All we can do is wait for Alex.

Hurricane season start June 1, 2010, with Alex chosen as the first name, and it's expected to be above average. The Colorado State University forecast released on Wednesday predicts 15 named storms in the Atlantic basin, due partly to record warm water. Eight of them are expected to reach hurricane status, with sustained winds of 74 mph, and four are forecasted to become Category 3, 4 or 5 storms, with sustained winds of 111 mph. Typically, there are only 10 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes (two of them major), based on data going back to 1950.

William Gray, a member of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project, told USA Today, "The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69%, compared with the last-century average of 52%."

It's not an unusual problem at this time of year. We're a few months from June 1, the official start of hurricane season, at least as far as the insurance industry is concerned. Through April and May, the Florida legislature will rush to nail down details pertaining to Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, the state entity that provides insurance to some homeowners (usually when risk is too high for private insurers to accept), and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, which provides some reinsurance protection to carriers writing property-catastrophe risk in Florida.

And even earlier, the editorials start to fly. There are concerns over whether homeowners will get sufficient coverage. There are questions about thinly capitalized Florida carriers. This is an annual ritual, of sorts, and 2010 is no different. Already, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune is raising the issue of whether some local carriers are sufficiently capitalized. Ultimately, this isn't much of a problem – unless a hurricane hits.

Crude oil for August delivery reached $78.40 today, breaking the record set yesterday, before backing off a bit to a still higher-than-Thursday $77.80 a barrel, on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Factors include escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon and supply concerns in the world's eighth-largest exporter: Nigeria. Another open-issue is what Iran will do -- possibly further embroiling itself with the United Nations Security Council after ignoring a package of Western incentives offered to get it to curb its nuclear program just recently --or by conceivably becoming entwined in the Israel/Lebanon conflict itself.

Steve Hargreaves reporting at CNNMoney.com quotes analyst Bruce Lanni of A.G. Edwards, saying: "If another event takes place, it's not at all unrealistic for oil to spike to $100," adding, "there's no fundamental reason in this current climate to see oil prices retreat below $70 in the next few months." Though Lanni believes many of these geopolitical tension are near a peak and at least some will inevitably ease off, he also notes we are just only now entering hurricane season.

I can't find a reason to be hopeful that this summer's storms will be less devastating than last summer's. Can you?