Top investors know that the best time to buy is when everyone thinks it's crazy to buy. Look at Wilbur Ross Jr. Over the years, he has made a fortune by investing in a variety of long-dead industries, such as steel, coal and textiles.
Yes, this takes a lot of guts. And, it is still quite risky – and it can take years for an industry to come back (also, in the case of Ross, he has the advantage of forcing changes to create better values).
Still interested in taking a contrarian bet? Well, Barron's front cover piece this week ("Big Ripple") is about the opportunities in the real estate biz. Given all the bad news, this is certainly a gutsy call – but, for investors, there may be opportunity.
According to the article, housing stocks are priced for a prolonged fall in the real estate sector. However, if this does not turn out to be the case, these stocks could be bargains.
Home builders, for example, are down 65% over the past year. And some are selling below book value, like MDC Holdings (MDC), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) and WCI Communities (WCI).
In fact, there may be a catalyst to get these stocks moving. That is, as valuations get extremely low, there may be a spate of acquisitions and leverage buyouts. Also, expect increased stock buybacks.
True, a turnaround is far from guaranteed. Things may really implode over the next few years. But, for the most part, the housing sector looks like a pretty good play for any contrarian investor.
Hey, even famed mutual fund manager, Bill Miller, is bullish on the sector, with holdings like Centex (CTX) and Pulte (PHM).
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, such as the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.