Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) shares fell today with most other tech stocks after Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) lowered its second-quarter revenue outlook to a range between $875 million and $950 million, well below analysts' expectations of $1.1 billion. NVDA cited end-market weakness for the lower forecast, which could be a bad sign for INTC. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on INTC.
After hitting a one-year high of $27.99 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $18.05 in January. This morning, INTC opened at $20.62. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.26 and a high of $20.80. As of 12:10, INTC is trading at $20.65, down 0.28 (-1.3%). The chart for INTC looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $23 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.0% return in six weeks as long as INTC is below $23 at August expiration. Intel would have to rise by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.
As it prepares to report its first quarter results, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) may need to raise $3B to $4B to support its balance sheet, meaning its first quarter loss could be higher than the anticipated $300M, according to the Wall Street Journal. The capital raise would likely be through new common shares.
Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) shareholders are suing the company over an employee severance plan they say was intended to help block its takeover by Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), adding between $462M and $2.1B to Microsoft's costs,the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Financial Times reported that Momentive Performance Materials, a company owned by private-equity firm Apollo Management, has exercised its option to suspend cash payments on part of its debt.
As manufacturers push to compete in the "netbook" category, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) admitted to shortages of its Atom microprocessor. In an interview with with the Financial Times, Intel's executive vice-president, Sean Maloney, said the company had received more orders than expected for the low-power processor.
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) shares opened in the green this morning but have dropped as the day moved on after rumors surfaced that the EU was planning to take action against competitor Intel (NASDAQ: INTC). AMD headed back down after the EU denied that it has yet reached a decision in the matter. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AMD.
After hitting a one-year high of $16.19 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $5.31 in January. This morning, AMD opened at 7.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $6.77 and a high of $7.07. As of 12:45, AMD is trading at $6.80, down $0.12 (-1.7%). The chart for AMD looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $9 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in five months as long as AMD is below $9 at October expiration. AMD would have to rise by more than 32% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: U.S. semiconductors, Teekay Offshore and Oplink Communications were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman upgraded the U.S. Semiconductor Sector, including Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Attractive from Neutral. The firm believes semi fundamentals are poised to improve in 2H08 and that valuations are reasonable.
Wachovia upgraded Teekay Offshore (NYSE: TOO) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and increased distribution growth outlook following the acquisition of an additional 25% ownership interest in Teekay Offshore Operating, L.P.
Merriman upgraded shares of Oplink Communications (NASDAQ: OPLK) to Buy from Neutral as it believes the company is an attractive takeover target following the Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSR) and Optium (NASDAQ: OPTM) merger, given its low-cost Chinese manufacturing capacity and attractive $140M cash balance.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to its Conviction Buy List.
William Blair raised Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG) to Outperform from Market Perform.
After hitting a one-year high of $27.99 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $18.05 in January. INTC opened this morning at $23.85. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.76 and a high of $24.29. As of 12:15, INTC is trading at $24.16, up $0.40 (1.7%). The chart for INTC looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $21 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.7% return in just two months as long as INTC is above $21 at July expiration. Intel would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
According to people familiar with the matter, Robert Verrone, one of the most zealous commercial real-estate lenders during the industry's boom, will leave Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) within the next week, the Wall Street Journal reported.
WEB SITES:
Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice is probing whether UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) helped clients evade American taxes. In an e-mailed statement, the firm said one senior bank employee was "briefly detained" by authorities.
Bloomberg also reported that Vallejo, California's city council voted to go into bankruptcy. Officials said that after talks with labor unions failed to win salary concessions from police and fire fighters, the city does not have enough money to pay its bills.
According to a rumor, TechCrunch reported that the Yahoo Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) board of directors yesterday authorized Yahoo chairman Roy Bostock, rather than CEO Jerry Yang, to call Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer about re-starting negotiations.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Intel is worth an evaluation.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is the world's largest semiconductor maker, as measured by revenue and unit shipments, and is the dominant microprocessor manufacturer for personal computers.
In general, analysts expect F2008 revenue to increase 5-7%, after an 8% increase in F2007. The conventional wisdom in semiconductor analysis land now suggests that smaller/more-portable computer forms and media-rich PDAs will drive strong PC and PDA microprocessor sales.
Further, Intel remains the leader in next-generation chip technology, and its product mix remains superior. Gross margins should increase, as a result of lower unit costs and improved plant utilization. Also, high-performance chip prices should increase noticeably.
Ever since Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) announced that it had plans to partner with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), there has been a steady and rather disconcerting direction seen for Advanced Micro Device shares.
The real question is: Is it a buy into earnings? As that insightful financial analyst Borat would say: Ish no think so....
Goldman Sachs has continued its stance on AMD as a SELL: (4/8/08)
AMD downwardly revised its Q108 revenue guidance on Monday after the market close due to lower than expected sales across all business segments. The company now expects Q108 revenues to be -15% qoq or $1.5bn versus its previous expectation that Q108 revenues would be in-line with normal seasonality of -5% to -10% qoq. Additionally, AMD will be implementing a 10% workforce reduction by the end of Q308. We are reducing our estimates on lower revenues: CY08 goes to -$2.20 from -$1.65; CY09 goes to -$1.30 from -$0.75; CY10 goes to -$0.30 from $0.40.
In addition, there is an overriding concern that there has been a continual burn-rate that has become alarming. Now, AMD is saddled with over $5 billion of debt and only $1 billion of cash. Not the right balance for a tech company. This is even more worrisome as we have been seeing a rise in cash for many within the sector. In a recent WSJ article, Pui-Wing Tam explored some of the rationale as companies hoard money to protect against an economic downturn.
She pointed out a few selected tech companies cash positions as a percentage of assets: (source: WSJ/Strategas) Apple: 62% Google: 57% Cisco :41% Qualcom: 40% eBay:39%
How does AMD compare to that? Not so well ... Goldman goes on further to discuss the idea that at the rate of burn they are seeing, AMD will have no other alternative than to do some type of equity offering. Of course this will not be taken well by shareholders who will see further dilution of their holdings. I wonder why investors would buy shares anyway, unless they are hoping for a miraculous buyout/rescue.
Although, there the is the odd notion that Wall Street does not seem to care much if companies are in hock up to their eyebrows. In fact, in this market, AMD could actually thrive as investors are giving a pass to many companies with worse news and outlooks. Even so, while you just have to wonder how much worse it can get, I would not be involved here since there are plenty of other names that seem to have a much better outlook.
Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients do not hold positions of AMD as of the date of publish. BUT, they do have LONG positions in MSFT, APPL and INTC.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) shares are trading higher after tech bellwether Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) reported a first quarter profit of $1.44 billion, or 25 cents per share, in line with analysts' estimates. While many investors were expecting weak results, INTC noted in a press release that microprocessor sales were in line with seasonal trends, which could be a good sign for MRVL. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MRVL.
After hitting a one-year high of $20.04 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $9.77 in January. MRVL opened this morning at $10.76. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.53 and a high of $10.95. As of 12:30, MRVL is trading at $10.91, up $0.41 (3.9%). The chart for MRVL looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $7.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just four months as long as MRVL is above $7.50 at August expiration. Marvell would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) slightly beat consensus: Q1 revenue was slightly ahead ($9.67 billion vs. $9.63 billion consensus). EPS was $0.25, but asset impairment, restructuring charges, and tax rate were higher than expected, so operating EPS was stronger than consensus. June revenue outlook in-line, full-year margin outlook slightly better than expected. Stock up strong in aftermarket.
Key points
Microprocessor and chipset businesses as expected. Microprocessor units lower sequentially, with ASP flat. * NAND revenue flat as significant price declines offset unit growth.
Gross margin: 53.8%, slightly below consensus of 54%.
Tax rate slightly higher than expected: 33.5% vs. 31%, and restructuring and asset-impairment charges $329 million vs. $100 million estimate. Operating income stronger than appears.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) announced its first quarter (Q1) earnings today. Intel, the world's largest maker of computer chips, made some 25 cents a share, or some $1.44 billion. The higher than expected revenue of $9.67 billion, however, beat out analyst's expectations, which is probably why shares in after-hours trading have been trending upwards. This same time last year Intel saw $1.64 billion and 28 cents a share, demonstrating that Intel is feeling the economic pinch that everyone else is, despite beating expectations.
All in all, that's a 12% drop in year-over-year profits when comparing the same quarter.
Next quarter Intel is expecting $9 to $9.6 billion in sales.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) to post a smaller profit for the first quarter, while Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is expected to report a profit gain. Both companies are scheduled to report results on Tuesday.
Intel is expected to earn 25 cents per share, which is down 7.4% from the same period in 2007 when it earned 27 cents. But the company has tended to beat quarterly estimates recently. In the third quarter of 2007, it beat the consensus estimate by 2.1%. However, in the fourth quarter it fell short by 2.2%.
Santa Clara, California-based Intel remains the leading maker of semiconductors. In the past year, its revenues were $38.3 billion and its net income totaled $6.97 billion. Its EPS growth forecast for the year is 9.7%, which is better than the technology sector average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts is still to buy Intel.
The stock has gained 3.8% in the past year and it trades at a P/E of 18.00. Shares closed Friday at $21.24.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) shares fell today with most other tech stocks after Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) lowered its second-quarter revenue outlook to a range between $875 million and $950 million, well below analysts' expectations of $1.1 billion. NVDA cited end-market weakness for the lower forecast, which could be a bad sign for INTC. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on INTC..gif){kind=logo}
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Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Intel is worth an evaluation.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
Intel Corp.
Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript
Anheuser-Busch (BUD) sues InBev, what's next?
Wal-Mart might help your portfolio during the recession
