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Option update 8-29-07: Yahoo (YHOO) volatility up on expectations of Alibaba, Yang & EPS

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) implied volatility up on expectations of Alibaba, Yang & EPS.


YHOO is recently trading $22.58. Recently, Alibaba.com, China's largest e-commerce company, hired NM Rothschild to advise it on a stock listing. YHOO has 40% ownership stake in Alibaba. YHOO is expected to report EPS on 10/16. YHOO over all option implied volatility of 38 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Rediff.com India Limited (ADR) (NASDAQ: REDF) volatility elevated as REDF trades near 52-week lows.

REDF, a provider of online consumer offerings, is recently up 30 cents to $15.07. REDF over all option implied volatility of 59 is above its 52-week average of 51 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Yahoo! Auctions to retire?

I've been getting buzz about major activity dealing with Yahoo!'s (NASDAQ: YHOO) auctions. As of this writing, it's difficult to sort out. I have encountered a site announcement stating that Yahoo! Auctions is closing shop and I have encountered stories that claim Yahoo! Auctions is being purchased by Jack Ma of TaoBao fame. One thing is for sure, something is happening and I'm relatively sure that it's not just a ploy to throw some distraction into the on-again/off-again Microsoft to Yahoo! negotiations. It's clear that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) seeks to join forces with Yahoo! in some manner, and it appears that Yahoo! Auctions are slated for retirement, but at this point all of the other noise is just that -- noise.

For the WSJ's take on the MSFT/YHOO story, and a bushel of public comments, click here.

I'm speculating that the increasing pressure by the IRS toward requiring increased revelation of auction sales statistics may be playing a part in the Yahoo! Auctions closure. It's a given that the taxing authorities aren't going to leave the internet alone. I feel that it will be only a short while before the IRS selects a few "big time" online auction sellers to make examples of in a token tax crack down.

Additionally, we must consider that in November 2007, many internet sales regulations are back up for review. It's time to hold your breath, all you small-time internet retailers. The sheriff's comin' to town.

An eBay joke gets free and runs for the money!

It's being called an April Fool's joke gone wild, but four days after the fake press release hit the web it's still picking up steam and is showing no signs of slowing down. Apparently first released on Pheebay.com, the faux news release claims that Jack Ma of Alibaba renown would be making an overture for ownership of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), the stated goal being a gut thrust drive at upsetting online auction leader eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) for good. The fake notice also pulls Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) into the fray but alas, to no avail.

What makes this situation at least mildly remarkable is the response that it has received. It seems that as people realize that it's only a joke, the uniform response is one of disappointment and dismay in finding out that it is just not true. The fake notice was well received on the Powersellersunite boards where you can easily see that had it not been a joke it had the potential of becoming an over the top success. This serves as another quick and passing reminder that there are a great number of disenfranchised former eBay sellers who still have an axe to grind.

I read the full release on AssociatedContent about this light hearted fantasy, and I think about all the options available on the internet. I am reminded that strange things do happen in this internet world and that yesterday's joke is sometimes today's block buster hit. Don't turn your back on the true possibility that the eBay slayer is standing in the shadows ready to strike. As David Lee Roth sang in Fair Warning, "What you think is nothing, might be something after all."

Is news of Alibaba's growth whacking eBay's stock today?

I've been listening to Yahoo's analyst day in the background all day today and just heard the founder of Chinese Internet portal and Yahoo! partner Alibaba speak. His name is Jack Ma and he did talk about eBay.

Ma said he foresaw eBay would be coming to China, which was one reason Alibaba branched into consumer-to-consumer sales. AliPay is its payment system -- a direct competitor to Paypal. Ma says there are lots of eBay users that use AliPay.

Apparently Alibaba has eBay shareholders concerned (international is a huge part of eBay's growth plans). An analyst note referenced on theflyonthewall.com yesterday referred to how Yahoo's shareholder meeting could be a negative for eBay, partly because China and Alibaba would be a highlight.

EBay's shares are down 2.4% today. But I just checked and find that Yahoo!'s stock is down 2.8% today. So even if eBay shareholders are worried about Alibaba, Yahoo! shareholders are even more worried about other issues.

Ma is wrapping up his comments on the call now. He thinks Alibaba will be a huge company, one of the top three Internet companies in the world in 10 years. We'll see!

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 04:55 AM

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