Thursday evening the Federal Reserve Bank hiked the emergency loan rate for banks from 0.50% to 0.75% effective Friday, surprising some market participants. The Fed is trying to wean banks off some of the cheap made available during the worst of the financial crisis. But this is also a tightening of monetary policy while the economy is still weak.

The Feds main discount rate remains unchanged -- somewhere between 0 and 0.25% -- so this new hike should not have a big effect on consumers.

The U.S. economy lost only 11,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate fell to 10%, from 10.2% Good news, right?

For the Federal Reserve, the new set of variables spells confusion for its stated policy: Interest rates will remain low for an "extended period."

Now the Fed is getting closer to the day when it will raise interest rates. While one month of low jobless numbers is not sufficient to say a trend has started, it will certainly bear upon the policy statement at the Fed meeting on December 15-16.

The U.S. dollar continued to decline today, and has helped push gold prices up sharply in today's action.

The dollar has been very weak lately, and as more concern mounts of the dollar's strength more investors are rushing into the precious metal, which traded up as high as $1,069.70 today, and is currently up $1.70 an ounce to $1,059.20.

In another sign that the housing market may be emerging from its slump, applications for mortgages rose last week by a nice 12.8 percent.

The news comes from the Mortgage Bankers Association which stated that its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications rose to 668.5, which is the highest that the index has read since back on May 22.

We have all been waiting to hear news that the housing market has rebounded, and we got a little indication that things were improving today as homebuilder sentiment rose this month to its highest level since September.

According to the National Association of Home Builders its index of builder confidence jumped two points in July to 17. This is the first time the index has hit 17 since last September.

For the fourth month in a row, Bank of England interest rates will remain at the record low of 0.5%. In an announcement today, the UK's central bank said it would not expand its quantitative easing of financial markets, much to the surprise of the market. The bank has been buying up assets aggressively, printing cash to finance what is likely to be £125 billion in purchases by the end of this month.

Financial markets expected a much different play, involving an increase in this asset purchase target by another £25 billion (to £150 billion). This move would have let the Bank of England shove even more money into the economy through next month, which is when the bank publishes its latest quarterly economic forecast.

As the housing market continues to find its footing, one welcome trend for potential home buyers has been falling home prices. The main consequence of the troubled housing market has been a sharp increase in home inventories, and this has led to a massive drop in home prices, and we see news today that home prices are the most affordable that they have been in the past 18 years.

The Housing Opportunity Index tracks home prices, and it reported that during the first three months of this year, 72.5% of homes for sale fell within the affordability range, up from 60% during the last quarter of 2008. This sharp jump is another testament to just how quickly home prices have eroded over the past few months.

This morning, the Bank of England's Monetary Police Committee (BOE) decided to keep its interest rate at the current all-time low of 0.5%, as was expected. The BOE announced that it would continue its 75-billion pound program, which is supposed to increase the money supply in hopes of keeping deflation at bay.

The BOE stated that, "since its previous meeting a total of just over 26 billion pounds of asset purchases had been made and that it would take a further two months to complete that program." Some experts believe the BOE will hold interest rates at 0.5% "well into 2010." Before the bank made its decision, the 10-year yield was hovering around 3.34%.

We all know that the real estate market is in trouble, and another sign of just how bad things are came out today as the National Association of Realtors announced another steep drop in home prices during the fourth quarter.

The NAR started keeping comprehensive data on home sales back in 1979, and in that time period there has not been another quarter that saw home prices drop as much as they did in the fourth quarter of last year. So just how much did values drop? A massive 12.4%.

Oil prices inched up slightly today, despite the fact that inventories swelled much more than the market had anticipated last week. Going into today's inventory report from the U.S. Department of Energy, analysts had been expecting to see an increase in oil inventories last week. But, on average, analysts had been expecting that the increase would be around 3.4 million barrels, and the actual increase was much larger, with a reported 6.2 million increase: a very bearish indicator.

Typically when we see inventories rise so much higher than expected, we would expect to see traders push oil prices lower, but not today. Instead, oil was able to move a bit higher on the day, trading up 58 cents a barrel to $42.16. Earlier in the session prices had been up as high as $43.60.

You read that right. Bloomberg.com has reported that The bank of England has lowered it's benchmark interest rate to it's lowest point since the bank was founded in 1694. How much more proof is needed to make obvious the fact that people and businesses just aren't borrowing money any more?

Even if some stalwart soul had the inclination to borrow some money, are there banks out there which are lending it? In the face of unemployment levels which some say honest calculations put up as high as 16%, banks are becoming adverse to lending money to anyone who might actually need it. Of course I can get you credit card applications all day long, if you're willing to pay upwards of 19% interest on new money.

So you have to wonder, when is it all going to break loose. Honestly folks, if the promise of increased revenue reserves was in any way going to help us, don't you think the contraction would have slowed by now? The only way additional cash will correct anything is if that cash is put directly into the hands of the people who pay the bills. Of course, we all know that will never happen. Our government will continue to drop wads of our yet unpaid tax dollars into the laps of their corporate sponsors. That, for now, is where the buck now stops.

Jan. 22: Dow 11,971 (down 128 points); trading range, 658 points

The specter of continuing the ugliness seen overnight in the global equity markets and a 95% decline in fourth-quarter (2007) net income at Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) combined to shake up those in charge of U.S. monetary policy.

So, facing the possibility of a 500-point drop in the Dow following the long holiday weekend, the Fed sprang into action early to shore up the markets.

The move was a 75-basis-point pre-market intermeeting cut just eight days before the Fed's regularly scheduled meeting to drop the fed funds rate to 3.5% and the discount rate to 4%. The Fed made this move "in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth," adding, "appreciable downside risks to growth remain."

The Dow battled all day to recover from an early session drop of 459 points to close down only 128 by the closing bell.

Greg Tucker is the executive editor of OptionsZone.com.

March 18: Dow 12,392 (up 420 points); trading range, 435 points

Just one day after the collapse of Bear Stearns, the market rallied on a 75-basis-point Fed rate cut and better-than-expected earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Lehman Brothers (OTC: LEHMQ).

Looks like someone wasn't paying attention.

The clear focus was on the much-anticipated Fed cut that dropped the fed funds and discount rate to 2.25% and 2.5%, respectively.

There was a slight pause during the session, as some hoped for a 100-basis-point cut, but traders pushed onward to finish strong and add another 100 points to the Dow before the close.

All sectors rallied into positive territory for the session and the S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day percentage move since October 2002.

Greg Tucker is the executive editor of OptionsZone.com.

This strategy went from being a modestly successful trade through October to a hero-sized trade in the past 45 days.

The Fed funds rate, the most widely followed interest rate the banks charge each other for overnight lending, topped out in August 2006, at 5.25%.

When the Fed started easing rates thereafter, no one at the economic think tanks forecasted anything close to what we are seeing today (namely a Fed funds rate of zero to 0.25% -- a decline of a full 5% in 17 months).

The decline in rates started out so orderly and coordinated that it seemed almost too good to be true, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high, topping 14,000 for the first time in July 2007.

However, the quarter-point cuts gave way to a three-quarter-point cut, or 75 basis points, on Jan. 22, 2008, signaling that the Fed was seeing a material breakdown in the credit and housing markets. Following that seemingly radical rate cut, just eight days later on Jan. 30, the Fed again slashed the Fed funds rate by another half point, or 50 basis points, to 3%.

From there Bernanke & Co. held steady for a couple months to see if any good would come of their efforts.

When evidence of further erosion in the credit markets surfaced with the impending collapse of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), Indy Mac, Bear Streans and Lehman Brothers (OTC: LEHMQ), the Fed lopped another three-quarters of a point off the Fed funds rate, taking it down to 2.25% on March 18.

That was considered the absolute floor at the time, a level that would stick. But that wasn't the case.

Since the stock market is down so much I have been buying something in the fourth quarter almost every week. I have been patient and have been expanding my watch list. The difficulty for me is that I feel like almost everything is on sale -- but is everything a bargain?

Maybe not; maybe I'm delusional. Perhaps that is because I am tuned into another time and place when I would have been dancing in the streets if I were able to acquire Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) or General Electric (NYSE: GE) for pennies on the dollar. Maybe that is all these stocks are worth? That is what Wall Street currently thinks. That is what Main Street currently thinks. There is a lot more bad news than good.

Then why is Warren Buffett buying, and Carl Icahn and Ken Heebner? After all, I'm just following in their shadows.

The reason is that most investors are simply focused on all the bad news. That is what has most folks' attention and that is making the market -- bankruptcies, billions of dollars in losses, government out of control, Wall Street out of control and more. There is also serious fear things will get worse. If you lost money in the stock market (all of us), or lost your job or your house or any combination of the above, then things look bleak and for now they are. However, we should not be investing for now; we should be investing for the future.

Consider the following elements that support a recovery in the next year. I do not mean a boom, just a recovery -- just a more positive investing environment.

1) By spring it is estimated the government will have poured $2 trillion dollars into an economy of $13 trillion over a 12-month period. Not only is this a market stimulus, but it may prove to be highly inflationary, and if so equities are a better place to be then cash.