According to an article published by Bloomberg Cheapest Stocks in 16 years draws investors, "Investors are preparing to snap up shares of telephone, health-care and computer companies after last week's $2.1 trillion global stock market rout left U.S. equities the cheapest in 16 years."

I am always pondering stock valuations in search of bargains and have been thinking that there are many bargains to be had. Having come to this conclusion though is not based on the relative market strength or weakness, or whether the over all market is cheap or not. I am not interested in bear markets or bull markets. The average investor should view all markets and promoters of said markets as full of bull. The best way to invest in stocks is the same way you invest in friends - one by one, respectfully, fairly and refraining from judging the proverbial book by it's cover. You should look deeper and think long term.

Some companies have reported terrific earnings Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and some have been lackluster Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Some have been dismal like housing stocks Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL). While one could make the argument that stock valuations are at a low point there is more to the story.

Since valuations -- think price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios -- are at a cumulative low, and the market prices stocks based on future earnings and growth of equity potential, then one has to assume the brokerage houses, investment banks, hedge funds, institutions and the like have priced in a continuation of the same low interest, high liquidity conditions that lead to this economic situation. I do not have such clarity in regards to this future.

Maybe the headline should not read "Stocks are the cheapest they have been in 16 years", maybe it should read "Large investors are more tenative than they have been in 16 years". After all look how fast they were jumping ship last Thursday and Friday. In any event, I will continue to write about specific opportunities and resist characterising the over all markets.

Who says the stock market is too cheap? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jul 2007 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The last trader makes the market that's who. Think about the fact that most shares of any stock are not available. They are not for sale. Naturally rapid escalation in a stock's value does bring more shares to the market, but in general most are not for sale on any given day. In particular, stocks in the Standard & Poors 500 are part of an index that many funds must hold as part of their agreements with their customers.

Some of my older stock holdings include Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG), Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). I did not buy them for short term gains and do not anticipate selling any time soon. In the case of JNJ, one of the most widely held stocks and most respected companies in the world over the last hundred years, there are a large number of people, pension funds and investment managers that feel the same way.

Sometimes it is not even day traders or 'market makers' that are the last trade. It might be a promise to trade as with options. Here is another interesting thing to think about. If on a given day 5% of a stock is traded down than 95% of the shareholders lose value and had no say. The next day they are traded back up and again 95% of the shareholders are just along for the ride. The stock quotes you read are set by the minority, not the majority of shareholders.

Continue reading Serious Money: Who makes the market?

Serious Money: Who makes the market? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Jul 2007 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

We use Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) all the time, almost everyone does. But there are many things we use just as much or more. So why does this stock have such a wacky valuation?

Why, when I ask for someone to explain these numbers to me do I just get rhetoric like "you just don't get it" screamed at me. That's a stupid response! Of course I don't get it - I know that. But I would like to learn why this stock is valued differently than all other stocks?

Here are some numbers I don't understand:

• Price/Earnings (TTM) 116.19
• Price/Book (MRQ) 53.16
• Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 61.38

These numbers would be ridiculous even if earnings were 400% higher. At Amazon's current P/B it is not worth 2 cents on the dollar - yes I don't get it at all. Is there anyone willing to explain it to me?

Let's look at two other high flyers I have written about often, for comparison:

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) reported a great quarter and once again shattered analysts best guess estimates across the board. The stock market is jubilant this morning on that and other favorable earnings reports recently as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, is up over 100 points, threatening 13,000.

Google was up yesterday in after market trading and is currently (11:30 a.m. EST) trading at $488, up 3.5% from yesterday's close.

In my post yesterday, Serious Money: You asked about Intuitive Surgical?, I blogged of my own venture into a dramatic growth stock and even went as far as to outline why Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) was the superior investment compared to Google.

While Google has taken the market by storm and grabbed all the attention, ISRG is currently trading up 10.3% to $133.66 on an equally astounding earnings report, beating estimates by 9 cents per share. Both companies are charging into the future with great promise, leading their respective sectors and leaving all estimates behind in the dust. GOOG and ISRG look unstoppable at the moment, but investors should be careful with all this euphoria.

If you are not familiar with ISRG, perhaps you should take a look.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Google rocks the market & Intuitive tops that! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Apr 2007 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Someone reading my bio recently asked if I still owned Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG); - yes I do! I am not going to consider selling until something changes that affects my original reason for buying it in the first place. ISRG is my best stock pick ever. I actually bought it's competitor Computer Motion (RBOT) a year before the two merged. My basis is $7.70. If you look at the 5 year chart below you will note that my timing was spot on.

Continue reading Serious Money: You asked about Intuitive Surgical?

Serious Money: You asked about Intuitive Surgical? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yes, Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) is still one of the most fascinating companies in the world, commanding a high price and superstar investor status.

Google remains in the news with multiple stories broadcast on the web each day, and everywhere else: bonding with Apple (AAPL) and Time Warner (TWX), challenging Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and eBay (EBAY), scaring newspapers and publishers, adding features to their line of products and services, getting tangled up in litigation here (Click Fraud) and abroad (Google relents and posts Belgian court ruling on its website), analysts speculation about GOOG's future share value and all this is just a partial accounting.

90 days ago I posted 10 Reasons I think Google is going down: and the following was reason number 10. This recap and update tracks current values holding myself accountable for my comments.

10. Does not pass the equivalence test.

Continue reading GOOG still FASCINATING: 90-day update on equivalency test

GOOG still FASCINATING: 90-day update on equivalency test originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 25 Sep 2006 14:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.