Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), whose competitors include eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), is up today after the online retailer released its Q4 numbers yesterday after the bell. And when I say "up", I mean amazingly up. The stock was in the green by well over 17% at the time of this writing. According to Stocks in the News, both revenue and net income beat Wall Street's view. Sales rose 18%, and net income came in at $0.52 per share versus expectations of $0.39 per share. I'd say that was a little better than consensus, wouldn't you?JeffBezos posts
FeedAmazon had a great Q4, but don't buy just yet
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), whose competitors include eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), is up today after the online retailer released its Q4 numbers yesterday after the bell. And when I say "up", I mean amazingly up. The stock was in the green by well over 17% at the time of this writing. According to Stocks in the News, both revenue and net income beat Wall Street's view. Sales rose 18%, and net income came in at $0.52 per share versus expectations of $0.39 per share. I'd say that was a little better than consensus, wouldn't you?Continue reading Amazon had a great Q4, but don't buy just yet
Amazon (AMZN) hits new low on bleak holiday outlook
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) hit a 52-week low yesterday, a week after the online retailer saw a previous year low. Worries about this year's retail holiday shopping season have investors fleeing like rats on a sinking ship. Analyst Matt Nemer with Thomas Weisel lowered his Q4 earnings estimate on the retailer from $0.44 per share to $0.39 per share, while Barclays analyst Douglas Ammuth indicated that Q4 profit margins could shrink as price cuts go into effect.Still, Amazon.com has one of the best chances to weather the consumer spending slowdown starting, well, yesterday. Almost everyone I know is already shopping for the holidays, and many are shopping online and are definitely searching out bargains. While the management of companies that run shopping malls in my area are considering bankruptcy, standalone retailers with strong brands and good customer perception appear to be doing fine. I'm left wondering how long that can last, though.
Amazon's shares have come back from the stratosphere and have settled into what could be considered a normal range. The company is making money, making profits and is very strong in almost every area in which it operates. It's the world's largest online-only retailer and unlike many other retailers, I've never seen the company say that it makes a huge percentage of its profit in the end-of-year holiday shopping season. All things considered, my guess is that Amazon.com will do fine this season. Not stupendous, but fine.
Amazon's Kindle continues to attract book titles
I've got to be honest, I wasn't so sure that Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) Kindle device would be a hit. But, according to BusinessWeek, it seems like it's doing okay. Kindle, which is a reading platform for e-books, actually experienced sell-outs after it was launched last fall. And now, CBS's (NYSE: CBS) Simon & Schuster has upped its support of the platform by increasing the number of titles from its portfolio to be sold on Kindle. How does 5,000 more titles from Simon & Schuster sound?
Just great, I'm sure Jeff Bezos would say. And who can blame him? It looks like people are really taking to Kindle, and although I don't think reading books for pleasure in such an electronic manner will ever come remotely close to challenging printed tomes, I know it's still important for Amazon to have a strategy in this arena. And like I mentioned at the beginning, the fact that Kindle seems to have had a strong start is very impressive.
Continue reading Amazon's Kindle continues to attract book titles
Amazon outlook disappoints investors
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) said first quarter profit rose 30% driven by strong sales across the board. .Amazon shares slumped in after-hours trading after the company lowered its operating income forecast for the year.
Net income at Amazon rose to $143 million in the first quarter, or 34 cents per share, from $111 million, 26 cents, a year earlier. Sales increased 37% to $4.13 billion. The results beat the views of Wall Street analysts who had expected a profit of 32 cents on revenue of $4.08 billion.
Amazon expects second quarter sales to be between $3.875 billion and $4.075 billion on operating income of $120 million and $160 million. For the year, the Seattle-based e-tailer is forecasting net sales of $19.1 billion to $20 billion on operating income of between $740 million and $940 million. Earlier this year, the company had forecasted operating income of $985 million, according to Bloomberg News. The operating income guidance was wide enough to drive an 18-wheeler through.
Once again, Amazon has left investors up the creek -- or river -- without a paddle.
Amazon insiders selling and stock buybacks too?
Has anybody else out there noticed that Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), recently sold $135 million of his stock? Not to worry, these are his regular 10b5 plan sales that are pre-scheduled with the SEC. Just smart diversification I suppose.
Normally, I would think this is not that big a deal since he owns billions of dollars of the stock as the single largest shareholder. If I were him, I would be selling too, in particular because I have felt that AMZN is overpriced for quite a while. (See Serious Money: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, ISRG -- at what Price?)
The stock jumped early this month when Amazon announced the retirement of debt and a stock buyback plan over the next two years. This was a temporary affect; the stock has been trading in the low $70's recently, give or take a few bucks.
But what strikes me as curious is that this buyback plan is announced while insider selling has rarely been higher! The buyback and Bezos selling inspired me to look at the latest insider trading. When I checked it out I discovered company directors, officers, and "affiliated persons" have all been sellers and only sellers. To be fair some of the sales are listed as 'planned'; however, the plan does not have to be filed very far in advance, so I am not impressed by this.
Continue reading Amazon insiders selling and stock buybacks too?
Amazon posts strong quarter (update)
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) today posted a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter and gave bullish guidance for sales. However, the company's forecast for full-year operating income of $785 million and $985 million, below the Bloomberg forecast of $1.18 billion.Net income increased 112% to $207 million, or 48 cents per share, compared with $98 million, or 23 cents, a year earlier. Sales rose 42% to $5.67 billion in the fourth quarter, helped by strong growth outside the U.S. Analysts had expected profit of 48 cents on revenue of $5.37 billion.
"In our view, these unusual financial results are driven by one thing: continuously improving the customer experience," said Chief Executive Jeff Bezos in the earnings release.
The Seattle-based company issued guidance for revenue in the first quarter of between $3.95 billion and $4.15 billion with operating income of between $155 million to $200 million. For the year, Amazon expects sales of $18.75 billion to $19.75 billion with operating income of $785 million to $985 million. Analysts are expecting quarterly sales of $3.92 billion and $14.52 billion for the year.
Option update 10-17-07: Amazon volatility of 67 suggests large price movement ahead
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) will report 3rd quarter earnings per share (EPS) on October 23rd:
AMZN November option implied volatility of 67 is above its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting that traders are positioning themselves for larger price risks.
SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI), as of June 29th, STI had total assets of $180.3 billion and total deposits of $122.9 billion:
STI will report EPS on October 18th. STI call option volume of 3,015 contracts compares to put volume of 3,223 contracts. STI November option implied volatility of 32 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Who owns Amazon.com - really?
Two days ago I posted Amazon - everyone gets it but me wondering who the heck was driving the Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) share price up to such ridiculous levels. Then I spoke with a fund manager at a large investment company and he reminded me that Amazon shares were very tightly held by a few entities. So I looked it up on AOL Money & Finance and found the following.
- Jeff Bezos still holds 24% of the stock
- Legg Mason Capital Management, Inc. holds 20.25%
- T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. holds 7.5%
- TCW Asset Management Company holds 5.5%
- ClearBridge Advisors 5.25%.
You can see that the top five shareholders control 62.5% of the stock. Looking further I found that the top ten shareholders own about 75% of the outstanding shares. This does not account for other insiders besides Bezos who hold 3% to 5% of the shares. If 15% to 18% of the shares are sold short that does not leave much play in the market and it allows for the potential manipulation of the shares.
Amazon's Bezos paid only $1.28 million in 2006
In a time of over-the-top CEO compensation packages at under-performing companies, it was rather a breath of fresh air to see that Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) Chairman and Chief Executive Jeff Bezos receive a "normal" compensation package for 2006. The founder of the world's largest e-tailer received $1.28 million in 2006, including all forms of compensation. To me, this sounds rather low and entirely reasonable for a position as lofty as where Bezos sits.While Bezos is not hurting for net worth with respect to his AMZN holdings, the CEO was paid a measly $81,840 salary in 2006, and was awarded extra compensation for "security services" from the company (not clear what that is exactly, though). Bezos took home no bonus and no stock or option awards last year either, so the $1.28 million was total compensation from the company he founded.
Amazon's executive salaries "are designed to be significantly less than those paid by similarly situated companies," according to statements from the company. I would say so -- $1.28 million is rather paltry compared to the annual pay from other executive positions, even at companies that report horrid results and return no value to shareholders. I continue to be confused as to why investors don't scream when executives take home huge compensation packages as stock prices tank and company performance goes south. Let's hope more CEOs follow Bezos' lead.
Voice-activated search: From ChaCha to Microsoft
ChaCha will be available at a toll-free number, with easy searches handled by voice-recognition software and more complicated ones going to ChaCha guides. The guides will enter the results of their searches into a voice-recognition database for future users. While users wait for the guide, voice ads will be played. According to Jones, cell-phone providers will replace 411 services with ChaCha by 2010.
While Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) is the obvious name each time Internet search is mentioned, ChaCha may actually see competition from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT). After a few days of rumors, Microsoft said it will buy Tellme Networks Inc., a provider of voice-enabled mobile search, directory assistance and computerized, speech-driven customer service hotlines.
Microsoft's plans for Tellme's technology are vast and not limited to mobile search but to applications for the home (operating the TV for example), car (getting directions for the nearest gas station) and Microsoft Office applications as well. If one day this technology works smoothly, Google and others would have some catching up to do.
I've always seen voice-activation as the natural progress of current technology and even wondered in the past if Microsoft wouldn't indeed be the one to bring it to successful fruition. Today, we are one step closer.
"Save."
"Publish."
10 CEO's That Need To Go: 3 Down, 7 Remain
Dell's (NASDAQ:DELL) Kevin Rollins.
STATUS: FIRED! His name will be forgotten by Wall Street most likely and will be referred to as 'That guy that took Dell down.'
Gap Inc.'s (NYSE:GPS) Paul Pressler.
STATUS: KIA! He's done and he'll have to go in for that old Japanese executive retraining boot camp before anyone speaks to him again.
The Home Depot's(NYSE:HD) Bob Nardelli.
STATUS: FIRED! But beware, he took a huge exit-payout and only has a 1-year non-compete. He'll probably end up in private equity and his name won't quietly disappear.
Amazon.com's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Jeff Bezos. He doesn't need to go away entirely! He just needs to do a partial title change. But will anyone inside the company tell the emperor he is wearing no space suit?
STATUS: Earnings are today, but either way the company could use an add-on here. I like Bezos and this will give him the latitude needed.
Citigroup's (NYSE:C) Chuck Prince. The prince calls for Draconian measures, and maybe the prince didn't mean just THIS Prince.
STATUS: Everyone has told this prince he isn't wearing clothes and he keeps ruling and ignores this. Sally Krawchek wasn't the problem. The stock is up in hopes that he'll leave and that new management can run the beast better.
Eastman Kodak's (NYSE:EK) Antonio Perez. Maybe he's nice, but for heaven's sake get the restructuring over with and get some mojo. Bring in a digital media leader.
STATUS: The earnings have turned, but the long painful restructuring continues and the last medical imaging sale funds might not be used aggressively enough. EK would still be better under a different digital leader.
Qualcomm Inc.'s (NASDAQ:QCOM) Paul Jacobs. He isn't being sent home yet, but his dad's shoes are proving very hard to fill.
STATUS: The note here is still in the pending file and he may survive if he can keep the stock from falling and if he can keep the company's patents and contracts alive.
Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) & XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:XMSR). It is a dead heat in the race, and if two companies need to merge, it's these two. There can be only one.
STATUS: Still pending, still a tie! They should just merge and get it over with. A merger wouldn't be great for consumers and competition, but would be best for investors.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s(NYSE:WMT) Lee Scott. The company is struggling under its own weight, and it needs some good PR. Getting rid of the Darth Vader of Corporate America and bringing in someone fun and likeable would be the best start.
STATUS: He's still gotta go. If he is still there at the end of this year it is because he intimidated every internal external challenger. Darth Vader wasn't a hero until the last 10 minutes of the original series after almost 6 hours of being the bad guy. Lee Scott could become a good guy if he would just leave.
Yahoo!'s (NASDAQ:YHOO) Terry Semel. Yes, when you see him leave or forced out, Yahoo! holders should be happy.
STATUS: Panama may save him, but Wall Street would rather see Semel leave. Sue Decker is better suited for the role.
A lot of these may be controversial, and there are plenty of other companies that might benefit from a new CEO. None of these attacks are personal and these are merely based on observation and analysis. The list could probably be 100 CEO's long.
Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St. LLC; He does not hold securities in the companies he covers. He also not been compensated to represent any of these companies in any light.
Amazon.com's Bezos waxes about utilities
In the early days of Amazon.com, the thought was that this company had a limited future. After all, how many books can you really sell?
Well, of course, the founder of the company, Jeff Bezos, was thinking on a much grander scale; that is, his company would be the dominant player in ecommerce. And he has achieved that. The problem is that the company's financials are still lackluster. While other dot-coms, like eBay and Google, post strong profits, Amazon.com really looks like an a brick-in-mortar play.
However, Bezos is now moving into other areas. For example, he is allowing the world to use the company's sophisticated infrastructure, such as for storage, fulfillment and so on. In fact, the company has some big-time clients for these services, such as Microsoft. In fact, today, at the Web 2.0 Conference, Bezos made it clear that this utility strategy is a big priority.
True, the strategy does have some allure. No doubt, much of the Amazon.com infrastructure is underutilized (because the business is seasonal and subject to occasional spikes). What's more, there are many companies that would prefer to outsource certain operations. Actually, this is particularly the case for upstart Web 2.0 companies, which can avoid heavy costs.
But, the fear is that Amazon.com could be losing its focus. Its core business of ecommerce is coming under attack from players like Google as well as traditional retailers such as Wal-Mart.
Also, building the systems to deliver these utilities is not cheap. Amazon.com has spent $650 million in technologies in 2006. What's more, it will need to spend marketing dollars to find B2B customers. There are also dollars needed to keep the customers.
So, while this may be great for Web 2.0 companies, the pay-off for Amazon.com does look fuzzy.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.
Is Amazon (still) buying revenue?
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) has recently started slowing down technology spending and trying to "recruit returns" on that investment. At the same time, the world's largest online retailer has started increasing spending on marketing, a move which is raising eyebrows among investors, especially since Amazon's margins aren't growing like dandelions in spring.Does Amazon.com constantly need to fuel marketing and advertising costs to spur growth that investors need to see consistently from the company? That's the sentiment going around these days, although it's just sentiment. But when you see numbers like marketing spending rising 50% over the prior year in Amazon's recently reported third quarter, red, green and blue flags start going up. A gain like this -- which outpaces even sales growth that gained 25% in the same period -- sends a sign; of what I am not sure.
Amazon.com has now been accused by some market pundits of "buying revenue," or increasing marketing expenditures to see short-term revenue gains -- which in turn, please investors who myopically always look for "the next quarter's numbers" like that's all that counts. Hogwash, but that's the market for you -- obsessive compulsive disorder when it comes to the next three months' worth of results.
(Disclosure: I own AMZN shares as of 11-8-06.)
Who's supporting Amazon?
How in the world is Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) holding on to its stock price? Who is supporting these outrageous figures? Why is there no profit taking? Do investors think it's going higher still, without the profits to back it up? Are investors buying CEO Jeffrey P. Bezos's mystic ethos?
For starters the shares are controlled by surprisingly few entities. If I am reading the data correctly, Jeffrey Bezos owns 101,198,359 shares as of October 27, 2006. Legg Mason Inc. holds another 98,122,167shares and TCW, Inc. controls another 26,971,084 shares, both as of June 30, 2006. That means that approximately 60% of the shares are held by three entities.
Looking still further, insiders control 25.22% of the outstanding shares and institutions control 73.20% for a total of 98.42% which means individual investors own only 1.58% of the outstanding shares. For comparison Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) insiders and Institutions control 87.45%, leaving individual investors with 12.55%. Seems the small guy remains at the mercy of the big players and will likely be left without a seat when the music stops. With a price to earnings ratio hovering between 54 and 56 lately there is not much room for error (actually none) so the the true believers better be right.
Am I the only one bewildered at Amazon's stock price. I don't think so.
Another concern brewing: Are increasing marketing expenditures cutting into profits?
The latest from Business Week provides some insight into Jeff Bezos's gamble on becoming a platform player. Just because Bezos chooses to gamble does not mean the individual investor should. After all, he is gambling with your money -- especially when you consider the inflated stock price.
Someone once told me about a person new to the investment world who got a hot tip on a stock that was trading at a good price with strong market possibilities. He asked his broker to buy 500 shares. The stock went up, so he bought another 500 shares. It continued to rise in price and he felt he had really got a good tip and wanted to take full advantage of it before it made a major move so he bought 4,000 more shares. Sure enough the stock popped the very next day. His confidence beaming, he called his broker to buy another 5,000 shares -- doubling his position. His broker tried to discourage him telling him there were no sure things but he insisted and his broker reluctantly increased his position to 10,000 shares. By the end of the week he was up 200%. Not wanting to let his greed get the best of him he decided he had made enough so he called his broker and asked him to sell out his position. The broker replied, "to whom? You're the only one buying."
If so many Amazon shares are in the hands of Legg Mason and it decides to take some profits, who will they sell to? Jeff Bezos has often proven to be insightful and inspirational, but I would keep my eye on a seat just in case that music stops.
Interested in reading more? Check out my other posts for Bloggingstocks here.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an architecture & planning firm.
Can Amazon mind the store?
Amazon CEO Bezos (who in this man's opinion strikes an uncanny resemblance to actor Kevin Spacey) has often been misunderstood by the marketplace. After all, he guided the company through the dot-com mess five years ago and the company became profitable after years of waiting almost to the quarter which Bezos predicted. Can he see the future?
Soon Amazon will be selling computer power and storage services as commodities for small businesses, in addition to its gargantuan online retail operation that is the largest in the world. While Amazon is in the business of "managing complexity," just how far can this company stretch itself as it sells almost everything under the sun while providing logistics infrastructure for other business enterprises?
Perhaps Bezos is creating the next competitor for his own company. He doesn't seem to care, as if to say "bring it on." There's a madman at work here, but he's got an impressive track record, unlike many analysts, and of course the world will be watching. Amazon, in my opinion, is trying to become as ubiquitous as Google, but in its own way. We'll see if it gets there.
(Disclosure: I own AMZN shares as of 11-6-06)



