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Engine of growth-wise, it's a whole new ballgame for the global economy

At times, during this protracted global recession, it seems as if the entire world depended on home equity loan-fueled U.S. consumption to maintain GDP growth.

De-coupling -- the notion that the emerging market economies of China, India, Brazil and Russia were independent of the developed world, from a GDP growth standpoint, and were self-sustaining -- has been quickly dispelled. "De-coupling" has about as much validity as another ruse that made the rounds in the last boom (as it does in all expansions): the fallacy of "this time it's different" – the notion that some economic phenomenon can continue indefinitely. During the last expansion there was a widely-held view that housing prices, despite numerous metrics that showed that housing prices had hit bubble levels, could rise at double-digit rates annually, for a decade or more.

Continue reading Engine of growth-wise, it's a whole new ballgame for the global economy

Feathers are flying. What is causing the US/China chicken wars?

Why is chicken causing a furor between the US and China? It seems that there is a long standing feud over chicken imports to the US. According to Etter and Power, in 2006 the USDA issued a rule that permitted China to export cooked poultry products to the US as long as the raw poultry meat originated in the US. A bruhaha erupted, and lawmakers inserted a provision in the fiscal 2008 spending bill that prohibited processed chicken from being imported into the US.

Now, in retaliation, China is expected to ban imports of US chicken, a move that would cost US chicken exporters $370 million dollars over the next six months.

Continue reading Feathers are flying. What is causing the US/China chicken wars?

China's continuing giga-GDP growth

Wangfujing street in Beijing.In the weeks ahead, BloggingStocks will take an in-depth look at China's economic expansion, its impact on the global and U.S. economies, and also review a few stocks likely to benefit from China's development.

China's announcement that its economy grew at annualized rate of 11.5% in Q3 has done nothing to quell economists' concerns that its economy is growing too fast for both the betterment of its mainland citizens and international markets/commerce.

China's government points to a "successful" slowing of the economy in Q3 to 11.5% from 11.9%. But the minor GDP drop was not what economists were looking for. Economists would have rather seen a Q3 GDP growth rate of 8% or 9% -- i.e., a 15%-25% drop in the rate of growth as evidence of a slower economy. Further, little in China's Q3 report indicated that the country is correcting macroflaws in the economy -- namely, too much heavy industry, high energy use, and a dependence on export sales, to go along with another serious flaw: domestic underconsumption.

Regarding the latter, China has taken some measures to help its middle class expand, and domestic consumption is rising. But domestic consumption still is not large enough: China said domestic consumption has accounted for about 37% of economic gains so far in 2007, down from 39% in 2006. In other words, China is still not at a point where consumer spending can support its economy, and also stimulate growth in other countries through the purchase of foreign goods and services.

Continue reading China's continuing giga-GDP growth

Stop blaming China - partners win, whiners lose

Stop whining about China. Stop looking for scapegoats. Maybe the problem isn't with them, but us.

It's time to get some perspective. I just received a flier from Target Corp (NYSE: TGT) advertising a Euro futon / contemporary sofa for $99, a Haier under-counter stainless steal refrigerator for $99 and a microwave for $30. These prices are so low I had to check three times to make sure I was reading them correctly. No gimmicks were found.

Consider this, it would be a waste of our resources to have Warren Buffett or Steve Jobs mowing lawns. That is not the highest and best use of capital should we choose to pay the millions it would cost to hire them. Conversely, it would be an extreme waste of their talent if they worked for your average gardeners' wages. Our highest and best use of resources is to pay foreigners to do the work.

Continue reading Stop blaming China - partners win, whiners lose

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S&P 500+3.041,108.69

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 12:39 PM

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