As the U.S. market wraps up a wild day in which central banks cut rates in unison, one sector has no doubt at all about where it wants to go -- down. Three leading insurance companies have lost as much as a 28% of their stock market value in today's trading alone. How so? As I posted, insurers are the next part of the financial foundation to crumble due to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) gone sour.

Here's the latest insurance industry carnage:

• XL Capital (NYSE: XL) -28%. The property-casualty insurer holds $29 billion in asset-backed securities such as MBSs and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), 330% of its shareholders' equity.
• Met Life (NYSE: MET) -27%. This life insurer announced plans to sell 75 million shares and to fire an unspecified number of employees. It also expects to earn between 83 cents and 93 cents per share -- way below analysts' $1.44 forecast.
• The Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) -21%. This property-casualty insurer holds $83 billion in fixed income securities such as MBSs, 421% of its shareholders' equity -- and the $22 billion in Level 3 -- difficult to value -- fixed income securities exceed its $19.7 billion in capital.

I expect this problem to affect every insurance company to some extent. Will the $810 billion rescue plan relieve these institutions of their bad investment decisions? We might know in a year. Until then, look out below.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

It was July 1, 2008 when I first posted Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The title speaks for itself. This update, after nine weeks and horrible market conditions, is through Friday October 3, 2008.

The index for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed Friday at 1,099.23 , down 14.12%.

Each of my five picks is beating the market and three of the five are actually up despite crushing news in the financial sector, unemployment and housing. Congress did pass a Wall Street backstop/bailout bill that President Bush has signed, but only after adding another 450 pages and $130 billion to the amount. Although the five stocks have averaged a 0.75% loss, as intended, they easily beat the S&P by 13.37%.

Here are the five stocks that I still think are worth considering. For my original rationale see the linked story above.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It closed Friday at $66.16 -- up 2.75%. JNJ was featured in Barron's this month as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It closed October 3 at $46.08 -- up 0.06% 0.62% Teva (of Isreal) is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger through the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals last month.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this insurance company is a sign of lower costs, and it's not done yet.

How many ways can I explain that what's going on is massively deflationary? How about by pointing out one of the most sensitive stocks to deflation: Prudential (NYSE: PRU) (Cramer's Take). Take a look at the move this stock has had from its lows. It's almost a 50% move! That's remarkable. It is a sign that everything is worth less than it was a couple of months ago!

I have long used the price of conservative insurance companies -- and PRU is a conservative one -- as a gauge of inflation. Now, I know that Barron's had a positive article about PRU this weekend, but all you really got was a rehash of what an analyst has been saying. That's not behind the gain.

This company is a bulwark of deflation. Why anyone thinks that inflation is still a problem after looking at that chart is just nuts.

The losses from Gustav are significant, but not nearly as bad as they could have been.

That's the early read regarding onshore / offshore property and infrastructure damaged caused by Hurricane Gustav, with losses pegged at $4 billion to $10 billion, according to estimates by Risk Management Solutions. In contrast, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused about $50 billion in damages.

Risk Management said losses from Gustav were lessened by the fact that the storm weakened, and hit the coastline as a Category 2 hurricane, and the fact that it came ashore about 70 miles southwest of New Orleans. Those factors, combined with better preparation by companies with vulnerable property in the area, will result in lower damages totals, Risk Management said.

However, RMS was quick to point out that the $4-10 billion damage total does not include loses from flooding in New Orleans that could occur in the days ahead.

Gustav: Little U.S. GDP impact

Economist David H. Wang, who runs U.S. GDP models each quarter, said Tuesday he expects "only a minimal U.S. GDP impact from Gustav."

"Of course human safety is the primary concern. But regarding regional GDP, the Southeast U.S. will incur a 0.1-0.3% GDP reduction in the third quarter from the hurricane, but the overall impact on U.S. GDP will be minimal," Wang said.

AIG (NYSE: AIG) may have a new CEO, but his track record is no better than that of the man he replaced. The firm said its second-quarter net loss was $5.36 billion, or $2.06 a share. AIG blamed the housing and credit markets, but, of course, the real trouble rests with its risk management. According to Reuters, "AIG said it recorded $5.56 billion in second quarter unrealized market valuation losses on credit default swaps, the same area that led to losses in the prior two quarters."

While the company's insurance and investing units are still profitable, AIG may have to post similar losses in the next two quarters if the US credit and housing markets get worse. It has already moved ahead with its plan to raise $20 billion. It may have to add substantially to that to offset big deficits .

With AIG's stock at about $25 and a market cap of $72 billion, another capital injection cold drive shares down to $20.

In other words, AIG's shares may be down over 50% this year, but that does not make them a good investment. The stock could actually still be one of the most risky among large-cap firms. AIG joins many other financial companies in finding that replacing CEOs does them no good.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

In the expectations game, Citigroup (NYSE: C) $2.5 billion loss is great news for Wall Street. Bloomberg News reports that the analysts it surveyed expected a $3.67 billion loss, or 54 cents a share -- so Citi's results were $1.2 billion better than expected. But there were wide variations on what analysts expected Citi to lose -- from 51 cents to 67 cents.

This reminds me of the story of the boy who comes home from school to tell his mother about a grade he got on a test. Rather than bow his head in shame, he walks into the kitchen with head held high and a big smile on his face. And he announces: "Great news mom! I got a 70!"

The key reason for Citi's loss is the $7 billion in credit-related write-downs it took. These included reductions in the stated value of its subprime mortgage exposure and its investments in monoline insurance companies including Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: ABK) after they lost their AAA credit ratings. Analysts expected write-downs as high as $12 billion.

This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.

State Farm is the world's largest mutual property and casualty company, which means its owned by its policy holders. In 2007, State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company paid $1.25 billion in dividends to its mutual auto insurance policy holders. (In the interest of full disclosure, I did get one of those checks.)

The corporate headquarters are based in Bloomington, Illinois, where State Farm was founded in 1922 by George J. Mecherle. He thought farmers were being charged too much for car insurance because they don't drive as much as city folk and didn't incur as many loses. Well, the insurance companies available at the time didn't agree with him, so he started his own car insurance company for farmers.

Today, State Farm has grown into the largest insurer of cars and homes in the United States, as well as the leading insurer of watercraft. State Farm is also a leader in insuring Canadian cars and homes. State Farm serves a total of 77 million auto, fire, life, and health policies in the U.S. and Canada with 67,000 employees and 17,000 agents. About half of its employees are involved in claims processing in one of its more than 390 claims offices.

For the purposes of this examination, let's set aside the fact that you can find reliable clinical research that shows that tobacco smokers cost the insurance industry less over their lifetimes than svelte nonsmokers do. This is simply due to the fact that we tend to die sooner. But that's a matter of insurance industry/government/pharmaceutical hijinx, to possibly discuss another time.

That aside, the item I'm bringing forward today is how the issue of lying smokers should be pursued by Whirlpool Corp.(NYSE: WHR). I'll not take issue against Whirlpool's insurance plan demanding a different level of premium payment from smokers. I'll not take issue against Whirlpool asking smokers to document their participation in the addiction. I'll not take issue against Whirlpool taking action against smokers who lied when claiming that they don't smoke. What I do argue against is the ludicrous notion that Whirlpool employees have turned on one another. It appears that's what the company expects us to believe.

Whirlpool management wants you to believe that they had 39 instances of one employee reporting another for serving their nicotine addiction in violation of what should be a confidential declaration of status. Whirlpool expects you to believe that these company "rats" know which smokers lied on their paper work and which didn't. Whirlpool expects you to believe that all policy violators are of hourly status and that violations by management staff either don't exist or aren't yet worth pursuing. Whirlpool expects us to believe that the company itself wasn't at the root of this all.

Markel Corporation (NYSE: MKL), insurer of specialty properties and real estate, recently acquired Specialized Insurance Inc., which focuses on insurance for service garages at car dealers and gas stations. The move is said to be in keeping with Markel's intentions to grow this sector of it's business. Specialized Insurance Inc. already acted as agent for Markel. Financial details of the acquisition remain undisclosed.

Markel has been in the business of insuring specialty properties and other niche markets since 1930. The company issues policies covering everything from archery ranges and railroads to pollution liabilities and paintball tournaments. The company has net annual cash flow from operating activities in excess of 500 million, but that figure has been in annual decline since 2004.

With the pervasive use of computers in our lives, the line between what's mine and yours sometimes gets blurred. I read an interesting post on TechDirt today that describes a patent that Big Blue, International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) was awarded. The article, entitled "IBM Patents Real-Time Auto Insurance Surcharges," describes the patent as "Location-Based Vehicle Risk Assessment System, which describes how surcharges will be added to your auto insurance premium when a GPS device reports that you drove into an area in IBM's bad neighborhood database."

While this certainly sounds invasive, it's part of a larger trend in the insurance industry that actually benefits us consumers. In fact, I've written before about Pointer Telocation Limited (Nasdaq: PNTR), a small Israeli firm that markets technology similar to that of Lo-Jack's. In my interview with the Pointer Chairman, Yossi Ben Shalom told investors about a project underway in the U.S. called "Pay as You Go," in which insurance companies are testing programs with technology providers like Pointer that would revolutionize the auto insurance industry.

According to Ben Shalom, "Some people in the industry are talking about a discount or incentive program to build insurance policies on a multitude of parameters. Instead of just selling a policy based on the collective risk profile of the insured, "Pay as You Go" would calibrate premiums on a month-to-month basis based on specific data on how and who drove the car. Imagine a policy that didn't charge a family with a 16-year old driver when he didn't drive the car that month. Which roads the insured drove on, who drove the car, when the car was driven – all this data can be supplied via Pointer equipment to an insurance firm. There are some small pilot tests going on currently which we are involved in. Right now, we're talking about a very small percentage of the overall market but this could be a big driver for Pointer in the future because you need our technology for this."

Looks like IBM wants to get in on a project that could ultimately lower our auto insurance premiums. Clearly, no one wants their insurance company or anyone spying on them but with the right incentives and consumer protections, this new technology and new program could be great, no?

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

An op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal wonders (subscription required) whether Eliot Spitzer's high-profile demands for change at AIG (NYSE: AIG) and Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) did more harm than good:

"In both cases, Mr. Spitzer issued ultimatums to the company boards that they had to replace their CEOs, or else he'd indict the company," the paper says. "Both companies have struggled ever since."

Before we get on Spitzer too hard, it's worth noting that almost all companies see their stock prices go down following the announcement of investigations and charges. News items like this generally reflect serious problems at the company -- and mark the first time investors become aware of certain issues that the company hadn't previously disclosed. If regulators worried about driving down share prices by launching investigations, they wouldn't be able to launch any investigations! Ultimately, investors are protected by zealous enforcement of the law.

However the notion of an Attorney General essentially installing at executives at public companies is frightening one and hopefully the failure of Mr. Cherkasky -- his resignation as CEO prompted a 5% run-up in the stock -- will put an end to experiments like this one for a long time to come.

Ideally institutional shareholders would lobby for strong upper management replacements in the face of scandal.

Aon (NYSE: AOC) thinks that risk brokerage and consulting has the best future, in terms of margins and growth.

To that end, the company announced Monday that it is selling off its underwriting businesses. Combined Insurance Company was sold for $2.4 billion to ACE Limited (NYSE: ACE), while Munich Re bought Aon's Sterling Life segment for $352 million.

Yes, even in the massive insurance business, this is a good chunk of change for Aon.

From today's (subscription required) Wall Street Journal:

Employers who provide health insurance often use financial incentives, such as contributions toward premiums, to encourage workers to participate in wellness programs like smoking-cessation courses.

Now some employers are wielding a stick as well as a carrot. Employees at some companies who are overweight, smoke, or have high cholesterol, for instance, and who don't participate in supplementary wellness programs, will pay more for health insurance. In extreme cases, employees' insurance deductibles could rise by $2,000.

Of course, this is generating some scandal and talk of possible lawsuits.

It reminds me a little bit of my favorite scene from favorite scene from Spinal Tap, where Nigel Tufnel explains to an observer that the band's amps go to 11, rather than 10. The incredulous man asks how that really makes them go louder -- they only go to a certain volume, regardless of what number it's labeled.

Similarly: Charging a premium for engaging in an unhealthy behavior is not different from offering a reward for not engaging in the same behavior in any sort of meaningful way.

This seems like one big labeling issue, but it should give trial lawyers something to keep them busy.

Over the past 12 months, the S&P Supercomposite Life and Health Insurance Index has risen by 10.73%, outpacing the 2.29% gain in the S&P 500 index and the 18.17% loss in the S&P financial index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (AMEX: XLF).

Unlike other financial shares, many of which have suffered the ill effects of billion-dollar writedowns and continuing upheaval in global credit markets, some insurance stocks have been seen as something of a safe haven. With their large investment portfolios, insurers have also benefited from strength in global equity markets, at least until recently.

No doubt the question remains open whether life and health insurers are immune to the contagion being felt elsewhere. Regardless, the appearance of a bearish double top in both the absolute and sector-relative charts suggests the group is due for at least a short-term pullback.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Insurance holding company James River Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: JRVR) will be acquired by a member of the D.E. Shaw Group, based in Bermuda. The acquisition should be finalized by the end of December 2007. James River Group is not seeking a buyer because it is in financial trouble. Far from it. The company posted good numbers in its recent 3Q 2007 earnings release. Underwriting profit for the quarter increased 10% to $11 million, not including $1 million spent in acquisition costs. Net income increased to just over $10 million, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) up 9% to $0.63. Excluding year-to-date (YTD) acquisition costs of $3 million, YTD EPS of $1.82 represents a 20% increase.

James River's Workers' Compensation unit posted significantly higher profit margins, due both to lower losses and better management of expenses. Net investment income increased $1 million to $6.3 million, a 20% gain. Buried in the earnings release, however, is the fact that the company holds $4.3 million worth of sub-prime mortgages in its investment portfolio. This may be a problem down to road for the new owners. James River Group is currently rated A- by A.M. Best Company.

Given the company's impending acquisition, CEO J. Adam Abram offered no guidance for 4Q 2007, nor held a conference call to discuss 3Q 2007 numbers.