capital.

The news is almost certainly bad for retailers and auto companies. Consumer access to capital seems to be shrinking by the day. Cutting off home-equity withdrawals may take balance sheet risk away for Morgan and its peers, but their customers will get squeezed even harder than the economy is squeezing them now.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Investors in Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) must be applauding the government bailout. To my knowledge, it is unprecedented for the government to trade this openly in the stock of a private company. It is as if the government has become Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) which is not surprising since the Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, used to run Goldman.

Based on what has happened it looks to me like the Administration is trying to prove just how incompetent government is so we will agree to cut its budget. There are two possibilities: either the government knew how bad things were and did nothing or it didn't know. If it did know how bad things were, it should have done something to fix the problem, such as requiring Fannie and Freddie to raise more capital a year or two ago.

Perhaps it knew last week how bad things are and did not release data supporting its claim that they were in good shape because such data did not exist. If they were in good shape, the government should have been able to release comforting data and the problem would have gone away. The need to announce the bailout plan as a way to save them suggests an amazing lack of insight into their ability to cover their liabilities years or a realization that they were bankrupt and needed to be bailed out.

I've lived through the internet bubble (and have some scars) and tried to avoid the real estate bubble (it wasn't easy). But, bubbles have a way of being painful and longlasting.

So, no doubt, the real estate bubble has been painful (may be the worst market for at least the past 50 years). But, could this be a short-run thing?

Perhaps so. In fact, this is the view from the front-cover piece in this week's Barron's [a paid publication]. Actually, there may be the start of a real estate recovery by the end of this year.

This is certainly a controversial stand. Keep in mind that inventory levels are stubbornly high (helped by foreclosures) and housing prices seem to fall further and further. What's more, the credit crunch is still here and there are serious problems with major real estate operators, such as with the implosion of IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB), as well as the deterioration of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).

OK, so why the optimism? Well, if you peel back some of the recent housing data, it appears that things are stabilizing in terms of home sales and inventories. Basically, market forces are making the necessary adjustments.