There will be five superheroes competing for the attention of weekend moviegoers come Friday. There's Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL)'s duo Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk, Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, General Electric Corporation (NYSE: GE)'s Hellboy (distributed by GE's Universal), and Time Warner, Inc (NYSE: TWX)'s Dark Knight. So, who's going to be the ultimate crime fighter?
I'll tell you which one prevails: Time Warner and its new Batman film, The Dark Knight, has the weekend all locked up. This is set in stone. The Hulk and Iron Man are pretty much done, Hellboy isn't a powerful enough brand name,and Hancock didn't deliver the big numbers I thought it was capable of during its debut weekend (since then, however, the movie has held up well, I have to admit). But you can bet that Dark Knight hits $100 million this weekend. Can you feel the buzz surrounding this blockbuster in the wings? I can. Several reviews I've read were full of cinematic worship for this new entry in the franchise, with special praise reserved for the late Heath Ledger and his portrayal of the fiendish nightmare known as The Joker. There's a decent marketing campaign behind the project, including promotion of the availability of IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screenings. If there ever seemed a movie fit for Imax, this is it. Yeah, Dark Knight can't lose, it can only win big.
Of course, what about Time Warner's stock? It could certainly use a superhero right now, as it has been hovering in recent times not above Gotham City (although that would probably be treacherous enough) but above 52-week-low City. I can't say that a big opening weekend definitely won't move the stock a little just due to the excitement factor, but I wouldn't buy the company ahead of the film (I also wouldn't gamble with IMAX either). Time Warner simply is too large to be affected significantly by one movie. If you consider Time Warner at all, it would be for fundamentals and valuation (I think the company is cheap here, although with this market, I'd rather get it cheaper). Enjoy the movie first, think about the stock later...
Disclosure: I own GE and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Marvel (NYSE: MVL) is all about making movie franchises these days. For instance, the success of Iron Man has led to plans for a sequel. Shareholders are, understandably, happy about this since a series of blockbuster films will rake in a lot of money for the company and have a positive effect on the shares.
But, Marvel's second movie out of the gate, The Incredible Hulk, may not get the sequel treatment, according to the Hollywood Reporter. The article implied that the financial performance of the film may not have been blockbuster enough to make a sequel inevitable. That doesn't mean that it won't eventually get one, but since there are, as of now, no plans for another Hulk, the speculation is out there. As aforementioned, we already know that there will be another Iron Man.
As a Marvel shareholder, I am disappointed by the box-office results for this latest iteration of the Hulk (even the first weekend seemed weak). Back in 2003, when that year's movie version of the character was released, there was widespread disdain for the project (I myself couldn't stand the flick). Then came this summer's so-called reboot of the franchise. Unfortunately, as of now, 2008 Hulk hasn't done much better than 2003 Hulk.
It's the Fourth of July weekend, and movie studios want to capture as much money for their films as possible, even if they've already been in the theaters for several weeks. No matter what, though, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, starring the always excellent Will Smith, is set to be the financial superhero of the weekend. Already, as of this writing, the film has taken in about $24 million through Wednesday, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie had some showings on Tuesday before its official debut in the middle of the week. It was number one on Wednesday, followed by Disney (NYSE: DIS)'s Wall-E. The robot flick so far has a total tally of around $86 million.
Poor Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and its The Incredible Hulk project. Will anybody be interested in seeing the big green guy now that Hancock is in the marketplace? Indeed, Hulk took in less than a million bucks on Wednesday, and it ranked number seven for that day. Looks like the Hulk fever is winding down at the multiplex, and it looks like Marvel's stock has had its run for the time being. The stock closed on Thursday at $31.20, well away from the 52-week high of $37.41. I still hold Marvel shares, and although there are no big catalysts on the immediate horizon, I have a long-term outlook on the company. Still, the trader in me wishes that I had lightened up on the position back at the $37 level to book some gains.
Hancock should do well north of $100 million once the Fourth of July holiday period has passed. The marketing, in my opinion, is very compelling, and from what I know about the story, it's a smart idea that provides a nice balance to the frivolous plots of Iron Man and Hulk (I'm using the term "frivolous" here with affection). Sony's scored a hit, maybe even a new franchise (I haven't seen the film, so I can't say if a sequel is feasible or not within the confines of the concept), but it won't do much to move the company's stock. Those looking to play the Hollywood game might want to wait for Marvel to pull back further from current levels.
Disclosure: I own Disney and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
I love summer, not only for the weather, but also for all the movies making their way to the multiplexes. According to this article at Marketwatch, for the first six weeks of the U.S. summer box-office season, the total gross for theatrical movies hit $1.46 billion, a statistic that represents about a 5% increase year-over-year in the comparable period. You can thank hits such as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for driving the nice results.
Now, I don't mean to rain on this parade, but I'm afraid I find myself in a similar frame of mind in terms of a piece I wrote back in March about the 2007 movie-business statistics. You see, I always like to look at number of tickets sold as a barometer for the true health of Hollywood. The number of tickets sold increased 1.6% to 206.2 million. The average price of a movie ticket rose 2.9% to $7.08. Now, while I am glad to see an increase this time around in terms of number of tickets sold, I don't find a 1.6% increase terribly exciting. It tells me that the theater industry still needs to convince people that it's fun to get out of the house, away from the giant televisions and the snazzy home-theater systems, and chomp on overpriced popcorn in a dark auditorium. Going to movie theaters is something that, in my opinion, can't truly be replicated in the home. A lot of people don't share that opinion, however.
The challenge for Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal is to make people feel that waiting for the DVD shouldn't be the norm. The shared experience of a movie screening is a unique part of culture, and studios need to communicate this fact through their marketing campaigns. I do think there is more work ahead for Hollywood. Focus on the number of tickets sold, that's the big metric.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
Yesterday, I wrote about my nervousness over Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. Today, I'd like to talk about how I wouldn't be so nervous if the Iron Man sequel ended up being directed by someone other than Jon Favreau. There are two excellent articles on The Motley Fool discussing this issue, one by Nathan Alderman and one by Marvel expert Tim Beyers. At the time those articles were published earlier in the week, it had seemed that Marvel was reticent about ponying up a higher compensation package for Mr. Favreau on the heels of the awesome success of the first movie starring Robert Downey, Jr. David Maisel, chairman of Marvel Studios, apparently wants to be very conservative about the company's above-the-line costs. Alderman thinks Marvel should give Favreau the requested raise, while Beyers understands the Hollywood dynamics going on and can see why both sides are doing what they are doing.
By the time my own piece is published, it's possible Favreau may be confirmed as the director of the second Iron Man (as I write this, there are rumors that a deal has been offered). Regardless of what happens, I'd like to offer my opinion on whether or not Favreau is an absolutely necessary component for an Iron Man sequel.
He isn't. And if shareholders think he is, then they had better rethink their investment in Marvel. What shareholders must ask themselves is this: Is it the director that is responsible for the ultimate success of a Marvel film, or is it Marvel management and the intangible value of the Marvel intellectual-property portfolio? Which element adds more equity? As far as I'm concerned as a shareholder, I'm investing in Marvel. I'm not investing in Jon Favreau. Any investor who believes that any one director is indispensable is going to be in for a stomach-churning ride, because when the day comes that a Jon Favreau or a Sam Raimi (he directed the Spider-Man flicks) decides that Marvel is no longer paying them what they're worth and jumps ship, the stock could easily see an overreaction sell-off.
I have a confession to make: I'm getting nervous as the weekend approaches. A certain movie has me rather frightened. Is it that creepy picture about mass suicides from M. Night Shyamalan? Nope. It's Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I'm worried about its prospects. It opens on Friday the 13th. Yeah, that's a lucky omen.
Hulk, which is being distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal (I own GE as well, but this won't move GE at all), represents a fresh start for the green, angry beast. If you'll recall, there was a Hulk movie back in summer 2003. It was horrible. In fact, I remember getting up and walking around the theater during a portion of the film so that I could do a bit of self-editing on it. This time around could be different. I just read a review from The Hollywood Reporter that was featured in this Reuters link, and I have to say, I do feel a little calmer. According to the review, this new take on the Hulk character is an entertaining cinematic diversion wholly suitable for the dog days of summer. It apparently is a superior product.
The weekend domestic box-office results weren't too shocking. I pretty much knew that DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda would kick its way to the top (I wonder how many writers will be using that phrase when covering the movie this week). But when I saw that Boxofficemojo estimated a $60 million gross for the cartoon, I actually was disappointed. These days, a $60 million haul in the summertime doesn't seem impressive. I thought Panda might have been worth a little more. But, after checking some of the historical openings for other DreamWorks pictures, I realized that Panda did all right. It actually was one of the bigger debuts for the studio.
Even though the cartoon seemed a lock for first place, I thought Sony's (NYSE: SNE) You Don't Mess with the Zohan project would be a close second. At a $40 million estimated gross, it wasn't. I don't know if you can mess with Zohan or not, but you apparently can mess with Adam Sandler and best his star power. Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is still going strong in third place. It has crossed the $250 million level, and it is headed for $300 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City, however, has lost a great deal of thunder, dropping from first to fourth place in its second weekend at the multiplexes. It is just shy of the $100 million mark. Is Sex nothing more than an opening-weekend phenomenon? It seems that way, but we'll have to see how steep the drops are in subsequent weekends.
The Strangers, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, dropped from third to fifth place in its second weekend, a rather predictable event for a horror movie. At a $37 million total gross so far, The Strangers won't go down as a huge triumph, but you've got to love the profit potential for this low-budget flick that succeeded in counterprogramming its way to summertime glory. Universal obviously thought the film's concept possessed a chance to score a $100 million total haul since it placed the movie against the big guns of this busy period, but that's okay, the try was worth it in this case.
The box-office estimates from Boxofficemojo for this past weekend surprised the heck out of me. Apparently, I'm out of touch with how popular this HBO show actually was because Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City captured first place at domestic multiplexes, hauling in over $55 million as of now (the numbers will change when they are finalized later on). Honestly, I thought I was going to be writing about the failure of Carrie and the gang. Kudos to Time Warner for opening this picture to great success.
Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull continues to bring in the nostalgia crowd as well as generate new fans for the franchise. It came in second place with about $46 million for the weekend. Still, I'm amazed that "Sex and the City" topped it.
I'm sure there are a few out there who are sick of my complaining over the failure of Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Prince Caspian film. But, I just had to write about recent comments made by CEO Bob Iger on the subject at a conference.
Okay, in Iger's mind, the reason Caspian failed is because it is a pretty competitive multiplex out there. He feels there are "too many movies being released." He also thinks the marketplace is "very delicate, very fragile." The Mouse CEO also highlighted the fact that Disney has cut back on movie production in recent years and is therefore hopefully making better decisions about the cinematic concepts it backs.
These comments sound like excuses, Bob. Sure, it's competitive out there. Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull are certainly overshadowing the brand equity of Caspian. But, is that the real reason the movie performed as poorly as it did? An interesting little note in the article is that Disney originally was going to use the same releasing strategy for Caspian as it did for the first Narnia epic. The studio intended on opening the sequel during the most recent Christmas season. But, here's why it didn't: producing partner Walden Media was opening its own movie at that time, one that was being distributed by Sony (NYSE: SNE).
According to The Hollywood Reporter, comic-book publisher Marvel (NYSE: MVL) has come up with another character set to exploit from its vast library. I've never heard of this title, but apparently a comic book called Runaways,whichhas been around since 2002 and has developed a following. It has been tapped by management to be source material for a movie. It has something to do with teenagers who have parents that are evil villains. This sends them for a loop, causing them to run away and to attempt to process this shock to their systems. I don't really know a lot about this universe.
And that's what fascinates me about it from the perspective of being a shareholder. It both frightens and excites me at the same time. One of the biggest issues surrounding Marvel has been the oft-mentioned value of the company's 5,000 characters. Some have pointed out that, once you get through Hulk, X-Men, Spider-Man ,Iron Man and a few of the other major hitters, Marvel really doesn't have any other big properties to lean on in terms of generating viable movie franchises. For instance, is Ant-Man going to be a huge success at the movies? For that matter, what the heck is an Ant-Man anyway? Wasn't he made fun of in an old Saturday Night Live sketch from the 1970's? I sometimes do have some reticence when thinking about characters such as Thor, Captain America, and, yes, Ant-Man. Will they be accepted by the movie-going youth as readily as Iron Man recently was at the multiplex?
This is why I think it's a neat idea to start testing the perception of Wall Street investors by announcing the film adaptation of a lesser-known quantity. I mean, I haven't heard of this Runaways thing, at least. But maybe something a little more modern compared to the Captain America character will resonate perfectly fine with the youthful target audience of today. Perhaps Marvel will find out the true value of its brand equity when it slaps its name on something that hasn't been promoted over several decades. It's difficult to say at this stage, and I'll concede that it might be a bit early to begin evaluating this concept when investors are more worried at the moment over the potential success or failure of the new Hulk picture that is set to open very shortly.
Still, if Marvel wants to compete with big guns such as Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), then it needs to broaden its horizons and move beyond Wolverine.
The box-office results are in, and I don't think there's any surprise concerning which film took the top honors this Memorial Day. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), took in $126 million over the four-day weekend at domestic theaters, according to Boxofficemojo. Taking into account Thursday showings, Skull has so far grossed about $151 million. These aren't record numbers as far as I know, but they certainly were high enough to displace Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Prince Caspian flick from the number-one position. The movie captured about $28.6 million at the multiplexes, good for second place; up to now, the Narnia sequel has a total tally of around $96 million.
Which is completely unacceptable to Disney shareholders (I'm one of the disappointed, and I wrote about my disappointment last week). Consider that the Memorial Day weekend is done, and that this is the second weekend for the project. To not crack $100 million domestically for a movie brand that was supposed to be strong considering the business that the first Narnia did back in winter 2005 should be troubling to Bob Iger.
At least Iron Man is around to cheer me up. The Marvel (NYSE: MVL) masterpiece is still in the top five at number three and has now enjoyed a $257 million take. I own shares in Marvel, so I'm glad the picture is offering some balance to Disney's relative flop. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) What Happens in Vegas and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Speed Racer took up fourth and fifth place, respectively. I suppose I shouldn't complain; Time Warner shareholders must put up with the fact that Speed Racer hasn't even cracked $40 million yet. Maybe that's the true bomb of the summer.
Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Chronicles of Narnia flick, Prince Caspian, opened on top of the weekend box office to an estimated $56.6 million take at domestic theaters according to Boxofficemojo.com. The media is buzzing with how awful this number is. Well, I'm not sure any of the media outlets I checked actually used the word awful, but I'm using it.
Simply put, the first Chronicles of Narnia movie grossed more than $65 million in its debut weekend, a significantly higher figure than what Caspian captured. Think about this: the first Narnia entrywas released in December 2005. Considering that the first film did pretty well, one would have figured that a sequel released a couple years later would have benefited from the high-traffic pre-summer period and that the first weekend would have achieved at least a $70 million+ opening. Never happened. Instead, even though Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man fell to number two, its estimated weekend haul of $31 million seems the bigger achievement by comparison.
So, who's to blame here, if anyone? Should Disney CEO Bob Iger be apologizing to shareholders? Maybe a small apology might be in order. I mean, did any of you out there feel the energy of the marketing campaign behind Caspian? I didn't. Once the early Iron Man buzz left the building, Disney should have rushed in to capitalize on the minds of moviegoers who were now waiting for the next big blockbuster coming down the pike; let's face it, during the summer box-office period, that's what we're programmed to do. Even now, I'm looking forward to the business waiting to be done by Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Disney doesn't have much of a chance to turn Caspian into a super blockbuster if Jones is the hit I think it's going to be. The competition will simply be too much.
The Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) release of the box office hit Iron Man, still No. 1 in world wide distribution, has got Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) rethinking its potential opportunities to leverage its stable of characters into larger than life features.
Under the terms of its new deal with Sunbow Productions, Hasbro has regained ownership of 1,000 hours of cartoons featuring G.I. Joe, Transformers, My Little Pony and Littlest Pet Shop.With the tremendous success of the live action Transformers movie, and a second Transformers as well as a G.I. Joe live action film in production, Hasbro clearly wants full control over its intellectual properties in order to maximize their exploitation.
Hasbo closed yesterday pennies off it's 52-week high of $37.35 and is trading around $36 midday today. Meanwhile Marvel also closed yesterday just off it's 52-week high of $35 closing at $34.27. It is down now in midday trading around $34.50. However, it is up since I posted Chasing Value: Marvel's Iron Man will be HUGE!
UPDATE: HAS closed at $36.26 down -$0.93, and MVL closed at $33.73 down -$0.54.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not hold any position or own shares of HAS or MVL.
I honestly thought Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Speed Racer would take the top spot over the Mother's Day weekend at the domestic box-office marketplace. Thankfully, I was wrong, since I own shares in Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL).
Instead, Marvel's blockbuster Iron Man, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), grabbed the honors. According to estimates at Boxofficemojo.com, Iron Man grossed more than $50 million while Speed Racer drove away with about $20 million, good for second place. Yes, these are estimates, but I'll tell you what, my friends any changes to them later on won't alter the tale of Marvel beating the bigger studio. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) new film, What Happens in Vegas, took in a similar amount to Racer and is currently pegged in third place. While first place is a lock, it's possible that second and third positions will be changed. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Made of Honor and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal comedy Baby Mama were fourth and fifth, respectively.
This was Iron Man's second weekend, and I couldn't be more pleased by its performance. Hopefully, the picture is on its way to grossing at least $250 million domestically; subsequent weekends will get tougher for Marvel as more summer flicks open and gobble up screens and mindshare. For now, though, the company is a superhero. I just hope that the new Hulk, which will be opening soon,is a lot better than the one put out a few years back. For coverage on Marvel's latest earnings report, check out Sheldon Liber's recent piece.
Disclosure: I own shares in General Electric and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Meanwhile, if you are a Marvel comics fan, as I was growing up, and can't wait for the sequel, let's hope that the June 13 premiere of the The Incredible Hulk tides you over until 2010. And then, starting with Iron Man 2, you can look forward to the gates opening wide for the pantheon of Marvel Super Heroes.