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CEO turnover down, not out

It's still a tough time to be a CEO. In October, 89 top dogs moved on (by choice or not). Though this is 15% lower than the 105 in September and 29% off the whopping 125 CEOs who turned over a year earlier, it's still a sign that "stability" doesn't equal "recovery."

The latest study that Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed to BloggingStocks reports that October was the eighth month this year in which CEO turnover was down year-over-year. Through the end of last month, 1,028 CEO positions changed hands -- down 18% from the 1,257 by the same point in 2008. In fact, the tally for the first 10 months of 2009 is the lowest since 2004, when the big office found only 561 new inhabitants.

The financial industry remains the toughest place for CEOs, with 19 leaving the job last month. Even though the situation has gotten easier, this industry still has the highest turnover. For the year, approximately 10% of all CEO departures (106) have been in the financial sector. "The financial industry is still incredibly volatile, as both October and September saw major announcements from leading companies including JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and last month's bankruptcy of CIT Group, which led to the exit of CEO Jeffrey Peek," John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, says.

Continue reading CEO turnover down, not out

JPMorgan Chase crushes third-quarter earnings forecast

Tuesday morning greeted us with earnings from banking behemoth JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). The company said it earned $3.59 billion and that it nearly doubled the amount of money it saved for loan losses in the third quarter.

Breaking the results down into per-share earnings, JPM trounced the consensus estimate. The bank earned 82 cents per share, nearly double the expected 49 cents per share. Quarterly revenue increased to $26.62 billion from last year's same-quarter revenue of $14.74 billion.

Continue reading JPMorgan Chase crushes third-quarter earnings forecast

Consumer bankruptcies set to surge

Consumer bankruptcies have already spiked more than 30% this year, and it looks like the trend shows no signs of flagging. The American Bankruptcy Institute predicts that the tally could hit 1.4 million by the end of the year. So, although there are some experts signaling that the economy is on the upswing, the downstream effects of bankruptcy on consumer spending and corporate balance sheets are going to make it difficult for the market to turn the corner.

In July, more than 126,000 people filed for bankruptcy protection, and the filing rate was up 36.5% for the first six months of 2009 relative to the same period in 2008. The problem is affecting every rung of the social ladder.

Continue reading Consumer bankruptcies set to surge

JP Morgan easily tops Q2 earnings expectations

Investment bank JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) announced that second-quarter earnings checked in at 28 cents per share -- or $2.72 billion. A year ago, the financial giant reported earnings of $2 billion, or 53 cents per share. This year's quarterly earnings included a charge of 27 cents per share after JPM repaid the $25 billion invested by the government in the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). There was also a 10-cent-per-share penalty thanks to a special assessment from the FDIC. Expectations called for earnings of four cents per share.

JPM also reported record first-half revenue, stemming from "solid" performances in its commercial banking, asset management, treasury and security services, and its retail banking. That said, JPM expects credit costs to remain elevated in the "foreseeable future." No doubt that these results will lend some bullish momentum to Wall Street today, as JPM's earnings reinforce the quarterly results from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS).

Continue reading JP Morgan easily tops Q2 earnings expectations

JPMorgan Chase slides after waiving right to buy its stock warrants

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and the U.S. government can't seem to agree what the bank's stock warrants are worth. As a result, JPM has asked the Treasury Department to auction off the warrants publicly in order to determine a fair market price.

The JPM warrants were issued to the government under the terms of its TARP loan. Bailed-out banks have the option to repurchase their own warrants, but only if they can strike a deal with the feds regarding a reasonable price. However, many firms have complained that the Treasury is seeking too high a price for the assets -- putting executives in the awkward position of claiming that their stock just isn't worth that much.

In choosing the auction alternative, JPMorgan is waiving its right to repurchase its own warrants (it could potentially bid through the public auction process, but company executives have decided not to do so). If the stock warrants are successfully auctioned off to a third party, their exercise would be dilutive to existing shareholders.

Continue reading JPMorgan Chase slides after waiving right to buy its stock warrants

Sunday Funnies: Economics -- art or science

In running a very tight stock screen recently for value plays Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) showed up on a list of 14 stocks. Interestingly all the large railroad stocks did. This reminded me of several stories I have done on the subject, the most recent being Chasing Value: Watch BNI -- the heck with Citigroup.

To summarize, about six weeks ago a Citigroup (NYSE: C) analyst declared it was time to sell the stock when BNI was trading in the mid $60s -- I said investors should do the opposite, it was a great value. Friday the stock closed at $76.98. Even at this price it is a value and ever more so with oil prices steadly creeping up.

Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Economics -- art or science

Chasing Value: The safest bank in the U.S. -- Wells Fargo

It is being reported today in the Business Journal that the safest bank in the United States is Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC).

According to Global Finance, which will publish its analysis, "World's 50 Safest Banks" in its April issue, international banks dominate the rankings, which show the effects of the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and credit crisis brought on by large Wall Street players. San Francisco-based Wells Fargo is the top-rated U.S. bank at No. 21. European banks now dominate the rankings, with only four U.S. banks among the listing.

Continue reading Chasing Value: The safest bank in the U.S. -- Wells Fargo

What will move the Dow? A look inside the average

"What can get this market going again?" asks Chuck Carlson. In The DRIP Investor he says, "It's helpful to understand what stocks within the Dow need to do well for the index to do well."

"Not surprisingly, IBM (NYSE: IBM), the highest-priced stock in the Dow, carries the greatest weighting at more than 9% of the index. Obviously, with such a heavy weighting in the index, IBM will need to be a decent performer for the Dow to do well going forward.

"And when you total up the exposure of IBM with the other tech stocks in the Dow - Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) - the total tech weighting in the Dow is 16%. Thus, tech stocks matter to the Dow, so it is diffcult to see the Dow sustaining a move upward without a nice rebound in the tech sector.

Continue reading What will move the Dow? A look inside the average

Foreclosures halted by two big banks

moratorium on foreclosuresThe alarming rate at which foreclosures have been rising over the past year is definitely something to be concerned about. Today, some homeowners are getting a little breathing room as a couple of the biggest banks are granting a moratorium on foreclosures.

As Lita Epstein pointed out yesterday, last month was the tenth month in a row where foreclosures were in excess of 250,000 as 274,399 foreclosures were filed in January. The foreclosure epidemic has been a serious drain on the overall economy, and it is hoped that the Obama administration is going to be able to develop a plan to help keep homeowners in their homes.

Continue reading Foreclosures halted by two big banks

Great News: JPMorgan Chase profit down 76%

In an era when banks can lose $10 billion in a single quarter, it is actually amazing that any financial institution can earn a profit. When we look forward to fixing the economic disaster left for the next president to fix, we may wonder why we give so much control of the world economy to people who take such enormous risks while earning more money than anyone else on the planet -- even as they leave the rest of us to pay for their mistakes. That situation must change.

It looks, though, like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) will not be the guiltiest of the parties in this respect. Granted, JPMorgan did get $30 billion in protection from the U.S. to bail out Bear Stearns and it took $25 billion from the TARP. But at least it is still making a profit -- albeit a much smaller one than it did in the fourth quarter of 2007. Specifically, JPMorgan made $702 million in the fourth quarter or 7 cents a share -- down 76% from the $3 billion it earned in the same period last year. (However, without a $1.3 billion gain from closing a joint venture and "risk- management results," JPMorgan would have lost 28 cents a share.)

Continue reading Great News: JPMorgan Chase profit down 76%

Why do BAC and JPM want to be Citigroup?

If we keep hearing about companies that are "too big to fail" what in the world are we doing allowing Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) to swallow up everything in their financial path so that they can become even bigger, potentially creating the next catastrophe!

During my tenure at BloggingStocks I have made some bonehead calls and some that were more astute. Among my better calls was the story I wrote 20 months ago, Break up Citigroup as soon as possible, and the follow on story a year later when nothing had changed: Citigroup should hire forensic auditors. My colleagues Peter Cohan and Douglas McIntyre made similar points.

Given these stories and the dialog I have had with many of our intelligent and equally frustrated readers, I have had thoughts of starting a non-profit organization to shadow the Securities and Exchange Commission that has been dormant for the last ten years. Instead of hiring Wall Street types to run the SEC we might do better hiring inquisitive university students, and not from the business or law schools, but the accounting, journalism and criminology programs.

Continue reading Why do BAC and JPM want to be Citigroup?

Banks not disclosing billions -- why all the secrecy, Paulson?

A spokesman for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Thomas Kelly said his firm has not disclosed what it did with the $25 billion in emergency bailout money it has received. In fact, JPMorgan Chase is declining to provide any such disclosure.

AP has reported that none of the 21 banks that received $1 billion or more from taxpayers is tracking, or at least willing to disclose how they are using the money. Let me be clear -- THIS STINKS TO THE HIGH HEAVENS!

What kind of deals did Treasury Secretary Paulson make with these favored financial institutions? The money would be very easy to track. Why wouldn't that be a part of the bargain?

Paulson obviously did not read Conservative bankers? Surely you jest!, but he should have. Of course, having former Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) CEO Paulson negotiate with his Wall Street buddies on behalf of the taxpayer is highly suspect. At a minimum we have the good 'ol boy network operating in full form.

The banks simply are avoiding what should be required scrutiny by pleading ignorance. I don't believe the money can't be tracked, or even traced now after the fact. What happened to the idea of more transparency? More cover up I fear!

The banks should be subject to full disclosure. The use of the funds should be subject to review. Government money should be subject to the Freedom of Information Act. Why all the secrecy?

PS: Personal emails I have been receiving and the initial comments indicate strong sentiment about this issue. I encourage those that care to forward this story to their elected officials and friends encouraging full disclosure -- as promised! Obama used the internet to help win the White House, lets use it to get someone to listen with an internet blast from all over the country!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Big sucking sound as WaMu white collars get the axe in Seattle

All is not well in Seattle for executives at Washington Mutual. The Seattle Times has reported that some 3,400 WaMu employees, mostly from the company's headquarters, are to be let go by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). The good news for workers is, it appears that employees at WaMu's branch operations will, for the most part, be spared the ax.

These types of staff dismissals should come as no surprise in an era when companies are quickly consolidating just to survive. I suppose that it's fairly standard practice for an acquiring company to thin out the executive herd of any distressed company which it has recently purchased. In regard to this particular instance, The Seattle Times quotes JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon as stating: "We are going to build a great company for the long run. Unfortunately, that entails tough decisions in the short run." Tough decisions always tend to ooze downward.

To the credit of JP Morgan & Chase, the executives who are to receive their walking papers at WaMu, will apparently be sent off with moderate severance packages. However, this does little to lessen the pain of good jobs lost. Additionally, The Seattle Times article opens a discussion about the ramifications of this deep payroll cut and operations consolidation upon the local commercial lease space market in a city with an impending surplus of commercial office space.

Preliminary indications are that JPMorgan's consolidation of WaMu in to the 42-story WaMu Center will put approximately 500,000 square feet of commercial lease space back into the hands of Seattle landlords. At least one commercial real estate broker in Seattle indicated that WaMu's withdrawal from commercial space there could lead to slight downward pressure on rents. However, citing a rental office inventory of approximately 37 million square feet, Oscar Oliveira, a senior vice president with brokerage Colliers International, is quoted by The Seattle Times as stating: "It adds a couple percentage points to the vacancy rate... The bank's moves alone won't push lease rates down..."

JP Morgan, perhaps sensing shifting political wind, will refinance mortgages

It's been said that the grace that Joe DiMaggio, The Yankee Clipper, exhibited was so encompassing that he seemed to move before the crack of the bat, to be perfectly positioned for an outfield catch. And of course hockey's Wayne Gretzky's greatness stemmed in large part from his uncanny ability to always skate to where the puck would be, not to where it was. There are advantages to being one step ahead of the game.

JP Morgan Chase's decision to modify the terms of $70 billion in mortgages, represents as much a political calculation as an economic one, so says economist Richard Felson.

"One can interpret the action as JP Morgan thinking two steps ahead," Felson said. "From a strictly economic standpoint, it looks premature and costly. From a political standpoint, however, it looks quite prudent." JP Morgan's (NYSE: JPM) shares fell 97 cents to $40.85 in Monday morning trading.

That's because Democrats in Tuesday's U.S. election are likely to rack-up seat gains in the House and Senate. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, also leads U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, in the U.S. Presidential race. Felson said the small chance that Democrats could achieve large majorities in the House and Senate may have prompted JP Morgan "to leave before the crack of bat," from a mortgage issue standpoint.

Continue reading JP Morgan, perhaps sensing shifting political wind, will refinance mortgages

Chasing Value: JPM creates JNJ opportunity

Yesterday, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was downgraded by JP Morgan as reported by my colleague Melly Alazraki in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded - really?.

I wanted to further elaborate on some issues because of the position Johnson & Johnson holds in our hearts, and many of our portfolios. I should also point out that the downgrade did have a caveat, the analyst believes the stock may very well regain strength toward the end of 2009.

JPM believes Johnson & Johnson is expensive relative to it's peers. That should be expected from my point of view because it is considered the measure of a safe haven in our uncertain times. The tougher the economy becomes the more one should expect JNJ to separate itself from others.

Continue reading Chasing Value: JPM creates JNJ opportunity

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 04:37 PM

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