If consumers try a little harder this year, the holiday season has a shot of hiding memories of last year's nightmare for retailers. The retailers are doing their part, with Walmart (WMT), Gap (GPS), RadioShack (RSH), Walgreens (WAG) and many others opening their doors Thanksgiving Day, giving shoppers the opportunity to start their spending early. There's a chance that consumers will spend a bit more this year to thank each other for keeping their belts so tight for so long.

Forecasts of the season's ultimate result remain difficult to pin down. Some expect a year-over-year decline of 3%, and predictions range to an increase of 2%. Credit is harder to come by, and unemployment remains over 10% and at a 26-year high. But, the pressures on spending are offset by pent-up emotion and a stabilizing financial environment -- even if it isn't getting better yet, it doesn't seem to be getting worse.

With more than $23 trillion pumped into the financial system via monetary and fiscal policy in the last 12 months, there's good reason to fear a rise in inflation, particularly if the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing is not withdrawn in time.

Further, rising inflation accompanied by competition for capital from abroad would invariably lead to rising interest rates in the United States, but so far, higher interest rates have not manifested themselves. One example: The U.S. Treasury this week sold $44 billion in two-year notes for 0.802%, Bloomberg News reported. In other words it borrowed $44 billion for less than 1% -- an astoundingly low rate.

Google (GOOG) changed the game of many global GPS appliance makers this month by announcing a completely free and quite capable GPS product as part of the Motorola Droid handset announced and now being sold by Verizon Wireless.

In what seems to be the norm for Google, it is once again disrupting an entire market by giving something away for free that's both competitive and capable. TomTom and Garmin saw their share prices plummet upon Google's announcement, and rightfully so.

With a $33.5 million judgment outstanding against him, O.J. Simpson would seem like a really, really dumb person to lend money to.

But during the boom years of mortgage malfeasance, it seems, there was a really, really dumb lender ready and waiting to serve every really, really dumb borrower.

The Seattle Times takes a long look at the collapse of Washington Mutual, and the greed, lack of internal controls, and reckless, short-term growth and stock price-obsessed corporate culture that led to its demise. Midway through the piece, Fay Chapman, WaMu's chief legal officer from 1997 to 2007, dropped this bombshell:

As print media continues its prolonged death throes, The Washington Post Company (WPO) announced late Tuesday that it will shut down its U.S. bureaus in New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Six journalists will be affected by the closures, and all will be offered jobs in Washington. Three news aides in the bureaus will be offered severance.

As a result of the move, the Post will no longer have any journalists on staff outside its home base of Washington, D.C. In a memo to staffers, Executive Editor Marcus Brauchli explained that the newspaper must focus its journalistic efforts on its own turf.

It's a slow day in the options market, and investors are expecting a slow couple of months in terms of Dell (DELL) price action - and they are taking on a lot of risk to bet on this.

The January 14 straddle has been active today. (A straddle is the simultaneous purchase or sale of a call and put with the same expiration date and same strike price). In this case, the straddle was sold 8,000 times for $1.47 (an average of 55 cents for the out-of-the-money put and an average price of 92 cents for the in-the-money call). The volume crossed the tape around 11:00 AM Eastern time in two large blocks of 4,000 straddles.

In October, private equity powerhouse, TPG, scored a big win as it took Myer (which is a retailer based in Australia) public. The gains came to a mouth-watering $1.46 billion.

But now there's a huge problem; that is, the Australian tax authorities sent TPG a bill for a whopping $628 million. Its for back taxes, as well as penalties.

Halliburton (HAL - option chain) stock is trading lower after the company said Tuesday that reduced activity by major Mexican customer Petroleos Mexicanos will reduce HAL's Q4 EPS by 2 cents. Analysts previously had expected 0.28 EPS from HAL in the fourth quarter. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on HAL.

Wednesday, HAL opened at $29.95. In early trading, the stock hit a high of $30.05 and a low of $29.30. As of 11:10, HAL was trading at $29.76, down $0.70 (-2.3%). The chart for HAL looks neutral and S&P gives HAL a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

On Tuesday, November 24, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) stepped into the earnings spotlight, reporting that third-quarter earnings came in at 28 cents per share. Taking a tax benefit out of the equation, AEO would have earned 21 cents per share, falling a penny shy of the consensus estimate.

Quarterly sales dropped to $749 million from $754 million, with same-store sales falling off 4%. AEO did not provide a fourth-quarter forecast, which it will do when it reports November sales on December 3; this will allow the company to account for the sales from the Thanksgiving weekend.

Luxury retailer Tiffany (TIF) provided some news for a normally slow pre-Thanksgiving trading session, announcing third-quarter earnings for the Street to chew on.

The luxury retailer reported third-quarter earnings of 35 cents per share, matching its results from a year earlier. Earnings from continuing operations came in at 34 cents per share. By either measure, TIF handily topped the consensus estimate for earnings of 24 cents per share.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Vistaprint (VPRT) to buy from hold on valuation following the recent pullback in shares. The firm also raised its price target on the stock to $62 from $55.
• Fox-Pitt upgraded Eaton Vance (EV) to outperform from in line citing strong fundamentals. The firm raised its target to $36 from $34.
• Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Hospitality Properties (HPT) to buy from hold citing valuation and expected cash dividend in 2010. The firm has a $22 target on the stock.
• The Advisory Board (ABCO) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at First Analysis.
• Technip (TKPPY) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Jefferies upgraded Energy XXI (EXXI) to hold from underperform and raised its target to $2 from $1.

Here's a stock I've been wrong about. I've been bearish on J. Crew Group (JCG), as this previous article will indicate. But since the latest quarterly results show a vast improvement of the retailer's fundamentals, I guess you could say I was decidedly behind the curve.

According to the earnings release, revenues increased 14% in the third quarter. Same-store sales advanced 8%. Net income more than doubled to 67 cents per diluted share. A lot of this good news was expected, as Trey Thoelcke pointed out in his earnings preview. Still, the bottom line beat the analysts by several pennies. And you've got to love the increase seen in the gross margin.

While this article is a few days old, I still found its message rather interesting. Jeff Cox's article takes a look at the U-6 number of unemployment. This number is the "broadest" measure of unemployment, and it shows that roughly 17.5% of Americans are either without a job or underemployed. This is the highest reading since the U-6 number became an official labor statistic in 1994. The U-3 rate (which is what most investors follow) came in at 10.2% in October, which was the highest reading since June 1983.

Last summer, eBay (EBAY) launched its iPhone app, which turned into an instant hit. If anything, it showed that mobile commerce was not a pipe dream as the downloads reached more than five million.

So, in anticipation of the Christmas shopping season, eBay has launched a new iPhone app. It's called "Deals."

While Timothy Geithner gets deservedly raked over the coals for handling the America International Group (AIG) "negotiations" with kid gloves, federal officials are pressuring executive pay czar Kenneth Feinberg to ease pay restrictions on the company for the year 2010.

The concern is that tight pay restrictions, while politically popular, might hurt AIG's ability to attract and retain competent people -- thereby putting the taxpayers' long-term investment in the company at even greater risk.