IndexFunds posts
FeedPosted Nov 26th 2008 2:20PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Other issues, Rants and raves, Google (GOOG), Indices, Market matters, Technical Analysis, S and P 500, Stocks to Buy, Recession

If you are a stock trader you might have made money using
Google (NASDAQ:
GOOG) as an instrument of the trade. If you were someone jumping on the band wagon at the wrong time, say GOOG at $750 -- I feel your pain.
But if you are a traditionalist and bought the stock early and simply held on, the interesting thing is you would not have done any better than if you had bought a Standard and Poors 500 index fund.
The chart below illustrates that buying either Google or the S&P three years ago would have resulted in nearly the same loss. Although their paths cross a dozen times, they end in the same place.

Continue reading Amazing but true: Google vs S&P 500
Posted Nov 21st 2008 5:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), Home Depot (HD), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), American Express (AXP), ConocoPhillips (COP), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Procter and Gamble (PG), Lowe's Cos (LOW), Kraft Foods'A' (KFT), Wells Fargo (WFC), S and P 500, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Except for the chosen ones -- CEOs and the like who have outrageous salary and benefit packages -- almost nobody has been able to escape the financial pain in the world today.
'My pal Warren,' Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A and BRK.B), who only draws a $100,000 salary, has watched his net worth diminished by billions of dollars as his stock has unraveled like everything else. I last read Buffett had a 31% stake in Berkshire so he understands his shareholders angst, even if he does not feel their pain. The stock has dropped from a 52-week high of $151,650 to yesterday's close of $77,500 for a loss of 49%.
Once again in quarterly SEC filings Berkshire's holdings were released and I could not help but wonder if this great holding company had not become one more giant index fund. There are a lot of quality names in the mix including:
The above referenced stocks are all down with the market and there are still more that might be considered fallen angels or turn-around plays within Berkshire's holdings that include:
In addition to these publicly traded stocks Berkshire holdings include privately held Geico Insurance, See's Candies, Dairy Queen, Florsheim Shoes, and a multitude of others. Since so many stocks have been accumulated over the years I started to view BRK as a stock index and with that in mind did some comparisons between the Standard & Poors 500 and BRK.
The following is a three-year chart that illustrates that buying BRK instead of the index anytime in the last three years would have been beneficial by a 30% margin.
Continue reading Is Berkshire Hathaway better than S&P Index?
Posted Oct 18th 2008 1:42PM by Mitch Tuchman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Personal finance, Financial Crisis

If you are upset about what's happened to your portfolio, that's in the past and we must now look forward. Here are a few lessons to help you consider what to do next.
1. Get Your "Sleep-At-Night" Allocations Right. The most important investment decision we make is what percentage of our nest egg to put into cash and bonds.
Everyone today wishes they'd put 100% of their money in cash or bonds. But bond investors shouldn't sleep as well as they think -- the protection comes at a very high price. Bonds provide the lowest rate of return and over the years. Inflation eats away a lot of the value of the monthly income. From 1925 through 2003, U.S. bonds only appreciated 5.4% per year, or 61 times, while stocks appreciated nearly 10.4% per year, or 8,000 times.
Stocks are volatile, but over long periods you get paid for the sleepless nights. You just need the time to wait out these markets. Money you need for the next five years should be in bonds or cash. The panicked sellers didn't get these allocations right. If you're 50 years old and lamenting over the equity values in your 401K, remember, you're not allowed to touch it for 10 years anyway. That's a long time!
Continue reading Three main lessons from the Crash of '08
Posted Aug 7th 2008 1:30PM by Daniel Solin (RSS feed)
Filed under: Personal finance
This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money moves that may seem smart in tough economic times, but are actually quite dumb. See all 12.
The financial pundits are in a feeding frenzy.
When oil was soaring, they told us to buy energy. When it dropped, they told us that energy stocks were "old news."
When financial stocks were tanking, they told us to dump them. Now they are telling us to buy them because this is a "buying opportunity."
Don't take the bait.
They have no idea whether a stock is poised to take off or about to plunge. Neither do I. That is the point. No one does.
Here is what we do know.
The stock market is random and efficient. Stocks are efficiently priced because all information about them is in the public domain, scrutinized by hundreds of thousands of amateur and professional investors every second of every day.
Continue reading Dumb Money Move No. 5: Buy some stocks that have fallen dramatically in price
Posted Jun 16th 2008 3:31PM by Daniel Solin (RSS feed)
Filed under: Columns, Money and Finance Today, Personal finance
This is the part of a new series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please
bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can.Question: What are your thoughts on deferred annuities?Answer: I think they are great...for insurance salesman (big commission items) and insurance companies (little risk; big reward).
For most investors they are an expensive and ill-suited product.
Let's disassemble the sales pitch and see what lies underneath these products:
The much-hyped "death benefit" really isn't much of a benefit. The guaranteed benefit is calculated as the value of your contributions, minus any withdrawals. You are funding your own "death benefit." There is little possibility of the guarantee coming into play. How likely is it that the value of your account at the time of death will be less than what you originally invested?
Continue reading Naked Truth Investing: Deferred annuities: Your best interests are deferred--forever!
Posted Feb 5th 2008 7:30AM by Zack Miller (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Personal finance, S and P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ
Our stay-put behavior reflects our view that the stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient.
--Warren Buffett
Here's an interesting blog post on SeekingAlpha written by Larry Swedroe. Swedroe, Director of Research of
BAM Advisor Services, focuses on results stemming from the last 11 recessions. Returns during these periods averaged out to 7%, a full 2% more than what Treasuries averaged during the same periods.
This means, even if investors could perfectly time selling their portfolios of stock at the market high, they still would have made out worse than holding through the recessionary periods.
Unfortunately, even most professional investors can't forsee market tops. What ends up occurring during tumultuous times like these is that investors overtrade and the market truly becomes Buffett's "relocation center from the active to the patient."
Continue reading Patient investing versus (over) active investing
Posted Sep 18th 2007 6:15PM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newspapers, Mutual funds, Personal finance
This is the retirement disaster that won't get much media coverage: A study conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the Federal Reserve Board shows (subscription required) that employers are increasingly turning toward pricey actively-managed mutual funds for their 401(k) plans rather than lower cost, better-performing index funds.
Only 11% of U.S. stock funds added to 401(k) plans between 1998 and 2002 were index funds. This in spite of the fact that there are volumes and volumes and volumes of research showing that buying actively managed mutual funds is just not a very good idea. For more on this, please read A Random Walk Down Wall Street and The Little Book of Common-Sense Investing.
The problem isn't just the employers and managers/brokers, who should be beaten if they're not offering index funds. According to The Journal, "A recent survey by Vanguard of plans for which that firm provides record-keeping services found that, though nearly all participants were offered a U.S.-stock index fund, only half invested in it."
Yikes. This latest bit of news is evidence of two things: 1.) Many investors really don't know how to invest for their retirement and 2.) The people who are supposed to be helping aren't making it much easier.
Posted Sep 13th 2007 5:02PM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newspapers, Mutual funds, Personal finance
According to a
piece (subscription required) in
The Wall Street Journal, enhanced index funds are lagging the market.
These funds seek to combine active investing with indexing, and often attempt to enhance performance through derivatives trading, or weeding out stocks that the manager believes are particularly bad. The goal is to attempt to outperform the index by 1 or 2 percentage points with limited volatility.
This quote from The Journal pretty much sums up the problem:
"Typically, enhanced index funds have very reliable higher returns than the benchmark index they track," said Carl Hess, practice director for the Americas at Watson Wyatt Investment Consulting.But like the old efficient markets analogy about walking around in a parking lot looking for dollar bills, any investment that provides "very reliable higher returns" is destined to level off once its superiority becomes common knowledge. The whole basis for indexing is the acceptance that beating the market is close to impossible, and that the only things we as investors can really control are fees and diversification. The idea of enhanced index funds is a bit of a contradiction.
Investors should probably stay away from these funds, particularly those with high fees. If you want to try to achieve returns close to those of the indices, your best bet is traditional index funds.
Posted Aug 9th 2007 5:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Rants and raves, Indices, Market matters, Comfort Zone Investing, DJIA
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell a long way today dropping 387 points and we can all look forward to reading and hearing why in the coming hours. For me, I preach calm. Either you have developed an investment style and portfolio that allows you to rest easy and stay calm over major market hurdles or you are worried silly. If you are worried silly then I still preach calm...of a different sort. You should calmly transform your portfolio to one that does allow you to find peace in down markets. For the calm seekers:
- More cash - less leverage
- Industry (sector) diversification - not specialization
- Large companies paying dividends - not small caps paying nothing
- Index funds - not developing market funds
- Dow Utilities over Dow Industrials
- Time in the market - not timing the market
What would you add to the list to get through difficult markets? What gives you peace, when all around you seems to be behaving badly? Have you made changes or adjustments in your portfolio over the past few months? What were they? Time to share, because this market is going through some real growing pains and your experience and wisdom might help someone. Perhaps some milk and cookies might help.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well - INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
Posted May 7th 2007 5:09PM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Indices
When Warren Buffett talks, investors should listen -- especially when what he says echoes the sentiments of other investing legends like John Bogle and Burton Malkiel, as well as vast reams of academic research: If you try to pick stocks or mutual funds, you will probably not beat the market, especially after expenses. Therefore, your best bet for the long-term is low cost index funds, which are designed to track the performance of indices, such as the Dow or the Wilshire 5000.
At the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) annual meeting, Warren Buffet once again expressed his support for passive investing, saying that "A very low-cost index is going to beat a majority of the amateur-managed money or professionally-managed money...The gross performance may be reasonably decent, but the fees will eat up a significant percentage of the returns," he said. "You'll pay lots of fees to people who do well, and lots of fees to people who do not do so well." He even conceded that he would be "amazed" if Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio outperforms the S&P 500 by more than few points, given its size.
I agree wholeheartedly with Buffett's ideas. There is simply no reason for most investors to buy actively managed mutual funds. On a governance level, his statement about paying lots of fees to managers who don't perform well may strike at the root of the mutual fund problem: They are compensated for gathering assets, not performing well. Given a choice between staying small and doing well or growing large and doing not so well, the choice is obvious for most fund managers: Grow big because the expense ratio is based on assets under management rather than earnings.
The compensation system makes no sense: Why should someone be paid more for underperforming with 100 million in assets than outperforming with 50 million in assets? But until that changes, mutual funds will continue to focus on asset gathering at the expense of shareholder returns. And that's one good reason to stick with index funds.
Posted May 2nd 2007 5:27PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and raves
In an article that is sure to be torn apart more than a few times soon,
Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki recent stated that a friend of his would
rather play the lottery than invest in mutual funds. To a point, I agree (somewhat) with that: most mutual funds are atrocious tools for growth. The loads, the management ineptness and the fees are all considered by many industry veterans to be one of the worst ways to invest your money. Consider John Bogle (founder of Vanguard), Peter Lynch (of the famed Fidelity Magellan fund) and former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt. All of these respected individuals have spoken on the high costs and poor returns of the average mutual fund. Yet, financial advisers and licensed brokers dole them out to customers like candy to a baby.
But, the devil is in the details here -- not all mutual funds can be grouped into a big basket. No-load index funds are great investment vehicles for most novice investors in the U.S. Rather adventuresome investors may get into individual and speculative stock picking, but for most, the index fund (and a varied bucket at that) is a great way to park that money. Kiyosaki does not even make this distinction. Strike #1. According to a conversation with a friend of Kiyosaki's, 401(k) contributions, IRAs and profit sharing/pension plans are not wise investments at all. Whoa -- them's fightin' words!
It's true that investment vehicles in
areas where investors have little control (like the market) can lead to somewhat of a gamble, is playing the lottery any better? Based on the track record of the market (and index funds in particular), do lotteries have a better return? It's true that past performance is no guarantee of future results, but with a few grand, what do you trust? An index fund or
REIT or maybe a few hundred lotto tickets?
While there is a semblance of thought in the article by Kiyosaki, the premise is lacking in supporting detail and not enough investment vehicles are referenced to make a convincing thought here. I'm still a non-believer in most mutual funds (a waste of time and effort unless you know the manager), but
index funds are still the way to go for many investors -- and I'd still put my money into one of them rather than play the lottery. Answer this: would you rather have little control over your investments for the (unknown) chance of a higher payoff or complete control over your investments with a tiny and slim chance for a payoff?
Posted Apr 29th 2007 3:10PM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, Mutual funds
Mark Hulbert discussed an interesting new study in Sunday's New York Times. He sums it up: "Don't even consider holding actively managed mutual funds unless you're willing to switch funds often. All other fund investors should simply buy and hold an index fund for the long term."
The author of the study argues that mutual funds underperform over the long-term not because of the inability of professional managers to pick stocks, but because of the way money flows into funds affects returns. That's right! Blame yourself for the poor performance of your funds! Basically, Jonathan Berk, the University of California professor who wrote the paper, argues that managers who perform well attract greater investments and so the funds stop performing well.
The professor suggests a complicated method of checking your funds regularly and selling bottom-performing funds and buying top-performing ones -- sounds to me a lot like performance-chasing. It also seems to run contrary to Berk's complaint that managers who perform well take on too much in the way of assets. Isn't performance-chasing what causes that problem?
Particularly given the costs of switching funds frequently (mainly taxes), I think investors will still do far better owning index funds. It's a lot easier too, isn't it?
Posted Mar 22nd 2007 2:35PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Consumer experience, Blogs, Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, General Electric (GE), PepsiCo (PEP), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Marketing and advertising, Getting started, Columns, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Procter and Gamble (PG), ETF Investing, Serious Money
Warren Buffett has acknowledged investing in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and the Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) in the past few years. Among all the endorsements a company could possibly get, this is better than a 5-Star rating from Morning Star and a a boooyaah! from James Cramer combined. Of course, Mr. Buffett's choices are far more limited than yours or mine, given the size of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), the vessel he is navigating that could have been included in this review as well.
I was looking once again at large, well diversified companies that are broadly held by institutions and individuals alike that most investors would generally agree are safe havens. To round out the discussion, I have added General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) and PepsiCo Inc (NYSE:PEP). There are several others that could be added to this group but I have enough for this post's purpose.
The question is whether investors are better off buying into a few broadly held index funds or better off holding a few dividend paying large cap stocks? I am a firm believer in keeping at least half of the money you save, invested in the stock market, placed in indexed mutual funds, or exchange traded funds with low fees and low stock turnover, minimizing short term capital gains.
Continue reading Serious Money: GE, JNJ, PG, PEP or index funds?
Posted Dec 20th 2006 7:34AM by Amey Stone (RSS feed)
Filed under: Getting started, Columns, Mutual funds
Picking stocks is fun. It's exciting. It can be very rewarding over a short period of time. Better yet, it can give you bragging rights at holiday parties.
Buying and holding mutual funds has none of those benefits. But it can be quite rewarding over the long term and is a very affordable way to invest. (For more on this, see, "Top5 Low-Cost Mutual Funds."
There are lots of great reasons to make mutual funds the core of your portfolio. Here are seven to consider:
1. Funds are easy. Never invested before? Just call your favorite discount broker or no-load fund company (Vanguard comes to mind), tell them you want a good solid fund for your first investment (large-cap growth or S&P Index funds are good options for first-timers) and they'll hook you up. No muss, no fuss. You'll be investing before you know it.
2. Funds are cheap. Think about it: Buy a no-load fund with a very low 0.15% expense ratio and you can invest $1,000 a year, including all trades and administration fees, for just $15 a year. And you thought stock trading for $7 a trade was cheap! (Warning: Not all funds are that cheap.)
3. Funds are professionally managed. Okay, so actively-managed funds don't typically beat the S&P 500 and usually have much higher expenses than index funds. But the best fund managers often beat the market. And you get the benefit of knowing that if the market starts to tank or a major blue-chip stock goes down the tubes, there is a real person at the helm who might be able to sell ahead of the pack.
4. Funds don't implode. Put another way, funds are diversified. That simply means that you get the protection of owning about 50 stocks, hopefully in an assortment of different sectors, so your risk of having one stock-specific disaster decimate your portfolio is minimized.
5. You can always have fun with stocks on the side. Once your core portfolio is buttoned down with stable, diversified growth funds, then you're free to use long-term conservative and short-term speculative stock-picking to add some excitement to the mix -- without having to worry about screwing things up too badly.
6. ETFs. That stands for exchange-traded funds. They are index funds that trade like stocks. So you can enjoy the excitement and tax advantages of trading stocks, while getting the low fees and diversification benefits of funds.
7. Funds are fun. Okay, they may not be as fun as owning stocks. But the best fund companies will make you feel like part of a smart, exclusive club. If you're lucky, your fund manager may even write entertaining newsletters and show up in magazines now and then. Most important, good funds have consistent long-term positive results. You may not feel much like bragging about earning a steady 10% a year. But you'll certainly be able to pat yourself on the back for a job well done come retirement.
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