Earlier today, pharmaceutical firm Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) announced that it suffered a fourth-quarter loss thanks to charges suffered when purchasing ImClone Systems. Excluding these charges, LLY tallied $1.07 per share in the quarter -- topping analysts' estimates for $1.05 per share. Taking the ImClone acquisition (which cost LLY $4.73 billion in charges) into account, LLY lost $3.31 per share during the quarter. Quarterly revenue checked in at $5.42 billion.
Imclone posts
FeedEli Lilly posts quarterly earnings
The week in preview: High hopes for McDonald's, Pfizer, Netflix, P&G
Lots of quarterly reports to come this week, and if you're one of those looking to earnings for signs of the direction of the markets or of the economy, well its going to be a rough week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, by and large, expect earnings declines to be deeper and more numerous than earnings gains. And that's true across sectors: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT), American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) are all expected to post double-digit declines this week.
Even the petroleum industry is not immune, with Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE: MUR), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY), and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) expected to report profits that were as much as 65.3% lower in the fourth quarter.
And analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), DuPont (NYSE: DD), and Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) to have swung to losses for the most recent quarter, from profits in the same period a year ago. And Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expect to have deepened its net loss.
But not all is doom and gloom. There are some anticipated EPS gainers as well. Here's a closer look at a few of them.
Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for McDonald's, Pfizer, Netflix, P&G
Closing bell: Bears win, non-recession GDP fails to impress
Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11373.38 (-212.91)
S&P500 1266.96 (-17.30)
NASDAQ 2325.55 (-4.17)
10YR T-NOTE 3.979% (-0.069%)
KEY ANALYST DOWNGRADES
Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) was today's big loser in tech, media, telecom. The company beat estimates last night but guidance was a few percentage points light and the investment community still demands growth here. Shares were down by 26% to a new 52-week low at $23.10 in the final minutes.
Continue reading Closing bell: Bears win, non-recession GDP fails to impress
Closing Bell: Merger talk, oil drop, dollar gain
- DJIA 12,879.24 (+133.36; +1.05%)
- S&P 500 1,403.50 (+15.22; +1.10%)
- NASDAQ 2,487.86 (+42.34; +1.73%)
- 10YR-TBond 3.775% (+0.008%)
- 52 WEEK LOWS
- ANALYST CALLS
Continue reading Closing Bell: Merger talk, oil drop, dollar gain
Imclone (IMCL) trade idea on downgrade
ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) shares are falling after an analyst at Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight, saying that an upcoming drug study announcement will not please investors. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on IMCL.After hitting a one-year low of $30.34 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $49.18 in April. This morning, IMCL opened at $42.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.94 and a high of $43.49. As of 12:40, IMCL is trading at $42.02, down $2.81 (-6.3%). The chart for IMCL looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in six weeks as long as IMCL is below $50 at June expiration. Hershey would have to rise by more than 18% before we would start to lose money.
IMCL hasn't been above $50 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $47.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company continues its upward climb, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance IMCL might find around $49, where the stock topped over the past month.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in IMCL.
ImClone (IMCL) rises on upgrade
Imclone Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: IMCL) shares are rising today after an analyst at Citigroup upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Hold." Citi posted a $52 price target for IMCL and expects to hear good news at an upcoming conference. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on IMCL.
After hitting a one-year high of $47.94 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $30.00 last March. IMCL opened this morning at $44.81. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.61 and a high of $45.20. As of 11:33, IMCL is trading at $43.80, up $0.71 (1.7%). The chart for IMCL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $35 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just two months as long as IMCL is above $35 at May expiration. ImClone would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.
Money Face-Off: Kirk Kerkorian vs. Carl Icahn
This post is part of our Money Face-Offs feature. Let us know who you think comes out ahead in this head-to-head match-up, and check out our other Money Face-Off posts.
In this corner, hailing from Beverly Hills and Las Vegas, is 91-year old billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian, one-time amateur boxer know as "Rifle Right Kerkorian." And in the other corner, hailing from New York, is 71-year-old corporate raider and activist private equity investor, Carl Icahn, who is never afraid to go toe to toe with an opponent.
Let's get ready to rumble.
Round One begins: Kerkorian drops out of school and becomes a pilot. He gets his start in business buying surplus planes after World War II, as well as Las Vegas properties, becoming the landlord of Caesar's Palace. Icahn, meanwhile, establishes his reputation as a corporate raider during his hostile takeover of TWA in 1985, and becomes one of the inspirations for the character of Gordon "Greed Is Good" Gekko, the antagonist of the 1987 film Wall Street.
Continue reading Money Face-Off: Kirk Kerkorian vs. Carl Icahn
Analyst downgrades: INTC, European investment banks, AXP and IMCL
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intel (INTC), European investment banks, American Express (AXP), and ImClone (IMCL) were today's noteworthy downgrades: - Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch, which cited valuation.
- European investment banks were downgraded by Societe Generale on concerns that investment banking revenue will decline. Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) was downgraded to Sell from Hold. Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) was downgraded to Sell from Buy, and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) was downgraded to Hold from Buy.
- American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Merrill Lynch, which cited slower consumer spending.
- ImClone Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: IMCL) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings, which lowered their estimates following feedback regarding the FLEX study announcement.
- Business Objects ADS (NASDAQ: BOBJ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by First Albany.
- Roper Industries Inc (NYSE: ROP) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform by Friedman Billings.
- Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Citigroup.
- National CineMedia Inc (NASDAQ: NCMI) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
Analyst upgrades 9-11-07: U.S. beverage sector, IMCL, HOT and MAR
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. beverage sector, ImClone, Starwood Hotels and Marriott International were today's noteworthy upgrades:- Goldman Sachs upgraded the U.S. beverage sector, including Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP), Anheuser Busch Companies (NYSE: BUD), PepsiAmericas Inc (NYSE: PAS) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Attractive from Neutral. The firm cited expectations for a stronger 2008, benign commodity cost outlook, better than expected US beer demand, and valuations. Goldman upgraded shares of PepsiCo Inc (NYSE: PEP) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and improving industry fundamentals.
- Bear Stearns upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing positive Flex trial results and the new market opportunity for Erbitux.
- Thomas Weisel upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) and Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) to Market Weight from Underweight based on healthy August trends, credit market may ease concerns over supply growth, and valuations.
- Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
- Western Digital Corp (NYSE: WDC) was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
- KeyBanc raised Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) to Hold from Underweight.
- Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) was upped to Buy from Hold at Gabelli.
Option update: Imclone (IMCL) rallies on Erbitux data, Genentech (DNA) sells off
ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) implied volatility elevated prior to positive Erbitux data.
- IMCL, an oncology care company, is recently trading up $11.05 to $48.98 in pre-open trading.
- Merck KGaA & IMCL announced that Erbitux met the primary endpoint outcomes from the FLEX trial (a phase 3 study of 1000 patients with previously untreated non-small cell lung cancer).
- Goldman Sachs says, "Erbitux data in lung cancer positive for IMCL, Minor neg for DNA."
- IMCL October option implied volatility of 46 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Genentech (NYSE: DNA) September volatility at 21 prior to IMCL's NCSCLC data.
- DNA is recently trading at $76 in pre-open trading, below its close of $79.15.
- Merck KGaA & IMCL announced that Erbitux met the primary endpoint outcomes from the FLEX trial (a phase 3 study of 1000 patients with previously untreated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
- DNA September option implied volatility is at 21; October is at 25. DNA's average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 24 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional near term price fluctuations.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Trading play in ImClone
Biotechnology industry expert John McCamant last recommended ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) in the mid-1990s at $5 a share, and later sold at $42. Now, he has issued a trading alert, once again recommending the shares.
Two events, he says, are the basis of his new buy. The editor of The Medical Technology Stock Letter says, "The first event was Amgen's failed clinical trial of their competing product, Vectibix, when used in combination with Avastin and FOLFOX for the treatment of front-line metastatic colorectal cancer."
This, he notes, has "significantly strengthened" the competitive position of Imclone's Erbitux versus Vectibix. The second event, he adds, was the recent failure of Erbitux in the pancreatic cancer setting, which caused the stock to sell off.
McCamant explains, "This is a low impact event for Erbitux, and, in fact, they have other trials running in pancreatic that may still pan out."
Option update - March 23, 2007
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 0.21 to 12.72
Genentech Inc. (NYSE:DNA) option volatility at all-time lows as news flows from Analyst day. DNA is recently down $3.06 to $82.22.
DNA is providing investors today with an overview of recent developments. DNA says it "aims to bring at least 20 new molecular entities into clinical development between 2006 and 2008." Bloomberg reported DNA that said Avastin lung cancer study was stopped for safety. DNA call option volume of 12,491 contracts compares to put volume of 11,435 contracts. DNA April option implied volatility of 20 is below its 26-week of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) option implied volatility flat as ABT near 5-year high into ACC 2007. ABT is recently at $54.28.
ABT has four business segments: Diagnostic Products, Nutritional Products, Pharmaceutical Products & Vascular Products. The American College of Cardiology annual meeting takes place in New Orleans, March 24-27. ABT overall option implied volatility of 18 near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Analyst upgrades 3-23-07: EMC Corp, Urban Outfitters & ImClone upgraded today
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp (EMC), Network Appliance, Inc (NTAP), ImClone Systems Inc (IMCL) and International Game Technology (IGT) were some of today's more notable upgrades: - JP Morgan upgraded EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC) to Overweight from Neutral as the firm believes improved momentum in the second-half of 2007 will drive shares higher.
- Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) was also upgraded by JP Morgan, to Overweight from Neutral, as the firm believes storage will experience improving secular trends this year.
- Citigroup upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Hold from Sell and raised their target to $40 from $26 due to lower competitive threats from Amgen Inc's (AMGN) Vectibix.
- Prudential raised International Game Technology's (NYSE: IGT) rating to Neutral from Underweight, citing valuation.
- Goldman Sachs upgraded DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc (NYSE: : DWA) to Buy from Neutral with a $36 target and added DWA to their Americas Investment Buy List. Goldman believes the company's new films should drive a higher valuation.
- Wachovia upgraded Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) to Outperform from Market Perform after a meeting with management as they believe a turnaround is well in progress.
- Wachovia upgraded Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE: NOC) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.
- AG Edwards upgraded Western Union Co (NYSE: WU) to Buy from Hold with a $36 target.
- Friedman, Billings, Ramsey upgraded shares of Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.
Analyst upgrades 1-26-07: Nokia picked up the call
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) and Nokia Corp (NOK) were today's most notable upgrades: - Freidman Billings upgraded shares of Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE: LMT) to Outperform from Market Perform, with a $110 target, citing a strong Q4 report and improving outlook.
- Nokia Corp (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, as they believe the company's positive drivers have accrued faster than expected, including a product refresh and a compelling valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
- Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Imclone Systems Inc (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Market Perform from Underperform based on valuation and catalysts expected over the next 12 months.
- Lehman Brothers upgraded shares of FirstEnergy Corp (NYSE: FE) to Overweight from Equal-Weight. They feel the regulatory overhang has been removed with the recent reasonable outcome on rates in Pennsylvania and an improved outlook in Ohio.
- UBS upgraded STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE: STM) to Buy from Reduce as they expect growth from higher sales, a separation in its flash-memory unit, and a decline in inventories at Nokia (NOK), a client. Additionally, the firm raised its global phone handset unit estimate.
Daily Option Update - January 8, 2007
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.


