Continue reading Chasing Value: 43% Gain to Build a Position in KB Homes

Chasing Value: 43% Gain to Build a Position in KB Homes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Mar 2010 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell 5.9% in February to 575,000. Building permits also fell in February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg news had forecast starts to fall to between 510,000 to 610,000.

Much of the weakness can be blamed on the weather. You don't start new construction in the midst of snowstorms and blizzards. Also, with a backlog of unsold existing homes, it becomes more difficult start new constructions. Builders remain cautious of moving forward too rapidly.

Here is a breakdown of the stats:

Continue reading Housing Starts Fell 5.9% in February

Housing Starts Fell 5.9% in February originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Mar 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Housing Starts Drop 4% During December

Housing Starts Drop 4% During December originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Jan 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Foreclosures Rise 14% in December

Foreclosures Rise 14% in December originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Jan 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

If you've become comfortable with the current state of the housing market ... don't. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Bank of America's Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC) say there's still plenty of risk in the housing market.

Alec Phillips, the head of Goldman's Washington office, said, "The risk of renewed home price declines remains significant." His "working assumption" is a drop of between 5% and 10% by the middle of next year.

Continue reading Housing market to dip again next year; Goldman says by 10%

Housing market to dip again next year; Goldman says by 10% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The market seems to want to go up each day as it has relentlessly almost every trading session since April. But yesterday, it had a tiny setback after the FOMC announcement. Today the culprit was housing. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales declined 2.7% in August. Every economist worth his salt said the number would rise.

Good news on the unemployment front did give the market an early boost this morning. Within an hour, though, bad news on the housing sales front wiped out the gains and moved the major indices into negative territory, where they have remained.

Here were today's unofficial closing numbers:

Dow 9,706.99 -41.56 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,050.78 -10.09 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 2,107.61 -23.81 (-1.12%)

Continue reading Closing bell: home sales don't help (AONE, BAC, WFC, GE, CHTP, JPM)

Closing bell: home sales don't help (AONE, BAC, WFC, GE, CHTP, JPM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading New home sales rise in July

New home sales rise in July originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Homebuilder sentiment rises to highest level in 10 months

Homebuilder sentiment rises to highest level in 10 months originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Jul 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Home foreclosure filings in the United States hit a record 1.9 million in the first half of 2009, according to RealtyTrac --- on more than 1.5 million properties. Again, unemployment is one of the primary culprits, as a lack of income makes it pretty tough to bring a loan at risk of default up to date. The number of filings is up 9% from the second half of 2008 and up almost 15% from the same period last year.

Last month, foreclosure filings were up 5% relative to May and up 33% from June 2008. The month's action was the third highest on record, and it was the fourth month in a row in which there were filings on more than 300,000 properties.

Continue reading Gov't aid can't prevent H1 foreclosure record

Gov't aid can't prevent H1 foreclosure record originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Freddie Mac's earnings fall as delinquencies increase

Freddie Mac's earnings fall as delinquencies increase originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 May 2009 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Toll Brothers narrows its quarterly loss

Toll Brothers narrows its quarterly loss originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Doomsday Scenario: Just the numbers, ma'am

Doomsday Scenario: Just the numbers, ma'am originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 07:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Citigroup backs change to bankruptcy law, more people could save homes

Citigroup backs change to bankruptcy law, more people could save homes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Jan 2009 08:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Helping people with troubled mortgages is supposed to keep them in their homes and , over time, stabilized the housing market. The FDIC and Congress have urged that more money from the TARP be used for the purpose of propping up home loans instead of improving bank balance sheets.

The conventional wisdom about helping homeowners make payments may be wrong. According to The Wall Street Journal, a report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision shows that "More than half of loans modified in the first quarter had slipped back into delinquency after six months, and were 30 or more days past due by the end of September."

Not very promising progress. The theories from federal officials about why this is happening were not very helpful.

A look at the average troubled mortgage-holder may be more useful. This is a man who may lose his job as unemployment rises from 7% to, perhaps, 9%. He has little prospect for his income to rise. He may have large amounts of credit card debt but no access to additional credit. He may have an expensive home equity loan. And, perhaps worst of all, the value of his home may be way below the value of his mortgage. He may be facing the fact that he will never get a dime of equity out of his house.

The idea that helping troubled mortgage-holders may break the fall of housing prices could be deeply flawed. That would mean that pouring tens of billions of dollars into the home mortgage market may have very little effect. Better to make people fell that their jobs are secure and that they have access to credit at reasonable costs. Maybe then homeowners will fell that paying their mortgages makes some sense.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Aiding mortgage holders may do little good originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Dec 2008 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I could have very easily added the homebuilding sector to the above list, but with only room for 10 stocks I had to draw the line somewhere. That said, I just could not resist the bargains in the builders, and I managed to include Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) to the list.

I had a hard time selecting just one builder, but a list of 10 requires one to make tough choices. I choose PHM for the relative safety in its valuation. At the time, the stock traded for about 60% of book value.

Other homebuilders traded for much lower valuations, and a close second to make my Top 10 list, is Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN). Trading at 20% of book value, I thought LEN was worthy of the speculation.

Continue reading Buy homebuilder Lennar (LEN) before it's too late

Buy homebuilder Lennar (LEN) before it's too late originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Nov 2008 17:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Mortgage applications inch higher last week

Mortgage applications inch higher last week originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) is reusing an old advertising slogan: Citi never sleeps. I guess the idea is that since it operates in 100 countries there is always a Citi employee who's on the job. The latest result of all that 24x7 brain power is a plan to let some its customers sleep in their own houses instead of kicking them to the curb. Which people? The people who borrowed money from Citi to buy houses and who are struggling to pay back the loans.

I found out about this proposal yesterday, although I did not know the details, when a radio network asked me to comment on it for broadcast today. But the news was embargoed until midnight so I can now blog about it. Citi says it will put a moratorium on foreclosures for borrowers who pass three tests: they have enough income to make "affordable" mortgage payments; they are working "in good faith" to renegotiate the loan; and the mortgage pertains to their principal residence.

Citi plans to focus on $20 billion in mortgages in states with the biggest foreclosure concentration -- Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Citi will assign 600 salespeople to adjust mortgage rates, reduce principal, or increase the term of the loan. In the next six months, Citi will contact 500,000 people, a third of its total mortgage population, who are current on their payments but who might need help keeping current.

Continue reading Citi to let people sleep in their houses

Citi to let people sleep in their houses originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Nov 2008 08:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday's election marks the end of a string of economy-destroying ideas that stretch back to 1980. America rejected the idea that it's right to run a government of the rich for the rich. It figured out that when you cut taxes for the top 1%, run record deficits, double the national debt, and eliminate regulation, you don't get trickle down, you get meltdown. Barack Obama's election means that these ideas are history.

What will replace them? Obama has already discussed economic stimulus, middle class tax cuts, mortgage modification, a moratorium on foreclosures, infrastructure spending, wider health care coverage, and investment in alternative energy.

But the 43rd president left Obama with a challenge -- to figure out the underlying problems with the current financial system and rebuild it in a way that will work in the short and longer term. Obama must come up with new ideas on which to rebuild the crumbling ruins he's inheriting.

To do that, he will create a team of experts from both parties. That team should analyze the sources of the problems that beset the economy and financial system. And it must agree on principles which can be used to craft legislation that will rebuild the financial system. As I've posted, I believe what they'll find is the need to create a system that ends securitization. limits leverage, delivers transparency, ties compensation not to deal size but to long-term profitability, and builds firewalls between markets around the world.

Continue reading President Obama and the economy

President Obama and the economy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Nov 2008 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Minyanville contributor Andrew Jeffery dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Put on those rose-colored glasses, it's time again for the Existing Home Sales data:

• September sales came in 5.5% higher than the previous month, at 5.18 million (annualized) compared to estimates of 4.95 million.
• Sales were 1.4% higher than last year -- the first year-over-year increase in three years.
• Inventory shrank to 9.9 months worth, from 10.6 months.
• Median home price dropped to $191,400, the lowest since April 2004.
• Distressed sales made up 35-40% of sales, with 80% of those going to owner-occupiers (higher than the usual 75%).

Per normal, the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun is as optimistic as ever. He gets paid to obfuscate the truth.

Per normal, the National Association of Homebuilders chief economist David Seiders is as pessimistic as ever. The worse it is, the better chance his group gets on the government dole.

It's messy out there in housing land, but that's not exactly news. Keep in mind that the year-over-year numbers line up against this time last year, when credit markets first seized up and home buying all but evaporated for a couple months. Easy comparisons make for premature bottom call.

Continue reading Existing home sales paint a false rosy picture

Existing home sales paint a false rosy picture originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The areas of the country that saw the best jump in July were the same ones that have been beaten up the most over the past year, including California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona.

Continue reading Pending home sales rise in August

Pending home sales rise in August originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.