The New York Times has reported that Warren Buffett is contemplating buying a sizable stake in the investment banking firm Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). No doubt the rumor affected the stock, which closed today at $123.00 per share, up $8.67 on the day. It had closed as low as $99.75 this past summer amid the news of two of its hedge funds being distressed over subprime loan investments.
If there is money to be made, which I think there is, then "My pal Warren" will be investing. I will be watching closely because I own Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) and Bear Stearns as well. I have written about both stocks: Serious Money: Safe havens -- T-Bills or Warren Buffett? and Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing. In the case of Berkshire I am making a tidy sum, but in the case of Bear Stearns I was broadsided by the subprime fiasco and am just now recovering, although I have not held it long.
It is said that BSC might be willing to sell about 20% of the company and that CEO James E. Cayne, is looking for as much as a 40% premium. A premium to what is the question? If you add it to today's closing price you arrive at a value of $172.20, right at BSC's 52-week high of $172.61. I do not think Buffett or any of the other potential investors would be willing to pay this much or should pay this much. I do believe they would be willing to pay as much as a 20% premium, with an eye to obtaining the potential of a 20% remaining return if they can "set the ship right" and get back on a growth track.




