While bank stocks aren't exactly hot, they triggered yesterday's rally because when J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) reported, there were no unexpected surprises, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". The ups and downs in the sector are expected to continue.
According to people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) may be moving closer to outsourcing its search advertising to Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) after an initial test yielded what they considered to be positive results.
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The New York Times reported that AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) is planning today to make an announcement that they will gift $100M to improve the skills of the nation's work force and fight the problem of high school dropouts.
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Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) is best known for its blockbuster drug Revlimid which is used treat multiple myeloma, a cancer which attacks blood and bones. For patients, it can prolong their lives about 2.9 years, or longer, according to Investor's Business Daily's "The New America".
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) to post smaller profits in the first quarter. Both banks are scheduled to report results on Wednesday.
JP Morgan is expected to earn 65 cents per share, which is down 51% from the same period in 2007 when it earned $1.34. The company has tended to beat quarterly estimates recently. However, it fell short of the consensus fourth-quarter 2007 estimate by six cents, or 6.8%.
New York-based JP Morgan is the third largest financial services firm in the U.S, behind Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and recently agreed to buy Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). In the past year, JP Morgan's revenues were $116.3 billion and its net income totaled $15.3 billion. Its EPS growth forecast for the year is -23.4%, much worse than the banking industry average and the S&P 500. Yet the consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy JPM and has been for most of the past three months.
The stock has fallen 15.5% in the past year and trades at a P/E of 9.47. Shares closed Monday at $41.50.
The quarter has hardly begun and, with analysts and investors watching nervously, the earnings crunch is about to begin anew. The following 11 big banks are among companies reporting results the week of April 14 to April 18.
These three are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to be the the top performers in the first quarter, based on earnings growth from the same period of last year:
In an effort to increase sales in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported that Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) is in talks with a government-owned vehicle in Dubai called Tecom about establishing a joint venture.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM), which obtained a $7B capital infusion from TPG and other investors, had reportedly been working on the TPG deal while negotiating with JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), which made a preliminary takeover bid of about $7B, people familiar with the deal said.
Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is close to reaching a deal to sell $12B in leveraged loans at a discount to a group of leading private equity firms, the Financial Times reported. Although details of the deal were still being worked out, inside sources said Apollo Management, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG would buy the loan portfolio at a discount that could come in at about 90 cents on the dollar.
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The UK Times reported that The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is today expected to announce that its 787 Dreamliner has been delayed by 18 months, a setback which will affect all airlines that have ordered the 787, including British Airways Plc (OTC: BAIRY) and Virgin Atlantic.
Troubled savings and loan giant Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM) will receive a $5B investment from private equity firm TPG and other investors, the Wall Street Journal reported. For now, this eliminates the possibility that it will be acquired by another financial institution such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM).
People close to the situation said that Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE: NWA) have revived merger talks. It is speculated, the Financial Times reported, that weak demand and high fuel costs are urging the airliners back to the table to work out a merger arrangement.
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Evergreen Solar Inc (NASDAQ: ESLR) is expected to announce today that it will double the size of its manufacturing facility in Massachusetts and add about 350 new jobs as part of its ongoing expansion, according to the Boston Globe.
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Bloomberg reported that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) has been the only major investment bank that has refused to reduce its leverage. In fact, Goldman's adjusted leverage ratio of assets rose to 18.6 at the end of February, from 17.5 at the end of November.
It's been a vicious down market in financials. Hey, I know of what I speak -- I own CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE), Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) and MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) in my portfolio. I've previously discussed how my investments have been left wounded and bloody at the claws of the angry bears that have been running rabid-crazy on Wall Street as of late.
But -- is it me, or do things feel a little better? Has the price action on the major market indexes put you in a better mood? Of course, I'm writing this before the market opens, so sentiment can change on a moment's notice, but still, it's worth noting that investors must study those beaten-down stocks that have a great brand history behind them and that one assumes will still be around years from now. Citigroup (NYSE: C) is a stock I've been thinking about the last couple days, especially after JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) found itself raising its bid for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). What I find somewhat appealing about Citi's stock is its 52-week range -- the low point was a share price of $17.99, while the high point was north of $55 per stub. No, I don't think Citi will rocket back to the high end of that range anytime soon, but I like that it has bounced off the low. As of yesterday's close, Citi was valued at $23.42.
Naturally, I'm trying to figure out if that $17.99 is the final low. I think it just might be, but I want to wait to see if Citi can go higher from here before deciding whether or not to enter. It would be hard to believe that Citi isn't going to be higher a few months from now than where it is trading at currently, especially considering its post-dividend-cut-yield. But I think the market is still capable of volatile swings even though, as I've stated, my mood has improved. Bottom line: Citi isn't far enough away from its low for me to enter right now. I guess those financials that I already own have got me thinking twice about this Dow stock.
Disclosure: I own shares in CapitalSource, Newcastle Investment, MFA common stock, and MFA preferred stock; positions can change at any time.
For me, I just find it unfathomable that management would either bet the farm on some very high risk investments, or equally bad, bet the farm on investments they did not fully comprehend. This is such an extreme case of mismanagement that investors the world over can not believe it was possible. As a matter of fact it seems so impossible that it is probably what kept many of us faithfully invested. Many of us take investment risks, some more than others, but to bet the whole farm? To bet your future existence? This is financial insanity.
Is this just a case of greed causing blindness? If so why was it so contagious among some firms and not others?
It seems to me that the reported $2 per share purchase price that JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is paying for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) would not have been enough to buy the brand name last year, never mind the whole company. What we are witnessing is the strong (until JPM reports some surprise) taking advantage of the weak. It also exemplifies how bad the market is, that no other buyer has stepped in at these fire sale prices.
Were you surprised this morning? The consensus among everyone I spoke with yesterday and this morning was be prepared for a blood bath. After news on Sunday that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) was being bought out by JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) for a song ($2 per share) and the Federal Reserve Board was cutting the discount rate over the weekend, many were anticipating a 500 to 600 point drop in line with the sell off of about 4.5% in the Hong Kong and Japanese markets.
As of this moment, the DJIA is only down a meager 0.51% or about 61 points. Now that's shocking in a good way. Even at the open it was only down about 1%. Perhaps investors are so numb from yesterday they are to stupified or petrified to act.
The dollar fell to a yet another record-low against the euro Friday and plunged against the world's other major currencies, as investors shunned U.S. investments ahead of an almost-certain U.S. recession, with likely further interest rate reductions from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Friday's trigger event for selling was The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) stunning announcement that -- less than 10 days after senior management officials called liquidity-crunch rumors 'absolutely ridiculous' -- it had accepted a 28-day, emergency, secured loan from the U.S. Federal Reserve via JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).
The Fed said in a statement that it will ``continue to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system,'' repeating reassurances Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has made often since credit problems first surfaced in August 2007. The Fed did not state how large their loan is to Bear Stearns.
The ever-incisive FT columnist Martin Wolf offers a stark and sober analysis of the United States' current financial and economic predicament, but it's an analysis well-worth reviewing, if one has the time.
A synopsis is provided here, but first, full warning: read the analysis when you're feeling well and in a good mood, not during other times.
Encouraged by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the banks will offer a 30-day freeze on foreclosures while loan modifications are considered for borrowers who are at least three months late on payments. The program will include borrowers with prime mortgages, as well as those with poorer credit histories.
Second wave of defaults
The program is being initiated as the United States prepares for the second wave of mortgage defaults as variable mortgages rates reset in 2008. The U.S. Federal Reserve estimates that about two million mortgages will reset to higher rates, with foreclosures expected to soar to one million, absent an intervention. In a typical year, the U.S. has about 500,000-550,000 foreclosures.
In what could be a movie plot, the story starts with a meeting of Wall Street traders eating Chinese food on a cold February night in 2005. They met to figure out how they can turn the massive U.S. mortgage securities market into a cash cow for Wall Street, just like the $12 trillion corporate credit market. They had no idea at that time how the plot would develop into today's subprime meltdown that could actually set us on a bullet train heading toward the ultimate Wall Street disaster flick - the next Great Depression.
This could make for great movie entertainment if the story weren't true. Bloombergfirst exposed the depths of this story in December 2007, but so far the rest of the U.S. financial press has pretty much ignored it. I wonder why. The only other newspaper that picked this up was the New Zealand Herald, but I did see discussions of the story on various other hedge fund blogs.
Bloomberg's primary source for the story was Greg Lippmann, one of the key players in the story, who was then a 36-year-old trader at Deutsche Bank. He was part of what Bloomberg calls the "Group of 5" that included Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Trader Rajiv Kamilla (34-years-old) and Todd Kushman (32-years-old) of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). Representatives unnamed in the story came from Citigroup (NYSE: C) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). Through a series of meetings that grew larger and larger, including ultimately almost all Wall Street banks, subprime mortgage securities were born. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which sets trading terms for dealers on these complicated financial vehicles, finally got involved to help draft what ultimately became the subprime mortgage securities contract. The inability to appropriately price these securities based on their high risk has already resulted in over $100 billion in write-downs by Wall Street banks and brokerage houses, as subprime foreclosures continue to mount.
US Bancorp reported that fourth-quarter profit fell 21%, partly due to one-time charges. The company had warned about the effects of the real estate slowdown, but it appeared to sidestep the worst of the problems plaguing other lenders. The company's CEO made it a point to explain that the nation's seventh-largest bank is "well capitalized." U.S. Bancorp's net income fell to $942 million, or 53 cents per share, from $1.19 billion, or 66 cents per share, year over year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected profit of 59 cents per share.
State Street reported Tuesday that fourth-quarter earnings fell 28% after the company took a charge to cover fallout from its subprime investments. Excluding the charge, earnings rose to $540 million, or $1.38 per share, from 86 cents per share last year. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, whose estimates excluded one-time items, had expected earnings of $1.35 per share. Revenue rose 53% to $2.48 billion from $1.62 billion in the same period last year. Analysts had expected revenue of $2.39 billion.
Australia's Centro Properties Group bet big on U.S. shopping malls, financing more than $15 billion during a spending spree in 2007. Thanks to the credit crisis caused by the U.S. subprime meltdown, Centro can't refinance debt due Feb. 15 and has put itself up for sale [subscription required]. The stock lost 89% of its value in 2007, giving it the title of Australia's worst performer in the S&P/ASX 200 index.
Centro owns 810 shopping malls in Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. Potential buyers may find that a sale of the company's assets may be more valuable than buying the company itself, and Centro already indicates it may sell properties as part of its plan to restructure and pay back debt. Analysts expect Centro will have to sell assets at less than book value, especially recent U.S. purchases that have been hit hard by the real estate crisis in the U.S.
Centro could become the second Australian company lost because of the U.S. subprime crisis. RAMS Home Loans Group sold most of its holdings to Westpac Bank Group when it couldn't refinance its loans. Lenders holding Centro debt include the Royal Bank of Scotland, J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), BNP Paribas, Australian and New Zealand Banking Group, National Australia Bank, St. George Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Just looking at this list of lenders, you can see how global the subprime mortgage and credit crisis has become.
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It's been a vicious down market in financials. Hey, I know of what I speak -- I own 
For me, I just find it unfathomable that management would either bet the farm on some very high risk investments, or equally bad, bet the farm on investments they did not fully comprehend. This is such an extreme case of mismanagement that investors the world over can not believe it was possible. As a matter of fact it seems so impossible that it is probably what kept many of us faithfully invested. Many of us take investment risks, some more than others, but to bet the whole farm? To bet your future existence? This is financial insanity.
Were you surprised this morning? The consensus among everyone I spoke with yesterday and this morning was be prepared for a blood bath. After news on Sunday that 
The ever-incisive FT columnist
Bank of America, Citigroup and other major U.S. banks and lenders announced Tuesday a revised 
In what could be a movie plot, the story starts with a meeting of Wall Street traders eating Chinese food on a cold February night in 2005. They met to figure out how they can turn the massive U.S. mortgage securities market into a cash cow for Wall Street, just like the $12 trillion corporate credit market. They had no idea at that time how the plot would develop into today's subprime meltdown that could actually set us on a bullet train heading toward the ultimate Wall Street disaster flick - the next Great Depression.
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