Continue reading Sirus XM (SIRI): An Underappreciated Monopoly

Sirus XM (SIRI): An Underappreciated Monopoly originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Mar 2010 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Apple (AAPL) has been dominating the domestic market over the past few years, and its products and innovations have been huge successes. The latest winner is the iPhone smart phone.

Now, with a weak dollar, look for sales of this fantastic product to explode across the globe. If you think the success domestically is something, wait to see what sales do overseas.

Continue reading Weak dollar winner #5: Apple (AAPL)

Weak dollar winner #5: Apple (AAPL) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

PepsiCo (PEP) understands the importance of global sales. So much so that its CEO, Indra Nooyi, was born and raised in India. Having led the company's global strategy for more than a decade prepared her well for the challenges of the leadership of the entire company.

That preparation is timely, given the weakness in the dollar and the explosion of opportunity for sales outside U.S. borders.

Continue reading Weak dollar winner #4: PepsiCo (PEP)

Weak dollar winner #4: PepsiCo (PEP) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Nov 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

We have seen what exports can do for fast food restaurants. Can the same happen with coffee stocks?

In some ways, it is already happening. Starbucks (SBUX) has made a big push overseas and many of its stores can be found in foreign markets. And a weak dollar is going to accelerate the trend greatly.

Continue reading Weak dollar winner #3: Starbucks (SBUX)

Weak dollar winner #3: Starbucks (SBUX) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Nov 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week, under the guise of betting on America, Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) made an offer to buy all outstanding shares of Burlington Northern (BNI) for a significant premium.

In making the announcement, Buffett confidently claimed that rail would play a big role in the recovery of the economy. What he did not say was that this was a bet on the U.S. dollar.

Continue reading Five winners of a weak dollar: SBUX, PEP, AAPL

Five winners of a weak dollar: SBUX, PEP, AAPL originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Nov 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Nothing says manufacturing like Caterpillar (CAT). Those monster trucks made for earth-moving, digging and trucking are the epitome of making stuff in the good old USA.

Emerging markets are gaining confidence in building again, and a declining dollar makes Caterpillar equipment cheap for them. So, look for big sales gains in Caterpillar as the dollar drops.

Continue reading Weak dollar winner #2: Caterpillar (CAT)

Weak dollar winner #2: Caterpillar (CAT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Nov 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The collapse of the domestic housing market crushed businesses that made things that went into the building boom. One of the biggest makers of stuff for homes is Whirlpool (WHR). During the real estate bull market, Whirlpool was firing on all cylinders. But when the market crashed, so did WHR stock.

Since bottoming earlier this year, WHR has made a big recovery. That recovery was based on a recovery in the domestic real estate market. What has yet to be priced into the stock is a boom in overseas shipments.

Continue reading Weak dollar winner #1: Whirlpool (WHR)

Weak dollar winner #1: Whirlpool (WHR) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In my perusal of gold stocks, only one -- Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) -- trades rationally, but that is not enough to justify holding the stock if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are likely to fall.

Even with gold at $1,000 per ounce, HMY trades for a modest 12 times trailing earnings and 15 times forward earnings. For this valuation to hold up, gold prices need to continue their ascent at a fairly significant clip. If gold is truly a hedge against the end of the world scenario and collapse of the dollar, investor expectations should be to protect capital. These gold mining stocks, including Harmony, trade like growth stocks.

Do you see my point?

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #5: Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY)

Gold stock to sell #5: Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Sep 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Imagine what happens to gold mining stocks if gold were to trade for less than $500 per ounce? It would not be pretty. These stocks are priced to perfection and beyond. That is why they should be sold.

Add Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) to the list of overvalued gold miners. At $40 per share, GG now trades within spitting distance of previous highs.

Those highs were attained at the end of an expansionary period, not at the beginning.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #4: Goldcorp (GG)

Gold stock to sell #4: Goldcorp (GG) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Sep 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One of the hottest gold stocks is Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY).

With a share price that is affordable to the retail customer, smaller investors have been gobbling up shares in 2009.

But like AngloGold, the credit crisis knocked the wind out of the Yamana trade.

Shares actually were fairly valued when they bottomed below $5 per share. Now, with more than 100% recovery of that value, AUY trades above $10 per share. As a result, the valuation is way ahead of itself. Shares of AUY trade for more than 17 times trailing earnings and 18 times forward earnings. Gold prices would have to continue increasing by 15% to 20% per annum in order to justify these prices.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #3: Yamana Gold (AUY)

Gold stock to sell #3: Yamana Gold (AUY) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Sep 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) is one of the largest gold mining operations in the world.

The gold cult has made this company very wealthy -- AU has a current market capitalization of more than $15 billion.

I highly doubt the jewelry market could support that valuation, but the wacko gold bugs certainly do.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #2: AngloGold Ashanti (AU)

Gold stock to sell #2: AngloGold Ashanti (AU) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 12 Sep 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) announced that it would begin eliminating its hedges against a collapse in gold prices.

In so doing, the company is raising some $3 billion with the sale of stock that will dilute current shareholders.

While the gold hedges may have acted as a brake on revenues and profits in a rising gold price environment, the strategy was prudent.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #1: Barrick Gold (ABX)

Gold stock to sell #1: Barrick Gold (ABX) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 12 Sep 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Shares of American Express (NYSE: AXP) bottomed in early March at just over $10 per share.

Instead of covering, I hedged my bet by keeping the American Express short open. I suppose that is the entire point of absolute return investing, but boy, was I wrong in doing that.

AXP shot up like a rocket over the last three months and now trades above $23 per share. It has been a big gainer this year, returning 25% through the end of the second quarter.

Continue reading Stock to avoid #10 -- American Express (AXP)

Stock to avoid #10 -- American Express (AXP) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 19 Jul 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Investors continued to sell Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) during the second quarter, and shares bottomed at $2 per share.

Looking forward, I recently added Eastman Kodak to my Penny Stock Winners model portfolio as a buy recommendation.

In my opinion, the carnage at Eastman Kodak has been complete and the upside benefit of the digtal revolution is worth the speculation. The company may never fully recover from the last few years, but a small improvement in operations can result in big gains in the stock.

I would be a buyer of Eastman Kodak at these prices.

Next: Stock to Avoid #10

Stock to avoid #9 -- Eastman Kodak (EK) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 19 Jul 2009 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Don't be deceived by the short-term performance of United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). The weakness of the dollar in the second quarter helped push shares of this multinational manufacturer higher. But these gains merely allowed the company to recover big losses sustained during the first quarter of the year.

The double whammy here for investors is exposure to the aerospace industry. As described previously, the weakness in the airline industry will negatively impact revenue for those companies providing equipment to the space. In addition, reductions in defense spending will also negatively impact UTX.

We are in the early stages of seeing change in how this company operates in the current environment. There is no catalyst for this stock to go higher, and shares are vulnerable to the extent the dollar strengthens. I would sell UTX.

Next: Stock to Avoid #9

Stock to avoid #8 -- United Technologies (UTX) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 19 Jul 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Similar to Dupont, I selected Eastman Chemical (NYSE: EMN) as a stock to avoid due to rising input prices and low margins. It is a simple formula that cannot be broken: If a company cannot pass along higher costs, it will make less.

The market has yet to grasp that concept with respect to EMN. The stock has more than doubled since bottoming in March and has skyrocketed during the second quarter. This is in stock contrast to the poor performance at Dupont.

Continue reading Stock to avoid #6 -- Eastman Chemical (EMN)

Stock to avoid #6 -- Eastman Chemical (EMN) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 19 Jul 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the first two months of the second quarter Boeing (NYSE: BA) was on fire. BA gained significantly during that time, but then the company announced a delay in their much-awaited DreamShip -- a delay that opened the door for the airlines to cancel orders. Speculation based on that scenario slapped the stock back down to the flat line for the second quarter.

Unfortunately, the news does not get better for Boeing. There is too much capacity in the airline space, and new planes are not needed.

I would be a seller of Boeing today.

Next: Stock to Avoid #6

Stock to avoid #5 -- Boeing (BA) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Given the economic crisis and global recession, I hypothesized that multinationals may suffer as a result of a strong dollar. The idea being that investors would flock to the dollar in search of safety. Over the last quarter though, the reverse has been true.

The dollar weakened significantly as investors bet against the greenback due to inflationary spending in the U.S. As a result, the multinationals have been big winners in the last quarter.

3M (NYSE: MMM) though was only up slightly in the second quarter as the company's products failed to capture the imagination of buyers across the globe. When the dollar strengthens in the latter half of 2009, look for MMM to stumble.

Next: Stock to Avoid #4

Stock to avoid #3 -- 3M (MMM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 18 Jul 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Another stock leveraged to the oil market is Dupont (NYSE: DD). Because many of the company's products are derived from crude oil, rising oil prices negatively impact profit margins. The only recourse, then, is to raise the price for consumers. But doing so in this environment is unlikely given the weakness in the economy.

As a result, the dynamics of the market are such that profits for DD will be lower in the near term.

That puts the company in a bit of a Catch-22.

Continue reading Stock to avoid #2 -- Dupont (DD)

Stock to avoid #2 -- Dupont (DD) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I take my absolute return approach to a deeper level by periodically buying and selling positions during the year. In late February, I suggested that investors cover the short position of Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) at $6.35 per share.

In my last update of the stocks on this list, I suggested that I would still be a seller of Delta. Shares of Delta did indeed lose value over the last three months. This move coincided with a blast in oil prices. Airlines are already struggling with a weak economy and excess capacity. Rising jet fuel prices make matters worse.

Continue reading Stock to avoid #1 -- Delta Airlines (DAL)

Stock to avoid #1 -- Delta Airlines (DAL) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 18 Jul 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.