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Global Crossing's results support the return of IP optical networks

Global Crossing Ltd (NASDAQ: GLBC) rallied strongly yesterday, jumping almost 10% to $29 per share.

Global's results support our investment thesis of staying focused on the re-emergence of IP networks.

As a reminder, the price-performance curve of these networks is vastly superior to the old-time circuit-switched networks. This means as video and data intensive applications such as MySpace and YouTube continue to ramp, the demand for IP traffic will go through the roof -- as will the profits of the IP service providers like Global Crossing.

This Fly began positively blogging about Global's turnaround when the stock was trading at$14.50 last summer. Global's stock is now up 100%. I'd stay with this stock, there is more money to be made.

Fear has returned -- and it shows us where investor conviction is strong

Stocks that have held up best during this correction are most likely showing us where investor conviction is the strongest.

For example, one area that has held up surprising well is the Internet Protocol transport sector. Companies like Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT), Global Crossing Ltd (NADSAQ: GLBC), and Time Warner Telecom Inc (NASDAQ: TWTC) have changed little in price.

In previous corrections, these IP transport stocks would get crushed. However, that is not the case anymore.

This is a sign to stay with these stock and add to your position as the broader market continues to correct. If investors aren't selling these stocks now, it most likely indicates confidence is building in this space.

Additionally, Expedia inc (NASDAQ: EXPE), the online travel giant, has also held up very well, changing little in price during this correction. The stock has traded all over the place in previous corrections. This is a sign that investor confidence is improving here also.

All four stocks mentioned in this blog have good unit volume growth, operate low-cost businesses and appear to have pricing power returning to their industry -- a good combination to make some good money.

Drop in Level 3 a buying opportunity?

After Cisco Systems Inc's (NASDAQ: CSCO) outstanding results, we blogged that another way to play the huge growth in IP traffic was through pure IP service providers such as Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT), Global Crossing Limited (NASDAQ: GLBC) and Time Warner Telecom (NASDAQ: TWTC). That day, these stocks rallied big, especially Level 3.

Yesterday, Level 3 reported outstanding results but the stock gave back all the gains made on Wednesday. Why? The company said EBITDA would be down sequentially.

I would use yesterday's price weakness to get into this stock. Level 3 is going to spend a boat load of money in the first quarter to properly integrate Broadwing and the other companies it acquired during 2006. After that, operating results, along with the stock, should be off to the races again.

Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) has been one disaster of a merger because it never bit the bullet and spent the money to properly integrate the two companies. Sprint, after years of poor performance, is finally going to do the ugly work. But it might be too late.

The strong underlying trends in Level 3's business are too powerful to ignore. The core IP communications business is growing 25% to 30% per year, its growth rate and operating margins are the best in the industry and it continues to attract better and better customers--the who's who of the Internet era. In addition, Level 3 will substantially improve the debt-to-EBITDA ratio by 2008.

Yesterday's sell off was an overreaction. I would use it as a buying opportunity.

Making money investing in Internet Protocol

Cisco Systems Inc's (NASDAQ: CSCO) quarter-after-quarter of strong results is due to its focus and domination in developing the best Internet Protocol (IP) networking technology. Are there other ways to invest in IP and profit? Look at the remaining pure IP service providers:
  • Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT)
  • Time Warner Telecom Inc (NASDAQ: TWTC)
  • Global Crossing Limited (NASDAQ: GLBC)
  • Qwest Communications International Inc(NYSE: Q)
Level 3 still has the most bang for the buck. Also, do not forget about Qwest, which owns an old Baby Bell but also owns a sizable nationwide IP backbone.

Chambers mentioned a number of interesting statistics during Cisco's conference call. Cisco's optical business grew 40% and its sales to service providers jumped 20%. Chambers went as far as to say that there are signs in the enterprise space that look very much like that of the mid 1990s before technology stocks went through the roof.

If Chambers forecast proves to be correct, this most likely means a shortage of pure IP capacity could be on the horizon.

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA-74.9212,454.83
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S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 27, 2012: 02:41 AM

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