NBC Universal, which recently was the subject of a proposed transaction between General Electric (GE) and Comcast (CMCSA), is having a serious problem with The Jay Leno Show. It's not performing well in the ratings. But wait, there's more, as a typical infomercial narrator might intone: The Tonight Show isn't faring any better under the aegis of Conan O'Brien.
Worse, the issues with the 10 PM Leno programming asset go beyond just his ratings. The show is exerting a negative halo effect over the local newscasts. If you don't have a strong lead-in, then the content that follows will suffer.
Last year, I composed a not-so-bullish appraisal of NBC Universal's Jay Leno strategy. NBC Universal, which General Electric (NYSE: GE) has an 80% stake in, wanted to make sure that Leno's services did not wind up in the hands of a competing media entity when they handed The Tonight Show over to Conan O'Brien, so they bestowed upon him a talk program to be aired weeknights at 10 PM. It debuts tonight. I basically argued that NBC would survive without Leno, and that such an odd programming choice at 10 PM, when scripted intellectual assets are usually broadcast, might not be the optimal paradigm to engage.
Well, I still feel this is a risky move, but I do have to say that an article by Scott Collins over at the Los Angeles Times has piqued my interest in the expected economical benefit that Leno-at-10 might imply. Leno might not bring in a ton of eyeballs, but his profit margin could be acceptable given the lower capital necessary to fund his extravaganza.
I found myself writing about General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC the other day, specifically about CEO Jeff Zucker's apparent flummoxed realization that radical changes may be needed to stanch the ratings erosion that have plagued the major broadcast networks in this brave new media world. Now, I have another, equally interesting subject to look at: Jay Leno will be given a talk show after he hands The Tonight Show over to Conan O'Brien. The program will air on weeknights from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m.
As we all probably know by now, NBC was intent on having O'Brien take over Leno's position as a way of ensuring that he would stay at the network. Leno, as one would imagine, reportedly hated giving the job up. NBC, however, did not want Leno to head over to another network. Supposedly, Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC was perhaps interested in taking Leno on. So, the powers that be at the Peacock net have secured the services of Mr. Leno by offering him the chance to do something new: namely, distribute his schtick at an earlier time.
Okay, I'll tell you, I think this is a ridiculous idea. On many levels. Let's talk about level one: is this even going to work? Do people want to see Leno at 10 p.m.? Hey, maybe they will. But I get the feeling that this might be too much of a change for people used to seeing Leno at 11:30. Let's go to level two: why does NBC want to program what would essentially be two Tonight Shows? Won't there be some cannibalization going on here? You always hear media companies whining about cannibalization.
Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for Jon Stewart.
Stewart, whose "Daily Show with Jon Stewart" returned to the air yesterday, has been supportive of the striking writers. Nonetheless, he apparently is annoyed with the Writers Guild of America. During his show, Stewart mentioned that his production company tried to reach the same deal with the guild that David Letterman's Worldwide Pants received and was turned down.
Apparently, the guild wants to present a united front against the media conglomerates, including Comedy Central's corporate parent Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA), Walt Disney Co.(NYSE: DIS)'s ABC, General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)'s NBC and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX). That's why Jay Leno and Jimmy Kimmel are being forced to appear as guests on each other's programs and why the Golden Globes were canceled by NBC.
InterActive Corp. (NYSE: IACI) seems to be following the herd with this week's announcement of a comedy news channel that sounds very similar to Comedy Central's The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. The new IAC property, titled 23/6, will partner with liberal political site the Huffington Post and will be in full comedic charge of satirizing the news with humor interlaced throughout all moments.
Bloggers from the Huffington Post as well as comedy writers from The Daily Show and The Simpsons will be part of the cast, so expect some funny moments from the new network. 23/6 joins a growing roster of online and television networks and series dedicated to taking normal (and highly predictable) news and turning a spin on those stories to keep the bay of reality, well, away from the mind of the normal consumer. At least, that's my two cents here.
I especially like 23/6's planned "Monolog-o-tron," which will be an online tool for generating your own talk show using drop-down menus on a website. That's a shot at Letterman and Leno and my guess is that it won't be the last one taken. With a whole new generation taking to the web for news and satire instead of played late-night shows, this could very well be another great hit for Barry Diller's IAC.
Despite filling five hours of our weeks with what some (...innocently drums fingers ...) consider to be softball questions and hacky jokes, Jay Leno has managed to remain the king of the late-night time slot, consistently banking the best ratings for the hour following the evening news.
Three years ago, Leno, who took over the hosting chair from the beloved Johnny Carson in 1992, told General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)'s NBC Networks that he would be retiring in 2009. At that point, NBC gave the nod to auburn-haired late-late-night funnyman Conan O'Brian. But as the swan song grows closer, the Los Angeles Times reports, Leno may be having misgivings about this plan.
Leno is reportedly a workaholic and will only be 59 when 2009 rolls around. Johnny Carson was 74 when he stepped down from the gig. NBC clearly wouldn't mind keeping their number-one guy on the payroll, and if he wants to keep working, they definitely want him in their employ rather than with the competition. Leno has a non-compete clause to keep him off the air for six months after leaving NBC, but what's six months out of a 20-year career?
When I read this lead in an article in the New York Times, I couldn't believe my eyes: "When a group of economists argued recently that Americans might be saving too much for retirement ...." This reminds me of something that I saw in a book of highlights from the Headlines segment of Jay Leno's Tonight Show, where readers send in funny headlines from newspapers and advertisements. The headline read: "Postal Service looks to deliver mail more slowly."
If Americans are indeed saving more than is necessary for retirement, is that really a big problem? With the national savings rate below zero, how can less than nothing be more than enough? According to a survey released by Fidelity Investments (in rebuttal to the argument), the average American saves only enough money to generate 58% of their pre-retirement income, less than the 65% that the economists said was a realistic estimate of how much would be required.
So who are we to believe? I would advise people to err on the side of saving more than is enough. It's kind of like a friend I have who claims to be atheist but goes to church regularly: "If I'm right and there is no god, I'll have wasted a couple hours of my time each week. If I'm wrong and don't go to church, I'll be in deep (trouble)."
One sentence that no one will ever utter during their retirement: "Ugh, I just saved too much money for this. I have no idea what to do."
Broadcastingcable.com is reporting that Jimmy Fallon, who because famous as a member of the Saturday Night Live troupe, may be in line to replace Conan O'Brien when (and if) Conan takes over General Electric Company's (NYSE:GE) NBC's Tonight show in 2009.
Fallon pulled time behind the desk during the faux-news segment on SNL. He has also launched a film career, with parts in Taxi, Fever Pitch, and I Dream of Jeannie. O'Brien's 12:30 p.m. slot on NBC will be available after the already announced transition takes place when Jay Leno retires in 2009.
However, keep in mind this is television, where nothing is set in stone except that rating determines everything. If I were O'Brien, I wouldn't order any business cards until I saw the graphics hit the screen with my name on it.
What works for a smaller audience at 12:30 p.m. may not transition to the 11:30 slot. The audience is notably fickle; ask Magic Johnson and Arsenio Hall. Despite their commitment, NBC would be foolish to not consider other candidates that may bring more potential for audience (and ad sales). My dark horse candidate? Jon Stewart. Great audience appeal, smaller network, ergo smaller salary. He might be interested in advancement. Or Ellen Degeneres, who has proven herself in her daytime gig.
In the next two years, other stars will also wax and wane, and the other networks won't sit quietly by. When Leno signs off, look for ABC, CBS and perhaps Fox to go after his audience like dogs to a pork chop.
Conan might note that no Vice-president has successfully run for President in over 40 years.
GE ended the day at $32.34, down 35 cents, just over a percent. It looks like this will be another week in the $30s for GE, much to investor's frustration. Even analysts and portfolio managers admit the performance is puzzling, like Eric Schoenstein of the Jensen Fund in this StreetWatch video interview. While talking about a general blue cap turnaround that is expected, Eric mentions that though they like GE, the static stock growth is a bit puzzling. Scrub forward to the two minute 48 second mark to hear more about what they have to say about GE.
Meanwhile, NBC/Universal, the one consistently underperforming area of GE, has two movies in the top ten earners list right now. You, Me, and Dupree and Miami Vice are holding their own. A slightly hopeful sign for the division. And with more buzz around the new Fall season of NBC, maybe Jay Leno and Conan O'Brian will no longer have a reason to stop making fun of their own network's ratings. Maybe.