Hurricane Ike posts
FeedPosted Nov 2nd 2008 12:30PM by Trey Thoelcke (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Ford Motor (F), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Trump Entertainment Resorts (TRMP), EOG Resources (EOG), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT)
The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.
Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.
Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil
Posted Oct 3rd 2008 9:45AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Bad news, Employees, Economic data, Recession

The U.S. economy
lost another 159,000 jobs in September, as companies in the world's largest economy continued to cut expenses to protect profits in the face of the economic slowdown. It was the largest monthly job loss in five years.
However, U.S. Labor Department officials cautioned that the September job loss total was skewed artificially higher by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which resulted in more job losses in the Gulf States region. Further, the unemployment rate remained the same at 6.1% in September, the Labor Department said.
However, an alternate gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers, rose to 11% in September from 10.7% in August. The conventional U.S. Labor Department unemployment rate does not include discouraged workers because they are not technically 'seeking work.' Still, some economists argue the discouraged metric is a more-accurate gauge of unemployment, contending that these discouraged workers would accept jobs if the positions were available.
Also, the number of adults working part-time because no full-time job was available increased by 337,000 to 6.1 million in September.
Economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the U.S. economy to shed 100,000 jobs in September. September was the U.S. economy's tenth straight monthly job loss. The U.S. economy lost a revised 73,000 jobs in August and 67,000 in July. Further, the U.S. economy has now lost 760,000 jobs this year and more than 800,000 since the job slump started in late 2007.
Continue reading Very poor September jobs report as employers' belt-tightening continues
Posted Oct 2nd 2008 11:11AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Employees, Economic data, Recession

U.S. initial jobless claims remain at elevated levels, even after factoring out the effect of Hurricanes Gustav in Louisiana and Hurricane Ike in Texas, the
U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 497,000 for the week ended September 27 -- the highest level in seven years -- the
Labor Department said. Without the hurricane-related claims, initial filings would have totaled about 439,000, the department said. Claims for the previous week were revised 3,000 higher to 496,000. Economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 475,000.
Also, the 4-week moving average increased 11,500 to 474,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.
Economist Peter Dawson said "job losses continue to occur at a troubling rate, even after taking into consideration the act-of-nature events of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike."
"We have an economy whose fundamentals are definitely not sound. The housing sector remains in a severe slump, financial service layoffs and consolidation obviously will continue, and business investment is low," Dawson said. "Exports are about the only positive data point remaining for the economy, but that too may come under pressure if global growth slows."
Continue reading U.S. jobless claims -- a 'troubling rate' of job losses
Posted Sep 25th 2008 9:24AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Employees, Economic data, Recession
Last week it was Hurricane Gustav, this week it's Hurricane Ike.
U.S. initial jobless claims jumped to their highest level in seven years, up 32,000 to 493,000 for the week ended September 20, as Hurricane Ike forced layoffs in Texas and Louisiana, the
U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.
The Labor Department said Hurricane Ike claims boosted the above total by about 50,000. Claims for the previous week were revised 16,000 higher to 461,000.
Economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 445,000.
Also, the 4-week moving average increased 16,000 to 462,500. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.
Economist Peter Dawson said "job loss numbers continue to show a U.S. economy that's in anemic condition. The U.S. economy is most certainly in a recession and credit market stress will only worsen commerce conditions."
"We're addressing the financial crisis right now, which is paramount and has to be the order of the day for public officials," Dawson said. "Lawmakers attention must be focused on passing the U.S. Treasury's bailout bill to keep markets liquid, which is an urgent matter. But after that's in place lawmakers should turn their attention to fiscal stimulus. Many people whose jobs were interrupted by Hurricane Ike will be rehired, but many jobs lost in the financial sector will not come back, due to consolidation, and this will push unemployment higher."
Continue reading U.S. weekly jobless claims soar on Hurricane Ike
Posted Sep 16th 2008 12:58PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer experience, Commodities, Oil

Oil falls, yet the price of gasoline is hanging up there, in the stratosphere. What's going on here?
Well, as is often the case in the oil and gasoline markets, the reasons are many.
First, the price of oil is falling on concerns that both the global economy and the U.S, economy will slow to a crawl (if not worse) due to the current credit crisis, says economist David H. Wang.
Oil, which fell $3.96 to $91.76 per barrel Tuesday at midday, has declined more than 30% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July.
"The financial crisis suggests that emerging market oil demand growth will slow, and that's the primary reason you're seeing the price of oil decline," Wang said. "Strong demand for oil in China and India really boosted oil's price in the last three years. You lower that China-India demand and you have a different oil market."
Now, what about gasoline prices? Here, U.S. motorists will face a wide range of prices, depending on where they live in the U.S., economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Tuesday.
"The biggest factor short-term for gasoline is Hurricane Ike, which shut down a fuel pipeline and refinery capacity in Texas," Dawson said. "This will reduce the supply of gasoline in the South, so price increases of 50 cents or more in the Southwest and Southeast will not be unusual."
Continue reading Why does gasoline cost so much despite oil's price drop?
Posted Sep 15th 2008 12:50PM by Brent Archer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Allstate Corp (ALL), Options, Technical Analysis
Allstate (NYSE:
ALL -
option chain) shares are rising today as
early reports are showing that the damage from Hurricane Ike over the weekend was not as bad as feared. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ALL.
ALL opened this morning at $44.55. So far today the stock has hit a low of $44.21 and a high of $46.95. As of 12:15, ALL is trading at $45.98, up 75 cents(1.7%). The chart for ALL looks neutral and
S&P gives ALL a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October
bull-put credit spread below the $42.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just five weeks as long as ALL is above $42.50 at October expiration. Allstate would have to fall by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
ALL hasn't been below $42.50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $45 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ALL.Posted Sep 14th 2008 10:40AM by Douglas McIntyre (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, AMR Corp (AMR), Economic data, Oil
A significant part of the nation's refinery capacity was off-line after Hurricane Ike moved though the Texas coast line. It now appears that some of those plants may not be operating again for several weeks.
According to Bloomberg, "Almost 20 percent of the nation's oil refining capacity was shut after Hurricane Ike slammed into the Gulf Coast, limiting fuel deliveries and prompting analysts to predict gasoline prices may again reach $4 a gallon."
If the estimates are correct, consumers, the car industry, and airlines could be in for another round of pain. It has been almost universally believed that with crude falling to $100, gas prices would drop closer to $3, which would help an economic recovery in the U.S. A new period of $4 gas would shatter that.
One of the effects of the hope for lower fuel costs was that airline and auto stocks have come off of their lows. Some of the stocks have doubled in less than three months.. For example, AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), parent of American Airlines, is now over $10, up from a 52-week low of $4.
The early part of the week may set a trend for share prices in the two sectors. If refineries stay closed for two or three months, some of these stocks may lose half of their value again.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Posted Sep 13th 2008 6:38AM by Douglas McIntyre (RSS feed)
Filed under: Oil
24//7 Wall St. editor Jon Ogg is sending reports from his home near downtown Houston. His location has been under assault from winds that are probably well in excess of 80 mph. He says, via text and cell-phone, that it appears most of the power in the city is out and that the downtown will probably be under the current, violent assault for another four or five hours.
To Ogg's south all refineries close to the city have been closed. According to Reuters, "oil companies shut down about 25 percent of the nation's crude oil production and nearly 22 percent of its refined fuel production as a precaution."
Aside from the local damage and loss of lives in south Texas, the storm is already driving up gas prices. In some areas in and around the southwest a gallon of gasoline is selling for $6.
If Gulf refineries are closed for several weeks due to Ike, drivers in most of the country could be paying $5 a gallon at by the end of next week.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Posted Sep 7th 2008 1:10PM by Douglas McIntyre (RSS feed)
Filed under: Oil
As late as yesterday, forecasters believed that powerful Hurricane Ike would hit south Florida. Projections from the weather man now put its path straight over Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. The would make its U.S. landfall in either Texas or New Orleans. It would also bring it close to refineries and oil platforms that where threatened by weaker storms that ended up doing very little damage.
Ike, on the other hand, is a Category 4 storm, and that means the its damage could be exponentially greater than any storm that has hit the Gulf in three years. That leaves the potential of a real interruption in oil production and an increase in crude and gas costs.
So far, the price of oil has been immune to the weather, but OPEC may lower production and, combined with a big storm, crude begin to move back up toward $120.
The prevailing wisdom is that oil is on its way to under $100. But, prevailing wisdom has been wrong before.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.