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Merck falls on profit forecasts

Shares of drug maker Merck & Co Inc. (NYSE: MRK) are trading down 3.0% in early day trading after the company stated its 2007 profit forecast, which fell short of analysts' expectations. The company also forecast an earnings increase in 2008 due to strong sales of its HPV vaccine Gardasil and diabetes treatment Januvia.

Merck announced it expects earnings between $3.08 and $3.14 a share for 2007, while analysts, on average, predicted earnings of $3.15 a share. Including items, the company predicted its earnings will fall in a range between $1.45 to $1.51 per share.

Looking ahead to 2008, the company now anticipates its profit will rise to a range of $3.28 to $3.38 a share helped by increased sales of its products. Including a $100 million restructuring charge and an AstraZeneca partnership gain, the company forecast earnings between $3.96 to $4.06 a share in 2008. But the target offered by Merck for 2008 also missed analysts' predictions for earnings of $3.39 a share.

Continue reading Merck falls on profit forecasts

Merck upgraded as strong drug sales are predicted

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) opened at $43.79. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.79 and a high of $44.93. As of 1:20 this afternoon, MRK is trading at $44.76, up $1.82 (4.2%).

The stock has been relatively flat in the mid 40s over the past few months, hitting a one year high of $46.55 in January. Merck shares are trading higher today thanks to a Citigroup analyst predicting strong sales of the new type II diabetes drug Januvia and upgrading the stock to "buy." The technical indicators for MRK have been bearish and steady, but S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STAR buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. MRK hasn't been below $40 since August and has shown support around $43. This trade could be risky if the stock loses ground with the dust-up surrounding its cervical cancer vaccine, but even if MRK pulls back some, this position could be protected by the strong levels of support around $41.

Brent Archer is an analyst on the move at Investors Observer. (Free Subscription)

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 09:45 PM

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