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Reinsurance Industry Approaches Record Levels

Tom Johansmeyer — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 09:30:00 EST

When I started my brief stint in the reinsurance business in late 2007, the words "excess capital" were on everyone's lips. Reinsurers had record capital on hand and were pushing dividends and share buybacks because they couldn't find ways to make it productive. Two years later, we're getting close to those record levels, according to a new report from Aon Benfield (AON), despite everything that's happened in between - the financial crisis, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike and the earthquake in Chile, for example.

If you look at the financials, it's almost like nothing has changed, and let's hope the lessons learned in between aren't obscured by the full pockets that reinsurers can now boast.

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Very poor September jobs report as employers' belt-tightening continues

Joseph Lazzaro — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:45:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Bad News, Employees, Economic Data, Recession

The U.S. economy lost another 159,000 jobs in September, as companies in the world's largest economy continued to cut expenses to protect profits in the face of the economic slowdown. It was the largest monthly job loss in five years.

However, U.S. Labor Department officials cautioned that the September job loss total was skewed artificially higher by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which resulted in more job losses in the Gulf States region. Further, the unemployment rate remained the same at 6.1% in September, the Labor Department said.

However, an alternate gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers, rose to 11% in September from 10.7% in August. The conventional U.S. Labor Department unemployment rate does not include discouraged workers because they are not technically 'seeking work.' Still, some economists argue the discouraged metric is a more-accurate gauge of unemployment, contending that these discouraged workers would accept jobs if the positions were available.

Also, the number of adults working part-time because no full-time job was available increased by 337,000 to 6.1 million in September.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the U.S. economy to shed 100,000 jobs in September. September was the U.S. economy's tenth straight monthly job loss. The U.S. economy lost a revised 73,000 jobs in August and 67,000 in July. Further, the U.S. economy has now lost 760,000 jobs this year and more than 800,000 since the job slump started in late 2007.

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U.S. jobless claims -- a 'troubling rate' of job losses

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 11:11:00 EST

Filed under: Bad News, Employees, Economic Data, Recession

U.S. initial jobless claims remain at elevated levels, even after factoring out the effect of Hurricanes Gustav in Louisiana and Hurricane Ike in Texas, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 497,000 for the week ended September 27 -- the highest level in seven years -- the Labor Department said. Without the hurricane-related claims, initial filings would have totaled about 439,000, the department said. Claims for the previous week were revised 3,000 higher to 496,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 475,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 11,500 to 474,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job losses continue to occur at a troubling rate, even after taking into consideration the act-of-nature events of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike."

"We have an economy whose fundamentals are definitely not sound. The housing sector remains in a severe slump, financial service layoffs and consolidation obviously will continue, and business investment is low," Dawson said. "Exports are about the only positive data point remaining for the economy, but that too may come under pressure if global growth slows."

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U.S. weekly jobless claims soar on Hurricane Ike

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 09:24:00 EST

Filed under: Bad News, Employees, Economic Data, Recession

Last week it was Hurricane Gustav, this week it's Hurricane Ike.

U.S. initial jobless claims jumped to their highest level in seven years, up 32,000 to 493,000 for the week ended September 20, as Hurricane Ike forced layoffs in Texas and Louisiana, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

The Labor Department said Hurricane Ike claims boosted the above total by about 50,000. Claims for the previous week were revised 16,000 higher to 461,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 445,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 16,000 to 462,500. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job loss numbers continue to show a U.S. economy that's in anemic condition. The U.S. economy is most certainly in a recession and credit market stress will only worsen commerce conditions."

"We're addressing the financial crisis right now, which is paramount and has to be the order of the day for public officials," Dawson said. "Lawmakers attention must be focused on passing the U.S. Treasury's bailout bill to keep markets liquid, which is an urgent matter. But after that's in place lawmakers should turn their attention to fiscal stimulus. Many people whose jobs were interrupted by Hurricane Ike will be rehired, but many jobs lost in the financial sector will not come back, due to consolidation, and this will push unemployment higher."

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Hurricane Gustav pushes U.S. weekly jobless claims higher

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:12:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Employees, Economic Data, Recession

Right now, the United States is dealing with the effects of storms -- financial and otherwise.

That was how one economist characterized this week's unemployment report, in which U.S. jobless claims jumped 10,000 to 455,000 for the week ended September 13, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were unrevised at 445,000.

However, the Labor Department cautioned that this week's report was skewed higher by claims filed by residents of Louisiana who were laid-off following Hurricane Gustav.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 440,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 5,000 to 445,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said "job loss statistics continue to reveal a U.S. economy that's on the verge of recession or already in one."

"Given, the recent corporate bankruptcies and banking mergers, unemployment levels are expected to rise, both directly from job lay-offs from these firms, and from the decreased business their partners and clients will experience," Dawson said. "Also, with companies becoming more conservative with operations, it's going to become increasing difficult for these workers to find comparable employment in a normal period of time, something public policy leaders need to keep sight of."

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Why does gasoline cost so much despite oil's price drop?

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 12:58:00 EST

Filed under: Consumer Experience, Commodities, Oil

Oil falls, yet the price of gasoline is hanging up there, in the stratosphere. What's going on here?

Well, as is often the case in the oil and gasoline markets, the reasons are many.

First, the price of oil is falling on concerns that both the global economy and the U.S, economy will slow to a crawl (if not worse) due to the current credit crisis, says economist David H. Wang.

Oil, which fell $3.96 to $91.76 per barrel Tuesday at midday, has declined more than 30% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July.

"The financial crisis suggests that emerging market oil demand growth will slow, and that's the primary reason you're seeing the price of oil decline," Wang said. "Strong demand for oil in China and India really boosted oil's price in the last three years. You lower that China-India demand and you have a different oil market."

Now, what about gasoline prices? Here, U.S. motorists will face a wide range of prices, depending on where they live in the U.S., economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Tuesday.

"The biggest factor short-term for gasoline is Hurricane Ike, which shut down a fuel pipeline and refinery capacity in Texas," Dawson said. "This will reduce the supply of gasoline in the South, so price increases of 50 cents or more in the Southwest and Southeast will not be unusual."

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Oil's slide continues as Gulf of Mexico output resumes

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:35:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Good news, Commodities, Oil

The winds of change are swirling around us.

In politics, the United States will elect either its first African-American as President of the United States,or its first woman as Vice President of the United States in November.

In baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays are poised to make the play-offs and contend for the American League pennant. (The Tampa Bay Rays!?) And the New York Yankees most likely won't.

And in the oil market, oil is set to test the psychologically-important $100 level, only this time via a downtrend.

That's right, you read correctly: an oil price downtrend. Oil's slide continued Wednesday as initial reports indicated only minimal damage to oil rigs and refinery infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico from Hurricane Gustav, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

Oil fell $2.10 to $107.61 per barrel Wednesday at mid-day. Oil hit a record high of $147.27 per barrel on July 11, 2008. The other major energy commodities also fell Wednesday. Unleaded gasoline dropped 5 cents to $2.68 per gallon, heating oil declined about 4cents to $3.02 per gallon, and natural gas sank 21 cents to $7.05 per million BTUs.

Energy Trader Jim Dietz said the operative phrase in the energy markets now is not 'hurricane' but changing economic winds -- the global economic slowdown. "Each week I review individual country GDP reports to cross-reference institutional data on economic conditions, and they point to one thing, a global slowdown," Dietz said. "If developing world oil consumption growth slows, oil will continue to trend lower, and we'll test $100 in week or less." Dietz added that he was currently short unleaded gasoline and oil, with monthly contracts.

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Post-Gustav, Iran says OPEC may need to cut oil production soon

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 14:20:00 EST

Filed under: Middle East, Commodities, Oil

Just when the oil market gets one storm out the way, it appears another 'storm' may be building. And we're not talking about Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike, or Josephine in the Atlantic Ocean.

Iran Tuesday said OPEC may need to cut oil supplies by up to 1.5 million barrels per day to balance what it believes will be a global market imbalance by early next year, Reuters reported Tuesday. OPEC will meet next week in Vienna to discuss oil production.

Ali Khatibi, Iran's OPEC governor, told Reuters. "The current market is not balanced, it is oversupplied," adding that the oversupply cannot continue because it will hurt oil's price.

Oil fell $6.41 to $109.05 per barrel Tuesday at mid-day. Earlier in the day oil had fallen to as low as $105.46 after reports indicated oil companies were preparing to resume production from rigs closed by Hurricane Gustav, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Economist: OPEC supply cut 'would be a mistake'

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday now is not the time for OPEC to consider a production cut. "We have all three major economic regions of the world, U.S., Europe, Asia, decelerating, in good part due to the sky-high oil prices of the past two years. Now, just went we get some relief, OPEC says it's time to cut production?" Wang said. "It's way too premature to think about a production cut. We haven't seen Q3 oil consumption statistics from Asia yet. They could show an increase, which would be bullish for prices."

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Gustav's insured losses could reach $10 billion, fraction of Katrina's

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:35:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Other Issues, Economic Data

The losses from Gustav are significant, but not nearly as bad as they could have been.

That's the early read regarding onshore / offshore property and infrastructure damaged caused by Hurricane Gustav, with losses pegged at $4 billion to $10 billion, according to estimates by Risk Management Solutions. In contrast, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused about $50 billion in damages.

Risk Management said losses from Gustav were lessened by the fact that the storm weakened, and hit the coastline as a Category 2 hurricane, and the fact that it came ashore about 70 miles southwest of New Orleans. Those factors, combined with better preparation by companies with vulnerable property in the area, will result in lower damages totals, Risk Management said.

However, RMS was quick to point out that the $4-10 billion damage total does not include loses from flooding in New Orleans that could occur in the days ahead.

Gustav: Little U.S. GDP impact

Economist David H. Wang, who runs U.S. GDP models each quarter, said Tuesday he expects "only a minimal U.S. GDP impact from Gustav."

"Of course human safety is the primary concern. But regarding regional GDP, the Southeast U.S. will incur a 0.1-0.3% GDP reduction in the third quarter from the hurricane, but the overall impact on U.S. GDP will be minimal," Wang said.

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