The
Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column(subscription required)
presents a strong bearish case for the for-profit educational providers -- companies such as University of Phoenix operator
Apollo Group (NASDAQ:
APOL) and
ITT Educational Services (NYSE:
ESI).
Sallie Mae (NYSE:
SLM), a major provider of student loans, has tightened up its lending practices, and that could make career education less affordable for a lot of students.
According to the
Journal, "The problem is that the schools will likely struggle to sustain their growth rates because of the tight lending environment and the slower-growing economy. If students have a tougher time borrowing, they may need to pay more out of their own pockets. But if their job prospects are looking rocky, or if they are worried they could be laid off from existing jobs, they won't want to shell out the tuition themselves."
But there may be another element to this that could make the outlook even more bleak for these companies, many of which have a lackluster reputation due to run-ins with regulators and questions surrounding their reporting and the value of the services they provide. Students attending career colleges are also thought to be at greater risk for default.
But here's another rub: Massachusetts' Democratic Governor Deval Patrick
has proposed making two-year colleges free for all students -- a move like that would be devastating to the for-profit colleges. If that comes to pass in Massachusetts, or if other states make similar, less radical efforts to lower the cost of two-year colleges, for-profit colleges could see enrollment plummet.
Investors in these stocks will want to keep a close high on the political climate.