Jamie Dlugosch posts
FeedPosted Nov 14th 2009 11:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2009
The collapse of the domestic housing market crushed businesses that made things that went into the building boom. One of the biggest makers of stuff for homes is Whirlpool (WHR). During the real estate bull market, Whirlpool was firing on all cylinders. But when the market crashed, so did WHR stock.
Since bottoming earlier this year, WHR has made a big recovery. That recovery was based on a recovery in the domestic real estate market. What has yet to be priced into the stock is a boom in overseas shipments.
Continue reading Weak dollar winner #1: Whirlpool (WHR)
Posted Sep 13th 2009 1:00PM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: Stocks to Sell
In my perusal of gold stocks, only one -- Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) -- trades rationally, but that is not enough to justify holding the stock if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are likely to fall.
Even with gold at $1,000 per ounce, HMY trades for a modest 12 times trailing earnings and 15 times forward earnings. For this valuation to hold up, gold prices need to continue their ascent at a fairly significant clip. If gold is truly a hedge against the end of the world scenario and collapse of the dollar, investor expectations should be to protect capital. These gold mining stocks, including Harmony, trade like growth stocks.
Do you see my point?
Continue reading Gold stock to sell #5: Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY)
Posted Sep 13th 2009 9:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: Yamana Gold (AUY), Stocks to Sell
One of the hottest gold stocks is Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY).
With a share price that is affordable to the retail customer, smaller investors have been gobbling up shares in 2009.
But like AngloGold, the credit crisis knocked the wind out of the Yamana trade.
Shares actually were fairly valued when they bottomed below $5 per share. Now, with more than 100% recovery of that value, AUY trades above $10 per share. As a result, the valuation is way ahead of itself. Shares of AUY trade for more than 17 times trailing earnings and 18 times forward earnings. Gold prices would have to continue increasing by 15% to 20% per annum in order to justify these prices.
Continue reading Gold stock to sell #3: Yamana Gold (AUY)
Posted Jul 19th 2009 12:00PM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: AFLAC Inc (AFL), Eastman Kodak (EK), Stocks to Sell
Investors continued to sell Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) during the second quarter, and shares bottomed at $2 per share.
Looking forward, I recently added Eastman Kodak to my Penny Stock Winners model portfolio as a buy recommendation.
In my opinion, the carnage at Eastman Kodak has been complete and the upside benefit of the digtal revolution is worth the speculation. The company may never fully recover from the last few years, but a small improvement in operations can result in big gains in the stock.
I would be a buyer of Eastman Kodak at these prices.
Next: Stock to Avoid #10
Posted Jul 19th 2009 11:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: United Technologies (UTX), Stocks to Sell
Don't be deceived by the short-term performance of United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). The weakness of the dollar in the second quarter helped push shares of this multinational manufacturer higher. But these gains merely allowed the company to recover big losses sustained during the first quarter of the year.
The double whammy here for investors is exposure to the aerospace industry. As described previously, the weakness in the airline industry will negatively impact revenue for those companies providing equipment to the space. In addition, reductions in defense spending will also negatively impact UTX.
We are in the early stages of seeing change in how this company operates in the current environment. There is no catalyst for this stock to go higher, and shares are vulnerable to the extent the dollar strengthens. I would sell UTX.
Next: Stock to Avoid #9
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