It's time to get serious about home builders again, and today I started building a position in KB Home (KBH) using options. Since the collapse of the residential real estate market three years ago prognosticators have been debating when the home builders might be worthy of investing your precious coin of the realm.

As is to be expected in these volatile times most were either too optimistic or pessimistic and few got it right. Like many stocks the home builders appear to have bottomed last March. In the case of KB Home shares were available at $10. Today they have been trading between $17.64 and $18.00 per share, up 80%, although it has been a rocky road.

That is a very healthy return, but there is much more upside to come. How would you like to make 43% quick? Yeah me too!

Elkhart, Indiana; a favorite stomping ground of President Obama - where the government's economic stimulus plan was to be on full display, helping the town rise like a phoenix from the ashes. According to this New York Times article, Elkhart has gained jobs in the past nine months, but the federal support for housing is failing. More than one in 10 mortgages in Elkhart is "seriously behind" on payments and the median sale price of homes is back to where it was 10 years ago. One of the main goals of the federal support program was to keep prices from falling and mortgage delinquencies from rising, and how is that working out? Elkhart residents note that the only reason their real estate market works at all is because of the emergency federal funding. In fact, in the past 18 months, the FHA upped loans in Elkhart by 40% while defaults increased 174% --- not a good ratio.

Every once in while during a crisis or history-altering event, you run across a quote or an observation that sort of summarizes events on the ground, in a nutshell. Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker articulated one such observation during a recent chat he had with PBS's Charlie Rose.

"It seems to me what our nation needs is more civil engineers and electrical engineers and fewer financial engineers," Volcker said.

U.S.: a decade of descent

And there you have it -- the United States' decade of descent, in a nutshell. Volcker's observation speaks volumes about where the United States economy -- and the nation, at large, for that matter -- is today.

For reasons that historians will undoubtedly debate for decades (globalization, automation, flawed public policies, inadequate regulations, overconsumption, the availability of foreign capital, greed) the United States embarked on a financing boom -- creating an increasing array of creative and untenable mortgage types, accompanied by an equally problematic set of mortgage backed securities. It generated an unsustainable housing bubble, which ended as all bubbles do -- badly -- triggering the global financial crisis.

And yet, all the while, as Volcker observed, public investment in infrastructure -- the physical backbone of the economy, of the nation, really -- declined. That infrastructure is now in a state of disrepair. The nation's schools, hospitals, roads/bridges/mass transit systems/air travel system and even our electric grid are inadequate to meet the nation's current requirements, let alone the requirements of an expanding, vibrant, dynamic, twenty-first century economy.

The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) spent a few moments on CNN answering some key questions about the economy at a Fortune Magazine Forum. He was asked where he would place the blame for the current financial crises being played out on the world stage, and he said he is not one to point fingers. There is plenty of blame to go around.

Initially Buffett quipped that "every saint has a past, and every sinner has a future." He went on to say that the everyone participated in the creation of the housing bubble with the unrealistic expectation that prices would continue to rise.

He summarized that home ownership is worshiped in the United States, and once cheap funding became available and prices started to rise there became the feeling that if you did not buy a home now you would be facing higher prices next year and perhaps less favorable interest rates as well.

Want more proof of the awfulness of the housing market? According to Zillow, one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth.

Among the findings:

• Second quarter home prices fell 9.9% from a year earlier resulting in 29% of homeowners getting negative equity;
• Forty-five percent of homeowners who bought at the peak of the market in 2006 are underwater;
• Overall, U.S. home values in the second quarter posted the largest year-over-year decline in the past 12 years;
• The median U.S. home value has not been this low since the fourth quarter of 2004;
• Nationwide, nearly one in four (23.7%) homes sold during the past year sold for a loss while nearly 15% of sales were foreclosures.

These figures are unbelievable. They underscore that the housing market is nowhere near a bottom. The effects of the downturn will be felt for years to come since the biggest asset of many Americans is their home. You have to pity people who are trying to move closer to their jobs because of high gas prices. They are screwed no matter what they do.

"For homeowners who need to sell, this is a gravely serious situation," Zillow's Stan Humphries said in an interview with Bloomberg. "It can also be harmful to communities where the number of unsold homes adds more to inventory and puts downward pressure on prices."

The housing market won't improve until the huge amount of unsold inventory is cleared out, including "spec homes" being put up by builders in the hopes of luring buyers. Things are going to remain ugly for a while.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has decided it does not want to take the risk of laying out more money on many of the home equity loans it has given to customers. Many of the houses backing these funds are now worth less than their mortgages. According to Bloomberg, Morgan "told thousands of clients this week that they won't be allowed to withdraw money on their home-equity credit lines."

Since most other banks and brokerages with similar loans out to their customers have the same problems Morgan does, it appears that the market is at the beginning of a period where, for many people. getting money from these facilities will come to an end.

Since consumers are already faced with high commodities and oil prices, costly credit, and falling home and stock values, the home-equity loan was one of the last places people could turn for capital.

The news is almost certainly bad for retailers and auto companies. Consumer access to capital seems to be shrinking by the day. Cutting off home-equity withdrawals may take balance sheet risk away for Morgan and its peers, but their customers will get squeezed even harder than the economy is squeezing them now.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Investors in Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) must be applauding the government bailout. To my knowledge, it is unprecedented for the government to trade this openly in the stock of a private company. It is as if the government has become Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) which is not surprising since the Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, used to run Goldman.

Based on what has happened it looks to me like the Administration is trying to prove just how incompetent government is so we will agree to cut its budget. There are two possibilities: either the government knew how bad things were and did nothing or it didn't know. If it did know how bad things were, it should have done something to fix the problem, such as requiring Fannie and Freddie to raise more capital a year or two ago.

Perhaps it knew last week how bad things are and did not release data supporting its claim that they were in good shape because such data did not exist. If they were in good shape, the government should have been able to release comforting data and the problem would have gone away. The need to announce the bailout plan as a way to save them suggests an amazing lack of insight into their ability to cover their liabilities years or a realization that they were bankrupt and needed to be bailed out.

Are the days of wine, roses and interest rate cuts over? The answer for now seems yes.

In a statement released today, the Federal Open Market Committee said it decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2% because data indicates that labor markets have soften further and financial markets remain under stress. Moreover, the credit crunch, the lousy housing market and rising energy prices are "likely to weigh on economic growth for the next few quarters." No kidding.

The FOMC's decision, which comes amid growing fears about the outlook for inflation, should not have come as a shock to investors. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other top bankers have hinted for months that the days of wine, roses and interest rate cuts would be coming to an end. In fact, the market seemed to have already absorbed the market. The major stock market averages barely budged after the announcement was issued.

The U.S. housing slump is creating another negative ripple effect, this one by extension, or by association, if you will, as in condo/co-op association.

Owners in condo associations are having to chip-in to pay for unexpected association maintenance, tax, and related fees when other residents enter foreclosure or are substantially behind in payments, The New York Times reported Thursday.

The Times cited the case of condo owners in a 43-story Miami, Florida condo having to ante up more money after 1 in 6 residents battled foreclosure. The additional charge: an additional $1,000 assessment and $50 more a month for cable and internet fees, on top of the regular $450 monthly maintenance.

Connecticut-based appraiser Lawrence Schmidt, not a realtor but a former 15-year condominium owner with extensive knowledge of the sector, told BloggingStocks Thursday prospective buyers need to fully-research a condo association's membership status, including record of tax payments of individual members, in addition to the standard evaluation of the condo association's maintenance fees, contractor services, and quality-of-life issues, etc. Co-op buyers must do even more research on the co-op's balance sheet, monthly budget, cash flow, outstanding mortgage, and other related financials, he said.

AP reports that Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) lost $893 million in the first quarter. That $1.60 a share loss was not exactly what analysts had forecast -- they were looking for a profit of two cents a share.

Meanwhile the LA Times reports that Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo took in $10.8 million and cashed out $121.5 million in stock gains as his company got hammered by losses on sub-prime loans in 2007. Mozilo also enjoyed perks worth $176,513, including $44,454 in rides on the company's jet; $23,755 in automobile use; $8,581 in country club dues; and $31,238 in company-paid tax and investment advice. Mozilo faces an informal U.S. inquiry into his stock sales.

And Countrywide's financial condition is deteriorating fast. It set aside a $1.5 billion reserve to cover loan up 62% from $925 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Moreover charge-offs totaled $606 million during the first quarter. Fortunately, Countrywide has an exit strategy. In January, Countrywide agreed to sell itself to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) for about $4 billion in stock. The question is whether Bank of America will pull out of the deal now that it sees the rising costs it will incur if it moves forward. Since Countrywide trades 15% below that takeout price, the market has its doubts.

Investors don't seem happy with today's announcement -- the stock was down 5% in premarket trading.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

We have heard and read a lot over the past year regarding the weakening U.S. real estate market, but what about the red hot Chinese market? Some evidence is starting to show that the Chinese real estate market is also starting to soften a bit.

For the past several years, the Chinese government has started to try to curb the rapidly surging housing market, which kick-started around the start of 2001. Now the first signs of a housing slowdown are starting to show themselves, as property brokers are scaling back their operations, or in some cases closing their doors altogether.

Just how much of a slowdown are we looking at? Consider this... in the first week of 2008, home sales in Beijing fell 20 percent compared to the week before. OK, I know what you are thinking... that's just one week, we shouldn't take too much from just one week's data. Well, that would be correct, so we can't just immediately assume the worst, but the writing is definitely starting to appear on the wall.

When the typical investor speaks, Wall Street listens, to a degree. When Alan Greenspan speaks, Wall Street listens very closely.

Greenspan, who served as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve for 18 years, said that while it's too soon to say a U.S. recession is up ahead, "the odds are clearly rising," National Public Radio reported. Greenspan added that U.S. economic growth is "getting close to stall speed."

Greenspan, 81, left the Fed in January 2006 after nearly two decades as leader of the world's most powerful central bank. When he left, the U.S. economy was growing at or near trend levels, or what economists call 'sustainable growth' levels.

However, the increase in subprime mortgage and related asset defaults, the housing sector's correction and persistently high energy prices, are expected to cool the current U.S. economic expansion, which began in 2001. Many economists expect Q4 2007 GDP growth to slow to 2.5-2.9%. Some are predicting an economic recession at the start of 2008. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.9% rate in Q3 2007.

Everybody's been wondering when the housing market will finally hit bottom. Moody's decided to take a stab at that question with its new extensive report, "Aftershock: Housing in the Wake of the Mortgage Meltdown." It will cost you $3,995 to order the full report, but you can read excerpts from its Executive Summary.

While Moody's agrees the outlook for housing is daunting, it expects as the most likely scenario that housing should bottom by early 2009. That bottom is expected to result in an average annual national house price decline of 12%. Of course, some areas will be much harder hit and parts of Florida and California are predicted to bottom out with a 30% loss from the housing price peak.

Moody's believes the fallout from the current housing recession -- yes, they do call this a recession -- will be serious enough to characterize what we're now living through as a housing crash. Anyone doubting it? Moody's expects housing sales to hit bottom in early 2008, declining over 40% from their peak. Housing starts will reach their lowest point in mid-2008 and fall by 55% from their peak.

The banks pumped so much money into the housing market (with not so much as a whimper from the government) that it blew up in their faces. The depressed housing market exposed questionable lending practices at every level of the industry, from the solo mortgage broker to the largest of investment banks and their partners in crime, the rating agencies.

Thousands of mortgage brokers are now looking for work, as are the Chief Executive Officers of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C)'s Chuck Prince, and Merrill Lynch & Co,, Inc. (NYSE: MER)'s Stanley O'neal. The difference between the two groups, however, is the multi-million dollar severance packages. The ex-CEO's may have seen their reputations damaged but not their bank accounts. I wonder where they bank - offshore perhaps?

The sad housing market is old news by now, although it keeps getting sadder. The real issue now is, how do we put trust back into a banking system that has proven itself so flawed? We have been seeing almost all of the banks write down the value of their holdings on a daily basis. Now what? The banks essentially were crushed by a Frankenstein monster of their own creation. Any stock portfolio that includes financial stocks has been poisoned for the next year at least.

Since writing today's story about how real estate investors are driving up foreclosures, I've been thinking about what could have been done to avoid this mess. I started researching what happened in Japan, where the real estate bubble burst in 1991 and is only now starting to show some significant signs of recovery. I happened upon this excellent 1995 New York Times story about lessons to be learned from Japan. Here are some of the key points in that story still relevant to what's happening in the U.S. today:

* Property values were cut in half and people are still stuck in homes they bought at prices too high. Even 14 years later many of these people can't sell their homes because they owe more than they can get from a sale.

* Speculators used paper profits (from real estate or the stock market) to buy homes and stock using risky financial vehicles, increasing prices in both the stock market and real estate market. In the U.S. we had two separate bubbles -- the stock market bubble that crashed in the early 2000s and the real estate bubble that just burst.