I know that last thing you probably wanted to hear this morning was that oil prices moved even higher, but that is exactly what is taking place, as oil rose as high as $125.98 and is currently trading at $125.60.

Leading the charge today is the weak dollar as investors continue to seek refuge from the falling U.S. currency in commodities -- most notably, oil. The dollar has fallen today against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. The euro was sitting at $1.5404 last night, but has moved higher today, up to a current price of $1.5466.

The market is also concerned about the upcoming peak driving season for Americans. With the season getting under way, oil prices will definitely continue to rise, and if gasoline stockpiles continue to fall, you can be sure that gasoline prices are also going to keep moving higher over the next couple of months. Will we see national averages of $4 or greater? I don't think so, but at the current rate prices are moving, nothing is out of the question right now.

American motorists, already stung by an 80% increase in gasoline prices in the past year, sense that $5 per gallon is ahead, and they may be (regrettably) right.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 94% of respondents expect to pay $4 per gallon this year, and 78% expect to pay as much as $5, CNNMoney reported Tuesday.

The national average currently is $3.62 per gallon as tracked by the Lundberg Survey, Bloomberg News reported. Many higher-cost areas of the United States -- including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Boston -- are already experiencing prices over $4 per gallon.

Further, traders and analysts say seasonal, structural, and geopolitical factors are likely to push gasoline considerably higher in the weeks ahead -- with gasoline's upward arc lasting months, if the price of oil continues to rise.

Primary culprit: Rising oil prices

The biggest factor in gasoline's rise is the price of oil, which Tuesday topped $122 per barrel in NYMEX trading for the first time in its history. Oil is up more than 100% since 2006. In November 2001, oil traded at about $17 per barrel. Moreover, because the crude component accounts for more than 60% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, refiners have passed that added cost onto consumers.

Oil continues its charge today, with prices rising above $122. At noon, oil is at $122.21, up $2.21.

The bulls have definitely had plenty of reason to continue to push prices higher this week. Concerns over supplies and the weak U.S. dollar continue to lead headlines, adding a boost to the current record high prices. Unfortunately for consumers at the gasoline pumps, higher oil will probably continue to prop up gasoline prices.

In an already uncertain market, any sort of rumors over supplies will always lead to higher prices, and that is definitely playing a part in the current market. Fresh concerns are flowing out of Iraq after Kurdish rebels threatened to start running suicide operations against American interests in the country. Iran is (as always) in the minds of traders as the country continues to defy the United Nations over its nuclear program.

Oil zoomed past $119 per barrel Friday at mid-day after a cargo ship hired by U.S. military fired warning shots at boats suspected to be Iranian, Reuters reported Friday.

According to a U.S. Navy Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet spokeswoman, the Westward Venture, a cargo ship chartered by the U.S. Department of Defense, fired "a few bursts" of machine gun and rifle fire to warn two, approaching, unidentified small boats believed to be Iranian vessels, Reuters reported Friday. The small boats left the area, a short time later, the spokeswoman said.

Oil jumps $3

Oil surged $3.04 to $119.10 per barrel on word of the incident. The other major energy commodities also rose on the news. Heating oil rose about 4 cents to $3.30 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added about 4 cents to $3.05 per gallon, and natural gas gained 13 cents to $10.92 per million BTUs.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz said the incident underscores how one unexpected event in today's oil-challenged world can send the oil markets into buy-mode in seconds.

Oil prices fell to $106 Friday morning on word that oil flows from a southern pipeline hit by saboteurs had resumed, Bloomberg News reported.

Oil fell $1.50 to $106.08 per barrel in early trading Friday. The other major energy commodities also retreated on the news. Heating oil fell about 4 cents to $3.10 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined about 2 cents to $2.70 per gallon, and natural gas rose fell 2 cents to $9.70 per million BTUs.

Iraqi oil flows through the country's southern pipeline system to the Basra export terminal returned to normal at about 10 p.m. local time Thursday, an oil official said, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.

Oil Analysis: Prior to the Iraq incident, oil had been corrected to the $100 range, on likely lower oil demand and gasoline consumption stemming from the U.S. economic slowdown, and from record-high gasoline prices. However, two incidents this week, the Iraq pipe attack and a below-consensus weekly U.S. oil inventory report, caused a sudden reversal and a $7 spike in oil prices. Assuming bearish fundamentals remain the same -- and there are no further disruptions to supply globally -- traders now expect oil to resume its downward track as the spring season progresses.

Oil prices briefly jumped above $107 Thursday morning on news that saboteurs had blown up a major Iraqi export pipeline, the Agence France-Presse reported.

Oil rose $1.26 to $107.16 per barrel in early trading Thursday, before moderating some, to about $106.50. The other major energy commodities also jumped on the news in early trading Wednesday. Heating oil rose about 5 cents to $3.09 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 1 cent to $2.72 per gallon, and natural gas rose about 3 cents to $9.43 per million BTUs.

One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday, Samir al-Maksusi, Southern Oil Company spokesman, told the AFP. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.

Oil spikes

The Iraq incident marks the second consecutive day a bullish data point has pushed oil prices substantially higher, and underscores the skittish price qualities of the world's most vital commodity, according to independent energy trader Jim Dietz. Dietz said that heading into the week many traders had expected oil to continue to trend lower on sluggish demand for oil and oil products in the U.S., due to its economic slowdown.

Oil closed Thursday up $2.95 to $102.59 per barrel -- another record-high print close -- after a combination of geopolitical, production, and trading factors sent investors piling into crude oil futures as an investment/inflation hedge, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Earlier in the day oil hit an intra-session high of $102.70 -- within 10 cents of the all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel set in April 1980.

The other major energy commodities also rose. Heating oil surged about 6 cents to $2.83 per gallon, unleaded gasoline climbed about 2 cent to $2.49, and natural gas rocketed 39 cents to $9.45 per million BTUs.

Oil prices are off to a strong start this week, as traders are pushing prices higher in reaction to multiple concerns stemming out of the Middle East.

The first factor that is weighing on traders mind's is the Turkish invasion to Iraq. Tension between Turkey and the Kurds in Northern Iraq is nothing new to the area (and violence between the two goes all the way back to 1984), but the current activity is the first confirmed operation by Turkey since the United States began its Iraqi campaign in 2003.

Over the weekend, Turkey announced that one of its helicopters had gone down in Northern Iraq, killing 8 Turkish soldiers. In reaction to that news, Turkey stepped up its force by firing in excess of 40 salvos of artillery into the territory.

Oil Friday closed up 65 cents to $98.85 -- shaking off earlier profit-taking -- after word that Turkey had launched a ground incursion across the border into northern Iraq.

It was the highest three-day print close for oil ever. Oil gained more than $3 this week and closed above $100 twice. (Oil hit an all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel in April 1980.)

Oil: bull, bear battle

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Friday the market remains volatile and conflicted.

"What we have now is a battle royale. Oil inventories have risen for five weeks and gasoline demand is slowing. Gasoline demand is up less than 1% year-over-year, and that suggests a major drop in oil's price is ahead. Bigtime," Dietz said. "But the bulls aren't giving up. They point to Venezuela's threats to cut-off oil to the U.S., the civil strife in Nigeria that never seems to go away, OPEC's possible March cut, and now Turkey crossing the Iraq border, as bullish signs, and they have a point. So it's a pretty conflicted market right now."

The comments on a recent blog post by Sarah Gilbert, about Starbucks retraining efforts took an interesting turn towards discussion about whether or not that company supports our troops. This seems to be a subject which elicits strong passion among many blog readers, which prompts me to ask this question of you: Does a company's position, openly declared or not, regarding support for our troops, affect your perception of that company and whether or not you'll intentionally do business with them?

This issue can be difficult to assess, because often times a company's position on the matter is cloaked, unavailable or skewed by misinformation. The comments on Sarah's blog post give clear evidence of that. Some folks seem convinced that Starbucks doesn't care about our troops, yet packages bearing its logo are reported to arrive at military addresses every day. What's more is the fact that often companies elect not to state a position regarding our restructuring efforts in Iraq. To some people, silence on the matter is interpreted as contempt rather than consent.

I must admit that my own opinions about individual companies regarding their stance on our military involvements are sometimes colored by unconfirmed email commentary and careless internet banter. That is why I generally refrain from discussing the issue. What about you? Do you base your opinions on random emails which purport to reveal a company's stance regarding our military, or do you research the topic before coming to your conclusions?

American President George Bush announced his new budget spending plan today, and the package came out to a total of $3.1 trillion.

Today's federal budget proposal marks the first time in America's history that a budget plan has been in excess of $3 trillion. Bush claims that his budget is "good" and "solid" and that the passing of this budget will help keep the troubled American economy growing.

All in all, this budget looks to lift government spending by 6% during the fiscal year 2009, and it will probably come to no one's surprise that defense gets a nice little boost from today's budget. Bush is looking to allocate 8.2% of his spending on security, and the budget is looking to stake a $70 billion "placeholder" for war costs during 2009. The Pentagon should be pleased with its figures, as Bush is looking to allocate $515.4 billion its way... the highest allocation since WWII (and represents a 7.5% jump).

When President George Bush prepared for his final State of the Union address, his speech writers definitely had their hands full, with recession fears, and growing impatience over the Iraqi war looming on American's minds. He put on a good face, and did his best to assure Americans that all was OK, but did the American people buy it?

Bush's second term as America's 43rd president has been a rocky road. The President has dealt with low approval ratings, resulting from growing disapproval over the war in Iraq, and most recently the mortgage crisis and slowing economy. Earlier this week, he tried to reassure the country that things were in good shape, and that the country had good things to look forward to in 2008.

The main thing on the minds of most Americans right now is a possible recession getting ready to hit the country. While the President admitted that "growth is slowing," he pointed out that the benefits from a recently agreed upon stimulus package would go a long way to fight off any looming recession.

The package cleared its first hurdle recently with the House of Representatives passing a $146 billion recovery package. Now it moves on to the Senate where its future is a bit more uncertain.

I was motivated to write this by a recent blog post by Jonathan Berr entitled, Iowa to Wall Street: Drop dead. In that post Jonathan made one assertion to which I take exception. Mr. Berr claims that the American voter is scared and that our fear shall rule the ballot box this coming November. With all due respect (and much is due) to Jonathan Berr, I must make this one assertion, it's not fear that we shall carry to the ballot box in November, it's anger. We as a public are very angry and we have every right to be mad as hell.

We're mad because we know that as major banks were writing off losses they brought upon themselves, they sold those debt portfolios to collection agencies and pools of lawyers who relentlessly chased those dollars until the cows came home. Yeah, it's a loss on the books but those debts are still real and collectible. Do they honestly think we don't know that?

We're angry because our government is silently allowing the sale of large stakes in major domestic financial institutions to foreign entities.

We're upset that our government is underwriting the foolishness of producing ethanol from foodstuffs for use in internal combustion engines when good sense tells us that ethanol should be made from waste and used at it's source for electrical generation.

We're mad as hell that we're potentially facing a government made up mainly of turncoat Democrats who sanctioned a war with their votes and now haughtily claim they were misled. They're liars or they're stupid... which is it?

It's hard to picture an oil sector projecting production in Iraq as a significant factor in global oil supply, but that, in fact, is what some analysts in the sector are doing.

While the policy debate on the political merits and national security impact of the Iraq war continues at full-throttle in the United States -- the issue is almost certain to be a factor in the 2008 U.S. president election, many political analysts agree -- Iraq's oil sector continues to make slow, but nevertheless steady progress.

With the decline in successful sabotage against Iraq's petroleum facilities, oil output has increased by 400,000 barrels daily to about 2.4 million barrels per day, inching closer to Iraq's production of 2.8 million barrels per day before the removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003, The Christian Science Monitor reported Monday.

My fellow Americans...hmm, that's overused....and I am not running for anything. HEY PEOPLE... too rude... To my fellow investors, read carefully: WE ARE NEVER LEAVING IRAQ! There, I said it, it's done.

Don't you wish some of our elected officials could tell it to us straight? We are not going to pull out of Iraq this year, next year, in 10 years or perhaps 100 years. Not unless we are chased out (although some locals are trying). It is true that we may reduce our forces over the next four or five years to a third of what we have there now, but we are not leaving. Since we are not leaving, I would like to see the business plan. Everyone has wanted to see the administration's strategic plan for some time, but a business plan will do.

The United States military never left Korea, Japan, Germany, Italy, and has advisors on every continent, just about every place we have ever gone. The only time we've left is when we were kicked out. The Iraqis will not be kicking us out. They need us to prevent an escalation of the civil war. They need our help rebuilding their infrastructure, (which we bombed), and we want to do that!