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AIG in ruins, huge quarterly loss

AIG (NYSE: AIG) may have a new CEO, but his track record is no better than that of the man he replaced. The firm said its second-quarter net loss was $5.36 billion, or $2.06 a share. AIG blamed the housing and credit markets, but, of course, the real trouble rests with its risk management. According to Reuters, "AIG said it recorded $5.56 billion in second quarter unrealized market valuation losses on credit default swaps, the same area that led to losses in the prior two quarters."

While the company's insurance and investing units are still profitable, AIG may have to post similar losses in the next two quarters if the US credit and housing markets get worse. It has already moved ahead with its plan to raise $20 billion. It may have to add substantially to that to offset big deficits .

With AIG's stock at about $25 and a market cap of $72 billion, another capital injection cold drive shares down to $20.

In other words, AIG's shares may be down over 50% this year, but that does not make them a good investment. The stock could actually still be one of the most risky among large-cap firms. AIG joins many other financial companies in finding that replacing CEOs does them no good.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Forbes expert 'quacks' for Aflac (AFL)

Aflac (NYSE: AFL) is a new addition to the "Borderless Portfolio" maintained by global expert John Christy. Here's the latest from his industry-leading Forbes International Investment Report.

"If you own a television, chances are you're quite familiar with the infamous squawking duck in Aflac's commercials. Aflac has also been in the news lately as the first American company to give shareholders a 'say on pay', or the ability to vote on executive compensation.

"Less well known, however, is Aflac's huge presence in the Japanese insurance market. In 2007, roughly
75% of the company's pre-tax operating earnings were generated in Japan.

"Alfac has been doing business in Japan for more than 30 years, and one in four Japanese households has an Aflac insurance policy. In Japan, Aflac sells healthcare policies for certain things that aren't covered by the national healthcare system, as well as life insurance. And, yes, they have a talking duck in their ads over there too.

"At a time when many financial companies are reporting massive write-offs, Aflac reiterated its target of 15% earnings growth this year, and double-digit growth in 2009. Aflac Japan is doing its part to help drive this growth with 19% operating earnings growth in the first quarter of 2008."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Top Picks 2007: Adamo banks on Lloyds TSB for total return

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lloyds TSB Group PLC (NYSE: LYG) is a favorite conservative stock idea for 2007 from Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus.

"While it is not the Lloyd's of London of specialty insurance fame," points out Adamo, "this London-based financial services powerhouse has roots dating back to 1765, and operates in three segments: U.K. retail banking; insurance and investments; and wholesale and international banking. It also provides brokerage, asset management, and pension services.

"It's not exactly exciting, but I think it will noticeably outpace the market in 2007. What it has going for it is financial clout, with a $60 billion market capitalization and a current dividend yield of 5.7%. Growth in earnings is expected to come in around 12.5% from 2006 to 2007.

"Lloyds currently trades for 11.25 times expected 2007 EPS of $3.86 per share. I look for total return to come in at around 18% in 2007. Lloyds' high yield provides cover in a down market, and may add extra price appreciation as investors go for yield in a falling market. That could push total return to the 25% range.

"Another significant factor in its favor to consider is the likely appreciation of the British pound sterling against the U.S. dollar, which will provide a boost to returns for U.S. investors."

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Last updated: November 21, 2008: 09:50 PM

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