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Larry Jeddeloh of TIS Group, publisher of the Market Intelligence Report, was put on
Barron's Magazine (subscription required) interviewee pedestal this past weekend. Jeddeloh foresees a market drop of 15% to 20% post April.
Jeddeloh cites subprime mortgage woes and global central bankers still biased toward raising rates that could translate into a much quicker drop in GDP growth than investors are expecting. Actually, for such a substantial drop to occur, credit conditions will have to be much tighter than the market is currently discounting.
Is this a possibility? Remember the yield curve has been inverted for some time, meaning banks have had a tough time making money from the brainless act of taking deposits in and investing them in medium-term treasuries. Further, income derived from providing mortgages will also be down. The business that has continued to grow is fee income--whose growth has been masking weakness in other areas.
The Fed, prior to lowering rates during the past ten years, has liked to see liquidity conditions get tight before fueling up the monetary pump again. Maybe this will happen again.
Areas that Jeddeloh liked are similar to areas we have been blogging about -- cotton and gold. See
our blog from last week on corn and cotton as to why cotton might be an attractive place to look for profits.
Regarding gold, the strategist has a $3,800 price target, expecting gold to mirror what stocks did from 1982 to 2000, increasing 1,400%. As we have blogged about in the past,
Newmont Mining (NYSE:
NEM) is a good place to look.