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Sirius and XM leveling off: but Howard Stern effect is real

Posted Oct 3rd 2006 7:17AM by Michael Canfield (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Internet, Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, , Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)

Howard Stern with Logo T-shirtVia Orbitcast found this extensive ongoing study of the satellite radio wars that Bridge Ratings is conducting. The study is updated on their site weekly, more or less. Its purpose is to "analyze consumer preferences related to satellite service brand and satellite radio in general." Lots of data to mine for chart, graph and stats junkies. The study compares brands XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI). Right now the group sees a trend of new sat radio subscription numbers dropping, and predicts that interest in satellite both XM or Sirius) . Bridge is having more trouble finding shoppers willing to participate in their surveys, as the Orbitcast piece notes.

One interesting stat is one tracking the percent of new Sirius subscribers who list the main reason for their choice as Howard Stern throughout the current quarter. Data polled on 9/25/2006 showed 18% chose Sirius for Stern-- down from a high of 31% on 7/29/06. The earliest polled date this quarter Stern was the reason of choice for 19%. Bridge estimates that 15% of Q3's news subs are directly because of Howard Stern.

Continue reading Sirius and XM leveling off: but Howard Stern effect is real

Sirius analysis from Michael Comeau

Posted Sep 14th 2006 7:20PM by Michael Canfield (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Industry, Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), , Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)

SIRI 3 Mo stock price chartThe Street.com's Michael Comeau has a good piece analyzing Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI). He looks into whether this is a good buy for investors who've had trouble deciding whether to get into satellite radio now, soon, later -- or never. The stock's been hovering around $4 since mid-July, down from a peak around $4.75 earlier that month.

Howard Stern has been operating his show on Sirius since January, and it's probably not too soon to consider what type of deal it would take to get him to renew or extend his celebrated $500 million 5-year contract. Comeau feels that, with Sirius subscriber growth "decelerating", that a renewal might prove prohibitively expensive. Also, that deal set a "high bar" for the cost of signing new talent to the fledgling industry. Just something to consider.

And like us, Comeau wonders whether Apple (APPL) with iTunes and the iPod (or Zunes, if you prefer) could make satellite radio obsolete rather soon. Considering the flood of stories about mainstream media entities streaming content free on the net this week alone, makes that a real factor that long-term investors need to consider. How about this? Comeau asks if Stern really needs Sirius. What to prevent him, or other radio "names" from streaming their own content from their own sites?

Sirius benefits from "Stern effect," but what about Stern?

Posted Sep 14th 2006 9:38AM by Michael Canfield (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Internet, , Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)

Howard Stern[Via Business Filter ] Bill Trancer blogs about Howard Stern's brand equity, detailing the drop off in traffic to Stern's website (allegedly work safe -- depending where you work, I suppose).

While Trancer clearly shows that Sirius' acquisition of Howard Stern's radio show is responsible for that satellite radio service's dramatic increase in subscribe base in the past year -- what's known as the Stern effect -- he questions whether or not this move, at the same time, significantly diminished Stern's overall brand value.

Stern knew he would be reaching a much smaller audience after his move from FCC-regulated public airways, to the (at least for now), much smaller universe of subscription-service radio. Aside from the controversial financial deal, worth $500 million, that brought him to Sirius, Stern cited a desire to be away from government regulation as his motivation for the move. He claims he would have retired otherwise, and was prepared to do so, after the Janet Jackson/Superbowl incident in 2004.

I don't know if Stern or his fans are concerned over Stern's "brand value." Sirius is now an equal to XM in the satellite radio wars, and the Stern Effect, even if it has peaked, played a significant factor -- the most significant factor -- in that growth spurt. CEO Mel Karmazin should be happy.

Michael Canfield is a private investor, a business and media writer, living in Seattle. He doesn't own stock in Sirius or XM.

Continue reading Sirius benefits from "Stern effect," but what about Stern?

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