To quote one of my college professors (with thick Chicago accent) "Ya pays yer nickle 'n ya takes ya bes' shot." This year I wrote over 200 stories and reviewed even more stocks. Going over all of this material I came up with the ones listed here as my four best and four worst of the year.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52 is Up to 13,359.61 (+6.86%)
• NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57 is Up to 2,676.79 (+10.36%)
• Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 1,424.73 is Up to 1,476.37 (+3.62%)

Continue reading Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007

Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Dec 2007 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

My newest portfolio is my worst portfolio and the only one that is negative. How did this happen? The poison financials and my bad timing, that's how! It is embarrassing, to say the least, and I take no joy in reporting my blunders. I hope readers will appreciate the fact that I am willing to discuss everything and not just the bright spots.

Furthermore when I put my foot in my mouth I do it with style and grandeur. Take note of the story titles because they would be hysterical except for the fact that I really did buy these stocks and I still own them with one exception; so I'm not laughing too loud. I sold Washington Mutual in all but one portfolio at $36 a share. The following indicates the date of the original story. The closing prices are from Monday, November 26, 2007.

• April 11, 2007: Chasing Value: Washington Mutual - WaMu (NYSE: WM) closed at $16.81 down from $39.00: A loss of -56.9%
• April 17, 2007: Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing (NYSE: BSC) closed at $91.04 down from $148.00: A loss of -38.5%
• May 1, 2007: Chasing Value: IndyMac Bancorp - once in a lifetime (NYSE: IMB) closed at $7.82 down from $30.09: A loss of -74%
• June 19, 2007: Chasing Value: Bank Popular (BPOP) should be very popular (NYSE: BPOP) closed at $9.10 down from $17.00: A loss of -46.5%

No title could be more ironic and more wrong than the IMB story, unless of course your objective was to lose money. One of my older and wiser friends (A.L.) who manages money for high net worth individuals raised his eyebrows as he repeated the story title to me the day the story was posted. Now I hear his words every time I think about IMB. Had you followed my lead into the fog your average loss would be about 54%!

Continue reading Serious Money: My poison financials: WM, BSC, IMB, & BPOP

Serious Money: My poison financials: WM, BSC, IMB, & BPOP originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Nov 2007 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

You really should watch Hilary Kramer: Market has further to fall, but there is opportunity in KDN, CBI, ACH to get some market perspective. The video was posted on August 21, 2007 and she makes some very good stock recommendations. Over the past 18 months that I have been looking at her picks versus those of James Cramer, I have found that you would have done better with Hilary.

While giving her full credit for her stock picking and market coverage I find I must strongly disagree with a statement she made. Cautioning viewers that " There is going to be a meltdown" is not overly alarming, but I take great exception to her stating that "This market can go down 25%." She shared her fear that there are 9000 hedge funds and that 3000 might close down.

It is possible that people may panic in certain circumstances and the market can stray into irrational short-term behavior once again, but I find her reasoning a little soft. Let's assume that the 9000 hedge funds own 50% of the total equity in the stock market (they don't) and one third go out of business, that would equate to a 15% collapse of value (unscientific, I know, but there is some correlation).

Continue reading Kramer said a possible 25% market collapse?

Kramer said a possible 25% market collapse? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Aug 2007 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Plenty of investment guru's have suggested buying on fear and selling when greed reaches its pinnacle. Well I think the fear side is self evident but I'm not hearing about many analysts who are brave enough to buy right now. As a matter of fact I only hear that this would be a very foolish time to invest in the financial sector, in particular, any stocks with sub-prime or "Alt-A" mortgage exposure.

For this reason, contrarian that I am, I thought I would speak out about my recent BAD CALLS, or at least very premature calls, and start tracking them for all to see -- accepting the ribbing, tomato-throwing and blunt comments about the error of my ways.

I own four of the five stocks I will be following for the next year, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: IMB), Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP), and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). I wrote favorable comments on each and in the case of WM, more than once. Needless to say, I am under water on all of them. I do not own Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) but it will make for a fine pace car in the middle of this storm.

Continue reading Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM)

Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A few days ago I received the following inquiry from a frequent reader of my blogs on Chasing Value.

Hi Sheldon, what do you think about: Gannett Company (NYSE: GCI)

P/S - 1.72, P/B - 1.65, P/cash - 9.9, dividend - 2.1%, P/E - 12.4

Publishing sector - quite hot at the moment? ...alex

Alex , you are developing a pretty good understanding of the numbers I look at. Now you should add something else to your calculations. The actual business it is in. When we look at American Home Mortgage Investment (NYSE: AHM) (see Someone asked about Amercian Home Mortgage) or IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) (see Chasing Value: IndyMac Bancorp - once in a lifetime,) or many other fallen banks and mortgage companies, we can be confident they will bounce back if they survive the lows. There will always be banks.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Gannett as value play - not for me

Chasing Value: Gannett as value play - not for me originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 May 2007 16:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is a short follow-up to yesterday's Chasing Value: IndyMac Bancorp - once in a lifetime where I highlighted my contrary position to the market selloff of IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) sugesting there was opportunity here.

The additional information that I think should be significant to serious value investors is what insiders are doing. In April they were all buying. From Motley Fool April 11, 2007. "The one guy who should know better than anybody else how bad it could get for IndyMac's Alt-A portfolio -- its very own Chief Financial Officer Kevin Scott -- is the most recent insider to buy shares."

I gleaned this Quote from secform4.com/insider-trading Peter Lynch, "Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise" The site indicates that during the month of April, in addition to the stock buys by the CFO, the President, two Directors and three Executive Vice Presidents all bought shares.

Those of you who are new to Bloggingstocks.com can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: While writing yesterday's story a limit order was executed on IMB, so I own this stock.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value: Insider buying at IndyMac Bancorp originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 May 2007 18:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Buying on bad news is tough to do but this stock looks like it has been kicked around plenty and might be a good bet. IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) is trading under a new symbol this morning, (formerly 'NDE'), reported earnings down 34% in its most recent quarter. It also gave a pessimistic outlook for its second quarter earnings.

The housing market sucks big-time and a recovery is not in sight. It is also suffering due to guilt by association with the sub-prime lending shadow which has been cast far and wide. To make matters even more dismal I was informed by two of my brokers that the short interest in IndyMac has been building all year and now stands at approximately 35% of outstanding shares, a substantial amount. Might be time to pass the ant-acid's around the room for any queasy folks out there.

Well if the key to the stock market is to buy low and sell high, I thought I would bring IndyMac to readers' attention and share what I see as a potential opportunity. The most startling thing about the stock fundamentals and something I do not ever remember seeing before, is that at yesterday's closing price of $30.24, the trailing P/E was 6.41 and the dividend yield was 6.46% - YES THAT'S RIGHT -- the Yield is higher than the P/E ratio! That's unbelievable!

So not to be foolish I immediately started checking IMB's credit-worthiness, could it cover? Moody's, Fitch, Standard & Poors, and Dunn & Bradstreet all rate the company as stable and give it a BBB from last June through the most recent by Fitch as of April 2007. The bank started in 1985 and seems like it will be fine over the long haul.

Continue reading Chasing Value: IndyMac Bancorp - once in a lifetime

Chasing Value: IndyMac Bancorp - once in a lifetime originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 May 2007 21:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.