The mainstream media is overflowing with hyperventilating bears preaching about a depression. All fear-mongering aside, we see two very positive developments in the U.S. economy: retail and corporate spending.

1. Retail Spending

The International Council of Shopping Centers has announced that retail sales expanded at the highest pace since September 2006. Luxury retailers posted an eye-popping 8% rise in sales. Seems like consumption is our culture. Some people think the U.S. consumer has changed. Personally, I would never bet against the DNA of a tribe ... and ours is shopping. As my brother Derek said, "In the Great Depression we had bread lines. Now, there are Apple (AAPL) iPhone 4 lines." That is a mind-blowing distinction.

Shoppers spent more time – and money – in malls last month, with many retailers posting on Thursday strong results in what tends to be the final month of their fiscal year. The rich are doing a better job of prying open their wallets, as RetailMetrics, a research firm that covers the industry, reported that luxury retailers such as Saks (SKS) enjoyed larger gains in January than bargain stores. Signs of life in financial markets have made wealthier consumers more willing to spend ... and we all know that a recovery has to start someplace.

Retailers appear to have been rescued at the last minute, according to data from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Shoppers looking for deals the week before Christmas -- and making up for the day lost to stormy weather on the East Coast -- spent aggressively, sparing the retail sector a dismal 2008-like performance.

The healthy conclusion to the holiday season led to a positive change from November and made December one of only three months (including September and October) in which retail sales increased year-over-year.

This week, the world's top retailers will tell investors how the much-discussed holiday season went. Analysts expect a year-over-year gain of 1.3% for stores open at least a year, which of course uses a dismal 2008 as a benchmark.

The holiday shopping season is the last chance retailers get to pump up their financial statements before the close of their fiscal year, which usually comes at the end of January. For some retailers, up to 40% of their revenue comes in the weeks heading into Christmas.

The holidays have ended, and the real sales have begun. Those choosing to sacrifice sentimentality for savings found retailers only too willing to help, as prices were slashed in the wake of the Christmas rush. Recipients of gift cards stand to see their purchasing power extended, as well, now that redemption time has arrived, and retailers are looking to squeeze in any extra sales they can to pump up their top lines before the books close on the fiscal year, which, for many, comes at the end of January.

Toys "R" Us has offered a deal on Nintendo (NTDOY) Wii games, with the second coming at half price, and Target (TGT) is nearly halving the price of wine glasses and dropping the tag on an argyle women's sweater by nearly a third. Walmart (WMT), which kicked off its cuts at the end of September, is throwing a $50 gift card on top of any Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox 360 buy.

A retail survey released this morning showed that last week's chain-store sales increased 2.6% compared to the same week last year. However, the survey, from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs, also showed that consumer activity dropped 1.3% from the week earlier.

ICSC chief economist Michael Niemera stated, "The now annual post-Thanksgiving week lull in consumer holiday-gift buying once again showed up as consumers continued to be well behind on their holiday-gift buying completion pace."

Two months of momentum and Black Friday weren't enough to make November a winner for retailers. The holiday shopping season kickoff was up only 0.5% year-over-year, and the month as a whole saw retail sales fall 0.3% year-over-year. As if the drop weren't bad enough, it's a decline on top of last year's November retail freefall, which means we went from bad to worse.

Meanwhile, analysts had expected a strong increase. U.S. government data on retail sales isn't due to be reported until December 11, 2009, and it's expected to be a better indicator of the sector's performance. The data released Thursday doesn't include sales by Wal-Mart (WMT).

Retailers expect a strong turnout on Black Friday this year, but they are careful to explain that it doesn't guarantee a winning holiday shopping season.

Consumers are being lured by good deals and special promotions, and Black Friday specials have been leaked earlier than usual this year in the hopes of generating some buzz. The retail sector needs it. Last year's holiday season was the worst in decades, thanks to the financial crisis. This year, the survivors will benefit from fewer competitors chasing the same consumer dollars.

Consumers are finally spending more, with September posting the first gain in more than a year. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) found that retail sales inched 0.1% higher last month. It doesn't seem like much, but a gain when you anticipate a fall is good news magnified. But, it came at the expense of great deals and other tools to entice somewhat hesitant customers into stores.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) reported sales increases in September for stores open more than a year. J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M) and Target (NYSE: TGT) posted declines, but they were better than expected. Delayed school openings thanks to a late Labor Day helped push to September sales that might have occurred in August otherwise.

Of course, all eyes are on the coming holiday season. The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. consumer spending of $437.6 billion – up only slightly from $433.7 billion four years ago. So, we still have a lot of ground to make up before we can celebrate a recovery. As long as the situation is staying steady, though, we'll at least have a solid starting point.

December is a critical month for retailers - the holiday season is the busiest shopping time, and a large chunk of bottom-line profits is booked in the final month of the calendar year. In 2006, December sales accounted for about 15% of all sales for the retailing sector. But December 2007, as many were predicting, may be one of the worst Decembers this decade.

Tomorrow, same-store sales for this critical month will hit the Street and the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is expecting an overall gain of 1% among stores open at least a year. This is below the ICSC's earlier estimate of 1.5% and compares to a year-ago jump of 3.3%. If this estimate is on the nose, it will be the sector's worst December since 2002.

There are many reasons that the holiday-shopping season was a slow one: rising food and fuel costs, the credit market breakdown, continued housing woes. And because of all these reasons, many retailers were forced to offer sale prices and additional incentives to lure cautious customers into the stores. These discounts obviously pressured the bottom line.