The Commerce Department reported that factory orders for December rose more than expected. Here are the numbers:

• Orders for durable goods rose 1%. The government had estimated a rise of 0.3% for December. Durables last for several years.
• Bookings for capital goods, a measure of future business investment, rose 2.2%, after a rise of 3.2%.
• Shipments of those goods rose 2.1%. These shipments are used to calculate GDP.
• The economy expanded 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in six years.
• Purchases of equipment and software increased 13%, the highest since 2006.
• On the negative side, new claims for unemployment rose to 480,000.
• The Institute for Supply Management report showed manufacturing in January expanded at the fastest pace in five years.
• Greater demand for notebooks and desktop computers fueled record sales for hard drives.

While these numbers are tame, the fact that we have slow, steady progress increases business and consumer confidence.

Much of the change in the economy is psychological. As we see steady improvement quarter over quarter, confidence gets restored, business replenishes inventories and consumers are buying again.

Do you believe that we are on the road to recovery?

Autumn has arrived and the quarter winds down this week. The Dow has been inching toward 10,000 for a while now, though it closed lower in the past three sessions. Can it make it to 10,000 for the start of the third quarter? If so, what will push it higher? If not, what will drag it down further?

• Monday is Yom Kippur, the most solemn of the Jewish holidays; trading likely will be lighter than usual. In the evening, the FDIC meets to discuss how to rebuild the Bank Deposit Insurance Fund.
• Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for September is due and the SEC holds a public meeting to consider more short sale actions.

Construction spending rose 0.3% in June. This is nothing to write home about. In a word, construction spending is practically flat.

The true state of affairs is that construction spending, at $965.7 billion, is down 10.2% from last year. Now that nothing to sneeze at but it is way off from our peak spending.

The good news is that new and existing home sales rose in June by the largest amount in eight years. But again, keep in mind that we are coming off very low numbers.

The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

Here's a look at what's on the economic calendar for the week of January 5, 2009:

• Construction spending (Nov. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Ford Motor Co. U.S. sales (Dec. 2008): Monday, 1:00 PM
• New motor vehicle sales (Dec. 2008): Monday, 4:00 PM
• Factory orders (Nov. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Pending home sales (Nov. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey (Dec. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Monster Employment Index (Dec. 2008): Wednesday, 6:00 AM
• Challenger job-cut announcement (Dec. 2008): Wednesday, 7:30 AM
• Public debt (Dec. 2008): Wednesday, 3:00 PM
• Consumer credit (Nov. 2008): Thursday, 3:00 PM
• Employment situation (Dec. 2008): Friday, 8:30 AM
• Wholesale trade (Nov. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM

For expectations from some of this week's earnings releases, see The week in preview: Family Dollar, Bed Bath & Beyond, KB Home, and others.

As the calendar year winds down, the news no doubt will be full of stories (like the one below from AP) analyzing incoming holiday sales figures and speculating on what they mean for the big picture.

About the only confirmed company reporting quarterly earnings results next week is Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NYSE: CALM), the largest producer/distributor of eggs in the U.S. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are, on average, looking for the Jackson, Miss.-based company to report earning $1.26 per share in its fiscal second quarter. That's 25.4% lower than in the same period of the previous year. In its first-quarter report back in September, Cal-Maine also reported a drop in net income as rising feed costs offset increased demand. While the share price has fallen 22.2% in the past three months, it is up 14.0% from a year ago. Cal-Maine recently completed its acquisition of a Tampa Bay egg producer.

Economic data scheduled to be released this week include:

Because so much of the recent market volatility has been tied to announcements of employment numbers, consumer credit, and other such economic data, here's a look at the schedule for some of the economic data to be released the week of November 3, 2008.

• ISM manufacturing survey (Oct. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Construction spending (Sept. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Ford Motor Co. sales (Oct. 2008): Monday, 1:00 PM
• New motor vehicle sales (Oct. 2008): Monday, 4:00 PM
• Factory orders (Sept. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Challenger job cut announcement (Oct. 2008): Wednesday, 7:30 AM
• ISM nonmanufacturing survey (Oct. 2008): Wednesday, 10:00 AM
• Monster employment index (Oct. 2008): Thursday, 6:00 AM
• Preliminary productivity and costs (Q3): Thursday, 8:30 AM
• Public debt (Oct. 2008): Thursday, 3:00 PM
• Employment situation (Oct. 2008): Friday, 8:30 AM
• Wholesale trade (Sept. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM
• Pending home sales (Sept. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM
• Consumer credit outstanding (Sept. 2008): Friday, 3:00 PM

For a look at expectations for this coming week's earnings releases, see The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil.

Even if the national headlines weren't already providing enough focus on the economy, plenty of economic data is due out as the month and the quarter wind down. U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week include:

• Personal income (Aug. 2008): Monday 8:30 AM
• Consumer confidence index (Sept, 2008): Tuesday 10:00 AM
• Challenger job cut announcement (Sept, 2008): Wednesday 7:30 AM
• ISM manufacturing survey (Sept. 2008): Wednesday 10:00 AM
• Construction spending (Aug. 2008): Wednesday 10:00 AM
• New motor vehicle sales (Sept. 2008): Wednesday 4:00 PM
• Monster employment index (Sept. 2008): Thursday 6:00 AM
• Factory orders (Aug. 2008): Thursday 10:00 AM
• Employment situation (Sept. 2008): Friday 8:30 AM
• ISM nonmanufacturing survey (Sept. 2008): Friday 10:00 AM

Other economic events scheduled for this week include:

• Fed's Hoenig speaks on "The Economy and Monetary Policy": Monday 9:45 PM
• Fed's Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook: Tuesday 1:00 PM
• Ford Motor Co. September 2008 Sales Conference Call: Wednesday 1:00 PM
• AMETEK Inc. at Oppenheimer Industrials Conference: Thursday 8:00 AM
• DuPont at Citigroup Ethanol on the Cob Conference: Thursday 12:50 PM
• Fed's Evans speaks at Agricultural Markets and Food Price Inflation conference: Thursday 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks at Indiana University Department of Economics: Thursday 7:00 PM
• Fed's Hoenig speaks on "The Economy and Monetary Policy": Thursday 9:45 PM
• National Association for Business Economics 50th Annual Meeting to address Future Economic Challenges: Friday 9:00 PM

Given that it's the end of the quarter, as well as the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday, next week looks to be pretty quiet as far as earnings go. But there are a few things of note.

Tax preparation company H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results Monday after market close. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect the company to report net income of $2.03 per share on revenue of $2.5 billion. That's an increase of more than 10% over EPS a year ago. H&R Block has tended to fall short of estimates recently, and rival Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) missed its EPS estimates earlier this month. Still, analysts recommend buying HRB. Shares have risen 12.1% year to date, and the long-term EPS growth forecast is 11.7%.

Alcoholic beverage maker and distributor Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter results Tuesday morning. Analysts are looking for earnings of 31 cents per share, up 32.3% from the same period of the previous year, on revenue of $906.1 million. Constellation has tended toward positive surprises recently, by 8 cents, or 33.8%, in the previous quarter. However, analysts recommend holding STZ and have for more than 90 days., even though the long-term EPS growth forecast is 12.3%. Although shares have risen 9.0% in the past three months, they are down 16.8% year to date.

Phoenix-based education company Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results late Tuesday. Analysts on average are expecting the company to report net income of 78 cents per share -- the same as in the year ago period -- on revenue of $806.9 million. When it comes to meeting expectations, lately Apollo has a mixed record -- it fell short by 11 cents, or more than 20%, in the previous quarter. Analysts recommend buying APOL and have for more than 90 days. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%. Though shares have risen 4.2% in the past three months, they are down 31.6% year to date.