Leading advisor Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus, reports that a Goldman Sachs analyst has chosen one of the stocks on his newsletter's buy list -- ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- as his top pick in the energy sector.
"There was an extremely interesting piece recently in Barron's by the oil analyst at Goldman Sachs who predicted $100 oil back in late 2004. We'd been buying energy stocks for almost a year at that point, but, although I expected oil prices to rise, I had no idea they'd go this high.
"In any case, the analyst, whose name is Arjun Murti, said he expects oil to reach $150 to $200 sometime within the next 24 months. The low end of that range is only a Middle East incident away, but the high end still seems like a reach, especially given weakening economic conditions.
"Beauty is as beauty does, the saying goes, and Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) has delivered a beautiful earnings report," says Jack Adamo in his industry-leading Insiders Plus. Here's his latest.
"Despite a 14% increase in advertising (or perhaps, because of it) the company delivered EPS up 26%. In North America, the only underperforming region, revenues continued their slow downward slide. But active representatives increased for the first time in ages, which may brighten the future on the company's home turf.
"International sales continued to soar. Latin America was 19% higher in local currencies, and 32% higher after translation into the American Peso, also known as the U.S. Dollar. In Central & Eastern Europe, first-quarter revenue rose 17% (6% in local currency). Revenue in China grew 29% (19% local). Only Japan dragged things down a bit with its 2% gain.
The model portfolio of Insiders Plus gains 48% last year; here, editor Jack Adamo reviews two of his portfolio holdings -- both bank stocks being accumulated by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.
"U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) reported a slight decrease in Q1 earnings of 62¢ per share versus 63¢ last year; the shares rose 2.8% the next day. Compared to the disastrous results of its peers, this small decline in earnings was a home run.
"That's a testament to the company's savvy managers. USB steered clear of the toxic problems that choked most banks. Only 2.7% of its loans are subprime.
"Warren Buffett's Berkshire-Hathaway continues to buy the stock steadily. Recent SEC filings show that in the fourth quarter of 2007 Berkshire increased its share of the Minneapolis-based bank by 3 million shares to a total of 75 million.
"This represents 4.4% of its shares outstanding, and up tremendously from its stake of 23 million shares just a few years ago. The Wizard of Omaha knows what he likes and why he likes it.
"Meanwhile, Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) reported Q1 earnings of 60¢ per share down 9% year-over-year, but up 46% from the December quarter. Like USB, Fargo shares continue to be accumulated at Berkshire Hathaway.
"The stock is a solid long-term buy, with good prospects of steadily raising its 4.2% dividend. It has capital appreciation potential to boot, especially after the housing hangover abates."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
"With its CEO recently buying $10 million of shares, PepsiAmericas Inc. (NYSE: PAS) has to be considered one of the most credible Insider stories in quite some time," notes Jack Adamo.
Here, in his Insiders Plus newsletter, the advisor -- who specializes in assessing situations in which corporate insiders are purchasing stock -- he looks at the world's second-largest Pepsi bottler.
"When I was a kid, a Pepsi was a dime; today, it's about $1.50 for the same size bottle. So, forgive me if I laugh myself silly when analysts say Pepsi bottlers are in trouble due to cost inflation.
"The price of the product has gone up at a compound annual rate of 5.6% per year for 50 years. Is this year going to kill it? I think not. Nor does CEO, Rober Pohlad whose recent purchase was done through a family-owned holding company.
"It was not a huge buy in relation to his holdings -- it increased his stake in the company from 9.6% to 9.9% -- but $10 million is $10 million. Do that a few times, and pretty soon it starts adding up to real money. (Sorry, couldn't resist.)
"The stock has fallen this year from $36 to $26, which is about where he made his recent buys. After a blowout 2007, the company guided down expectations for 2008, citing economic weakness. The stock quickly tanked.
"I don't go into denial about a bad investment; when I make a mistake, I'll take the loss and move on," says Jack Adamo, noting that the tendency for investors to wait to recover their capital can be "a recipe for disaster."
On the other hand, the editor of Insiders Plus notes, "If you still like an investment that declines, and have faith in your analysis, lower prices provide an opportunity for bigger potential profits. And that's how I feel about American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO)."
"The recent additional '25% off sale' for this retailing stock is a great buying opportunity. Not only is the stock selling at 46% below its 52-week high, it's selling at a P/E of 9 with expected growth in earnings of 12% next year.
"The growth rate is well below its historical average; so, analysts are expecting a slowdown, which is, obviously, priced into the stock. Even supposing results are softer than expected, one would be hard-pressed to lose money on a buy like this.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"A top speculative idea for 2008 is Calgary-based Penn West Energy Trust (NYSE: PWE)," says Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus. "We would consider this stock a 'smart money' buy.
"Commodities guru Jim Rogers said four years ago that energy prices would go a lot higher and stay there longer than anyone supposed. We believed him, and loaded up on energy, with spectacular results. We're up 45% this year alone.
"The thesis still stands. Within five years Mexico, our second largest oil supplier, will be a net importer of oil. Prices will remain high.
"Penn West Energy Trust is out of favor because Canadian tax laws change in 2009, and it faces corporate taxes. But with the units currently yielding 15%, even a few quarters of lower payouts in a recession, and a 30% tax bite in 2009, the units will still yield near 10%.
"With its long-lived reserves, the company has good growth prospects to boot. Great for current income or long-term total return. Buy up to $33.50."
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Want to take advantage of the subprime debacle, but you're too frightened or don't know how?" asks Jack Adamo in his Insiders Plus. "The ultimate insider, Warren Buffett, does.
"Every time the market has a sector meltdown, the Wizard of Omaha swoops down like a hawk and picks off great bargains. He made tons of money for Berkshire Hathaway B (NYSE: BRK.b) investors after the tech crash by buying 'junk bonds' of strong telecom companies he knew would survive -- and tech isn't even an area Buffett knows well.
"Financial stocks are his sweet spot. He'll snatch up great bargains in distressed securities in the next few quarters.
"Then, in 2008 or 2009, the company will deliver fabulous earnings, and the stock price will shoot up again. Buy Berkshire-Hathaway Class-B, preferably on pullbacks below $4,200. Don't let the price scare you. The shares are cheap on a P/E or price/earnings-to-growth basis. I consider the stock a top conservative buy for 2008."
"Open interest in gold futures, which measures the current size of bets made by futures traders, is 34% lower than it was in May of 2006, which was the last time we touched a speculative price peak. That suggests that much of this crowd is still on the sidelines. When they come rushing back in, the stocks can move up very fast."
The advisor continues, "The cheapest by far of all our gold stocks is still Compania de Minas Buenaventura. Even being up 53% year-to-date, it's selling at 15-times this year's expected earnings, with year end only three months away. It's unlikely earnings will miss expectations this late in the year.
"Of course, expectations a year out are much less reliable, but if current analysts' estimates are close, the stock is a screaming bargain. With '08 estimates of $3.59 a share, the stock is selling at 11-times next year's earnings, and has an earnings growth rate of 37%. Price/earnings-to-growth ratios like that make me salivate.
"If you've not filled your gold positions, here's your chance. I don't expect another opportunity for at least four months. Gold is usually strong going into the holiday season, and sometimes all the way into January. Buy Buenaventura."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
What are the best speculations and investments among metals, miners, and other resource plays? To find out, I turned to 20 of the nation's leading newsletter editors, as well as speakers from the recent New Orleans Conference, a leading forum for resource advisors.
Their current top ideas cover a wide diversity of ideas, from gold and silver, from alumina and copper, to platinum and palladium. These picks cover markets from Chile to China and from Canada to Russia. These ideas also range from large cap, well-established, and diversified companies to small cap, development-stage junior speculations.
Readers should only consider these ideas as a starting place for their own research and should keep in mind the caveat that any stock you buy should only be considered within the framework of your own time horizon and risk parameters. Meanwhile, here are 20 different advisors assessing various aspects of the metals, mining, and resources sectors:
To conclude this review, I'm turning now to the most popular sector in this year's annual Top Picks report -- financial stocks. Of particular note this year is the type of financial stocks that rose to the top of the advisors' buy lists.
In past years, it was routine to see brokerage firms and large cap consumer banks among the Top Picks. This year, only one such company was chosen; Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) was selected as the favorite stock of both Mark Skousen and Kelley Wright.
Outside of Citi, the advisory community looked to an area that has rarely been cited in previous Top Picks reports --specialty finance companies. For example, Gordon Pape selected Brookfield Asset Management, which provides financing to real estate ventures.
Neil George chose a pair of companies spun off from Australia's Macquarie Bank. Both the Macquarie Infrastructure Trust (NYSE:MIC) and the Macquarie Infrastructure Group (OTC:MCORF) provide financing to global road, bridge, and airport development projects.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
Lloyds TSB Group PLC (NYSE: LYG) is a favorite conservative stock idea for 2007 from Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus.
"While it is not the Lloyd's of London of specialty insurance fame," points out Adamo, "this London-based financial services powerhouse has roots dating back to 1765, and operates in three segments: U.K. retail banking; insurance and investments; and wholesale and international banking. It also provides brokerage, asset management, and pension services.
"It's not exactly exciting, but I think it will noticeably outpace the market in 2007. What it has going for it is financial clout, with a $60 billion market capitalization and a current dividend yield of 5.7%. Growth in earnings is expected to come in around 12.5% from 2006 to 2007.
"Lloyds currently trades for 11.25 times expected 2007 EPS of $3.86 per share. I look for total return to come in at around 18% in 2007. Lloyds' high yield provides cover in a down market, and may add extra price appreciation as investors go for yield in a falling market. That could push total return to the 25% range.
"Another significant factor in its favor to consider is the likely appreciation of the British pound sterling against the U.S. dollar, which will provide a boost to returns for U.S. investors."