Has Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Tropic Thunder succeeded where the Joker has failed? Has the film beaten Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight? According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, it has. Can you believe it? Tropic Thunder, which stars Ben Stiller, right now has $26 million to its credit, enough to capture the top spot. That number will change most likely when final tallies are in, but it doesn't matter, since The Dark Knight is believed to have taken in a little under $17 million over the three-day weekend at domestic multiplexes, giving it a second-place finish. This is good news for shareholders of Viacom, who have so far been pretty happy with the studio's successful summer output. Box-office hits like Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man have powered the media company.

Now, Time Warner's new animated flick, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, actually did worse than I expected. It came in third with $15 million. I admit, I totally misread this one. Believe it or not, I thought the film might do a huge number, like between $40 million and $50 million. I'm not sure the box-office dynamics at this time of year would have supported a statistic like that for this kind of film. And I guess I overestimated the number of geeks out there who were waiting to see it during the first weekend out. I really blew it on that one. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) horror flick Mirrors came in fourth place, while Pineapple Express, distributed by Sony (NYSE: SNE), came in fifth. I saw Express last week. Cool movie.

I love summer, not only for the weather, but also for all the movies making their way to the multiplexes. According to this article at Marketwatch, for the first six weeks of the U.S. summer box-office season, the total gross for theatrical movies hit $1.46 billion, a statistic that represents about a 5% increase year-over-year in the comparable period. You can thank hits such as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for driving the nice results.

Now, I don't mean to rain on this parade, but I'm afraid I find myself in a similar frame of mind in terms of a piece I wrote back in March about the 2007 movie-business statistics. You see, I always like to look at number of tickets sold as a barometer for the true health of Hollywood. The number of tickets sold increased 1.6% to 206.2 million. The average price of a movie ticket rose 2.9% to $7.08. Now, while I am glad to see an increase this time around in terms of number of tickets sold, I don't find a 1.6% increase terribly exciting. It tells me that the theater industry still needs to convince people that it's fun to get out of the house, away from the giant televisions and the snazzy home-theater systems, and chomp on overpriced popcorn in a dark auditorium. Going to movie theaters is something that, in my opinion, can't truly be replicated in the home. A lot of people don't share that opinion, however.

The challenge for Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal is to make people feel that waiting for the DVD shouldn't be the norm. The shared experience of a movie screening is a unique part of culture, and studios need to communicate this fact through their marketing campaigns. I do think there is more work ahead for Hollywood. Focus on the number of tickets sold, that's the big metric.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

A summer of success at the box office? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Jun 2008 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) movie The Incredible Hulk was incredibly disappointing (to me at least). No, I'm not talking about the quality of the movie. I didn't actually see it. But Boxofficemojo is reporting that it has grossed an estimated $54.5 million at domestic theaters over the weekend. While that was good enough for first place, it wasn't good enough for shareholders. The movie bombed, plain and simple.

Why am I being so hard on a number-one movie? It's not so difficult to understand. The awful Hulk movie that was released back in 2003 grossed $62.1 million in its opening weekend. There's no way to spin this. We've had five years of inflation between that terrible flick and this new iteration. Simply put, it should have grossed at least $65/$70 million, especially on the heels of Iron Man. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I don't like the fact that the success of Marvel's first movie of the summer didn't synergize a little better with the angry green guy.

Focusing on the positive, Marvel was able to beat DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its Kung Fu Panda project. The cartoon took in about $34 million and came in second. M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening, distributed by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), did okay by coming in third with a gross of around $30 million. Some analysts thought that the horror flick would do a little bit less than that number. Personally, I thought it should have come in second place considering Shyamalan's name, but I guess people aren't as excited as they used to be about his exercises in cinematic twists (the fact that it was rated R also inhibited its blockbuster potential). Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Adam Sandler comedy You Don't Mess with the Zohan did in fact get messed with yet again, dropping two spots to fourth place, grossing about $16 million. I've heard bad reviews on this one. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull were daring enough for fifth place. Everyone's favorite archaeologist has now breached the $275 million level. Great to see a favorite character of mine from the past doing so well.

Continue reading Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb?

Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Viacom (NYSE: VIA) issued its Q1 earnings results on Friday. The conglomerate seems to be doing all right with its strategy of leveraging content to drive growth. Revenues were up 15%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share jumped 29% to $0.44. But it can be seen that there's a dichotomy going on if you look into the performance of the two main operating segments: media networks saw its operating income rock up 15% while filmed entertainment tallied up an operating loss for the quarter. Even though that loss was narrowed by over 40%, I always get disappointed when I see a studio in the red -- it reminds me that the movie business is a risky, oftentimes low-return one.

But, should you be down on Viacom's movie business right now? Maybe not, since Paramount is currently distributing Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man -- see Sheldon Liber's recent article about the film. That should hopefully improve things going forward, as might Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Viacom also will be distributing Kung Fu Panda for DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). Sumner Redstone is certainly counting on these projects to be huge. And speaking of huge, the company's Rock Band continues to fuel the media networks segment -- it's sold by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), and it is apparently holding its own against Activision's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero. The synergies between MTV and the music system are obviously pushing this one. Maybe the studio should get in on the video-game action by greenlighting a movie based on Rock Band -- maybe Jack Black could star in it!

Overall, I think Viacom is performing as it should, and I hope the movie division can bring in some profits during the coming months (I think it will). As for the stock, I'd ideally like to see it a bit lower before I'd consider buying it.

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

Viacom's Q1 earnings were solid -- how does the stock look? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 03 May 2008 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios had a pretty kickin' year at the multiplex in 2007. According to Boxofficemojo.com, Paramount came out on top in terms of market share at 15.5%. It distributed some great hits -- Transformers, the DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) films Shrek the Third and Bee Movie, Will Ferrel's Blades of Glory comedy, and Eddie Murphy's Norbit. Viacom's movie business seems to be doing better. According to the latest 10Q for the reporting period ending September 30, 2007, operating income for the filmed-entertainment segment was $71.7 million versus a loss of nearly $8 million in the previous year's comparable quarter (the nine-month period still showed a loss). So, Paramount needs to keep the momentum going this year. How will it top the power of last summer's blockbuster Transformers? With a little swashbuckling help from Indiana Jones, of course!

To get things started, the media company sent out a press release alerting fans of fast-paced adventure that the first teaser trailer for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will be released on February 14 during ABC's Good Morning America program and in theaters across the globe. For those of us who've been waiting with a will of patience that was oftentimes as excruciating and as taxing as sitting through yet another news item about Britney Spears' latest mental breakdown, this is one heck of a Valentine, although I do hate teaser trailers (they are, after all, such a tease!).

Will the new Indy flick be a big hit this summer? I think it will be, although it isn't an absolute given, since a lot of the younger demos probably find the Raiders aesthetic a bit antiquated these days; plus, there will be stiff competition from Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Pixar cartoon Wall-E, Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight, and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Incredible Hulk project. Still, we're talking about George Lucas and Steven Spielberg here, and they still retain a lot of cultural pull with all demographics. Viacom and Paramount will probably be happy with the results from Crystal Skull come the summer , although I think it's safe to assume that Lucas and Spielberg will be taking a large portion of the grosses. Nevertheless, Viacom is in on the action, and I'm sure it wouldn't want it any other way.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney and Marvel.

Indiana Jones could deliver big profits for Viacom (VIA) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 12 Feb 2008 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.