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Does Kindle make Amazon a good investment idea?

There's been some news on the Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Kindle, the company's electronic substitute for real paper books. According to this source, everything is coming along fine for the product from a statistical point of view. An estimate of Kindle sales from Citigroup Global Markets puts the number of units sold last year at 500,000. By 2010, it's said that the Kindle may lead to $1.2 billion of derivative sales. I was surprised to learn that this sales number would possibly represent 4% of Amazon's top line.

Continue reading Does Kindle make Amazon a good investment idea?

Amazon had a great Q4, but don't buy just yet

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), whose competitors include eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), is up today after the online retailer released its Q4 numbers yesterday after the bell. And when I say "up", I mean amazingly up. The stock was in the green by well over 17% at the time of this writing. According to Stocks in the News, both revenue and net income beat Wall Street's view. Sales rose 18%, and net income came in at $0.52 per share versus expectations of $0.39 per share. I'd say that was a little better than consensus, wouldn't you?

Continue reading Amazon had a great Q4, but don't buy just yet

Money losers of 2008: Billionaires who lost billions this year

This post is part of our feature on Money Losers of 2008. See all 20.

There's no doubt about it -- times are tough. People are struggling to find work and to pay the bills as the value of their homes and savings dwindle. The poor get poorer, and the rich get richer.

Or do they? It's all relative, of course, but world's billionaires have been taking some big hits too. We take a look at Sheldon Adelson, Kirk Kerkorian, and Lakshmi Mittal in their own separate posts, but here are some other billionaires who have lost billions this year (courtesy of Forbes and Business Sheet).

  • Brothers Anil and Mukesh Ambani of India's private conglomerate Reliance lost $32.5 billion and $28.2 billion, respectively.
  • Warren Buffett, the Sage of Omaha, lost $16.5 billion. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) are down about 32% since the beginning of the year.
  • Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen lost $12.3 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, while CEO Steve Balmer lost $6.5 billion. Shares of Microsoft are down 46% since the beginning of the year.
  • Larry Page and Sergey Brin, cofounders of Google Inc. (NYSE: GOOG), lost $11.9 billion and $11.7 billion, respectively, and CEO Eric Schmidt lost $3.8 billion. The share price of Google has fallen 55% since the beginning of the year.
  • Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), lost $8.2 billion. Shares of Oracle are down 21% since the beginning of the year.
  • Media maven Sumner Redstone lost $7.2 billion. Shares of his private investment firm National Amusements fell 70% this year.

Continue reading Money losers of 2008: Billionaires who lost billions this year

Best & Worst in Money 2008: Best CEO for troubled times

This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.

In these troubled times, there is only one CEO who operates with the best interests of investors in mind. Of course, that executive is Warren Buffett.

As Investopedia notes, investing $100,000 with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) in 1965, the year Buffett took over the company would be worth nearly $30 million by 2005. "By comparison, $10,000 in the S&P 500 would have grown to only about $500,000," the site notes as if that return was just awful.

Buffett's successes are legendary. His missteps are few. The Oracle of Omaha is on the right side of many issues of interest to investors.

Continue reading Best & Worst in Money 2008: Best CEO for troubled times

Cheap Stocks: Amazon.com

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

In my opinion, Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) has two major fundamental advantages. First, we're talking about a dot-com company that survived the dot-com bubble. This is an impressive achievement, on par with Julia Louis-Dreyfus finding success with a second sitcom after Seinfeld.

Second, I caught a bit of Oprah recently when I was home sick with a head cold. Her special guest was Amazon chief Jeff Bezos, and the topic of the day was how much Oprah loves the Kindle reader. Not only did everybody in the audience get a free Kindle, but Ms. Winfrey actually bellowed, "Kiiiinnnnnnnnn-dullllllll!" ("Thank you," stammered Bezos, no doubt overwhelmed by her all-powerful stamp of approval.)

Oprah aside, the key to Amazon's survival so far has been its willingness to adapt. What was once a humble online bookstore is now the internet equivalent of a general store -- on today's Amazon.com, you can pick up a new motherboard for your PC, a pair of winter boots, and a box of popcorn in one fell swoop. The company offers a slew of familiar brand names, which should make the site a popular stop for holiday shopping.

Continue reading Cheap Stocks: Amazon.com

Amazon (AMZN) hits new low on bleak holiday outlook

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) hit a 52-week low yesterday, a week after the online retailer saw a previous year low. Worries about this year's retail holiday shopping season have investors fleeing like rats on a sinking ship. Analyst Matt Nemer with Thomas Weisel lowered his Q4 earnings estimate on the retailer from $0.44 per share to $0.39 per share, while Barclays analyst Douglas Ammuth indicated that Q4 profit margins could shrink as price cuts go into effect.

Still, Amazon.com has one of the best chances to weather the consumer spending slowdown starting, well, yesterday. Almost everyone I know is already shopping for the holidays, and many are shopping online and are definitely searching out bargains. While the management of companies that run shopping malls in my area are considering bankruptcy, standalone retailers with strong brands and good customer perception appear to be doing fine. I'm left wondering how long that can last, though.

Amazon's shares have come back from the stratosphere and have settled into what could be considered a normal range. The company is making money, making profits and is very strong in almost every area in which it operates. It's the world's largest online-only retailer and unlike many other retailers, I've never seen the company say that it makes a huge percentage of its profit in the end-of-year holiday shopping season. All things considered, my guess is that Amazon.com will do fine this season. Not stupendous, but fine.

Amazon's Kindle continues to attract book titles

I've got to be honest, I wasn't so sure that Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) Kindle device would be a hit. But, according to BusinessWeek, it seems like it's doing okay. Kindle, which is a reading platform for e-books, actually experienced sell-outs after it was launched last fall. And now, CBS's (NYSE: CBS) Simon & Schuster has upped its support of the platform by increasing the number of titles from its portfolio to be sold on Kindle. How does 5,000 more titles from Simon & Schuster sound?

Just great, I'm sure Jeff Bezos would say. And who can blame him? It looks like people are really taking to Kindle, and although I don't think reading books for pleasure in such an electronic manner will ever come remotely close to challenging printed tomes, I know it's still important for Amazon to have a strategy in this arena. And like I mentioned at the beginning, the fact that Kindle seems to have had a strong start is very impressive.

Continue reading Amazon's Kindle continues to attract book titles

Amazon outlook disappoints investors

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) said first quarter profit rose 30% driven by strong sales across the board. .

Amazon shares slumped in after-hours trading after the company lowered its operating income forecast for the year.

Net income at Amazon rose to $143 million in the first quarter, or 34 cents per share, from $111 million, 26 cents, a year earlier. Sales increased 37% to $4.13 billion. The results beat the views of Wall Street analysts who had expected a profit of 32 cents on revenue of $4.08 billion.

Amazon expects second quarter sales to be between $3.875 billion and $4.075 billion on operating income of $120 million and $160 million. For the year, the Seattle-based e-tailer is forecasting net sales of $19.1 billion to $20 billion on operating income of between $740 million and $940 million. Earlier this year, the company had forecasted operating income of $985 million, according to Bloomberg News. The operating income guidance was wide enough to drive an 18-wheeler through.

Once again, Amazon has left investors up the creek -- or river -- without a paddle.

Amazon insiders selling and stock buybacks too?

Has anybody else out there noticed that Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), recently sold $135 million of his stock? Not to worry, these are his regular 10b5 plan sales that are pre-scheduled with the SEC. Just smart diversification I suppose.

Normally, I would think this is not that big a deal since he owns billions of dollars of the stock as the single largest shareholder. If I were him, I would be selling too, in particular because I have felt that AMZN is overpriced for quite a while. (See Serious Money: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, ISRG -- at what Price?)

The stock jumped early this month when Amazon announced the retirement of debt and a stock buyback plan over the next two years. This was a temporary affect; the stock has been trading in the low $70's recently, give or take a few bucks.

But what strikes me as curious is that this buyback plan is announced while insider selling has rarely been higher! The buyback and Bezos selling inspired me to look at the latest insider trading. When I checked it out I discovered company directors, officers, and "affiliated persons" have all been sellers and only sellers. To be fair some of the sales are listed as 'planned'; however, the plan does not have to be filed very far in advance, so I am not impressed by this.

Continue reading Amazon insiders selling and stock buybacks too?

Amazon posts strong quarter (update)

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) today posted a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter and gave bullish guidance for sales. However, the company's forecast for full-year operating income of $785 million and $985 million, below the Bloomberg forecast of $1.18 billion. Shares of the largest Internet retailer, which doubled last year, soared fell in after-hours trading.

Net income increased 112% to $207 million, or 48 cents per share, compared with $98 million, or 23 cents, a year earlier. Sales rose 42% to $5.67 billion in the fourth quarter, helped by strong growth outside the U.S. Analysts had expected profit of 48 cents on revenue of $5.37 billion.

"In our view, these unusual financial results are driven by one thing: continuously improving the customer experience," said Chief Executive Jeff Bezos in the earnings release.

The Seattle-based company issued guidance for revenue in the first quarter of between $3.95 billion and $4.15 billion with operating income of between $155 million to $200 million. For the year, Amazon expects sales of $18.75 billion to $19.75 billion with operating income of $785 million to $985 million. Analysts are expecting quarterly sales of $3.92 billion and $14.52 billion for the year.

Option update 10-17-07: Amazon volatility of 67 suggests large price movement ahead

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) will report 3rd quarter earnings per share (EPS) on October 23rd:


AMZN November option implied volatility of 67 is above its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting that traders are positioning themselves for larger price risks.

SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI), as of June 29th, STI had total assets of $180.3 billion and total deposits of $122.9 billion:

STI will report EPS on October 18th. STI call option volume of 3,015 contracts compares to put volume of 3,223 contracts. STI November option implied volatility of 32 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.


Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Who owns Amazon.com - really?

Two days ago I posted Amazon - everyone gets it but me wondering who the heck was driving the Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) share price up to such ridiculous levels. Then I spoke with a fund manager at a large investment company and he reminded me that Amazon shares were very tightly held by a few entities. So I looked it up on AOL Money & Finance and found the following.

  • Jeff Bezos still holds 24% of the stock
  • Legg Mason Capital Management, Inc. holds 20.25%
  • T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. holds 7.5%
  • TCW Asset Management Company holds 5.5%
  • ClearBridge Advisors 5.25%.

You can see that the top five shareholders control 62.5% of the stock. Looking further I found that the top ten shareholders own about 75% of the outstanding shares. This does not account for other insiders besides Bezos who hold 3% to 5% of the shares. If 15% to 18% of the shares are sold short that does not leave much play in the market and it allows for the potential manipulation of the shares.

Continue reading Who owns Amazon.com - really?

Amazon's Bezos paid only $1.28 million in 2006

In a time of over-the-top CEO compensation packages at under-performing companies, it was rather a breath of fresh air to see that Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) Chairman and Chief Executive Jeff Bezos receive a "normal" compensation package for 2006. The founder of the world's largest e-tailer received $1.28 million in 2006, including all forms of compensation. To me, this sounds rather low and entirely reasonable for a position as lofty as where Bezos sits.

While Bezos is not hurting for net worth with respect to his AMZN holdings, the CEO was paid a measly $81,840 salary in 2006, and was awarded extra compensation for "security services" from the company (not clear what that is exactly, though). Bezos took home no bonus and no stock or option awards last year either, so the $1.28 million was total compensation from the company he founded.

Amazon's executive salaries "are designed to be significantly less than those paid by similarly situated companies," according to statements from the company. I would say so -- $1.28 million is rather paltry compared to the annual pay from other executive positions, even at companies that report horrid results and return no value to shareholders. I continue to be confused as to why investors don't scream when executives take home huge compensation packages as stock prices tank and company performance goes south. Let's hope more CEOs follow Bezos' lead.

Sunday Funnies: Amazon Price-to-Book over 41, WOW!

Yes, you read that correctly Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) on the day of it's surprising earning report had a trailing Price-to-Book ratio over 41 -- totally nuts! What is it today after the stock run-up and the the inclusion of the positive news, 34.86 -- still nuts! For comparison I would point out that is over five times that of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which is 8.46. I have spoken to many wise investors and business sleuths about this and not found a single explanation -- never mind a good explanation.

After I wrote about not understanding the Amazon flurry of buying, Amazon.com: Everything but the kitchen sink...and the fundamentals, one reader responded quite succinctly in Amazon reflections: the short answer, which supported my premise that perhaps the share price was kind of lofty. And after Amazon's great earnings report and all the hype it has a profit margin of 1.77%, about the same as your average supermarket.

My colleague Georges Yared has done a good job of explaining some reasons for the buying of AMZN shares following the earnings report in Amazon.com: The conundrum, but no one can explain the metrics. All I can say is, Jeff Bezos is a great salesman, and P.T. Barnum would be jealous.

If you are like me you and prefer a P/B closer to 1.0, read my Chasing Value or Serious Money posts.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Apple, Amazon, GE, and Microsoft: the role of expectations

By most accounts, shares in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) should have gone well above $100 this week and held there. Instead, the stock trades little better than it did after its last earnings announcement in January.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) certainly reported a good quarter, but for its shares to be 70% higher than they were a month ago seems extreme. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) did well this earnings season and neither has seen anywhere near this kind of market performance.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has traded down most of the year. Observers would attribute that to comments that CEO Steve Ballmer made about expectations for the company's new Vista OS being too high. As it turned out, the expectations were fine. The market overreacted to Ballmer. The stock moved up on good Vista news.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is another company with strong earnings, but the stock has moved down over the last three months. That is until a Citigroup analyst raised a very old idea of breaking the company into pieces. In a day, the stock recovered all it had lost in the previous 90 days.

There is a theme in the trading of these four stocks. It's so simple as to be childish. Low expectations can give way to big yields. High expectations are hard to top. The markets expected the world of Apple. Apple delivered. The market saw no benefit in driving the stock much higher. The Mac and iPod did just great. The iPhone is on the way. No news.

Amazon has been pounded by Wall Street and the press for the last two years. The company lacks focus. It's in too many businesses. Jeff Bezos, the founder and CEO, spends too much money on marketing and building out the company's technology platform. That hurts margins. Of course, all of that is true until the day it isn't. That day fell in the middle of last week.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:25 AM

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