Armed with wit and logic, investment legend Jim Rogers made the case on Bloomberg TV that the United States government's bailouts of failed companies may thrust the global economy into a depression.
"The U.S. is taking assets from competent people and giving them to incompetent people. That's bad economics."
Rogers argued that American International Group (NYSE: AIG) should have been allowed to descend into bankruptcy, and he feels the same about similarly situated businesses. It just doesn't make sense to divert money from healthy, prudently-managed companies and plow it into debt-burdened companies that are being run badly at best and criminally at worst.
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Continue reading Jim Rogers says bailouts run risk of depression
Jim Rogers calls the United Kingdom 'finished'
Macroeconomic guru Jim Rogers has a message for investors: The United Kingdom is finished.Bloomberg quotes the bow tie-clad forecaster as saying that he "would urge you to sell any sterling you might have. It's finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K."
But England isn't the only country Rogers is trashing. Reuters reports that Rogers is accusing the United States of a systematic effort to devalue the dollar by "turning on the printing presses." It's hard to argue with that and he went on to say that "The idea that you can fix a period of excess borrowing and excess consumption by more borrowing and more consumption to me is just ludicrous."
He reiterated his bullishness on China's long-term future even though that market has been hammered of late.
Regardless of whether you buy into his investment theses, it's hard to argue with his logic that borrowing and consumption will not lead out of a nightmare created by borrowing and consumption.
Jim Rogers warns of hyper-inflation
"In a period like this, the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things where the fundamentals have not been impaired." Such are the words of investment guru Jim Rogers.
In a quick yet effective interview with CNBC, Jim Rogers laid out his concerns about the way in which boiling financial troubles are being handled. Rogers lays responsibility directly at the feet of Ben Bernanke and crew, with a side plate of crow for some of the biggest Wall Street talking heads. Rogers warns that the practice of throwing cash at this problem, with the intention of providing liquidity from the top down, is an unquestionable recipe for inflationary disaster. I would hasten to agree with him.
Jim Rogers indicates his opinion that this entire economic disaster needs to be allowed to self adjust. In the mean time, he counsels investors to be carefully placing their money in positions which, while possibly being liquidated, remain fundamentally sound. He points at commodities, which are physical retainers of true value, as instruments of some protection. He does indicate though, that he has taken some losses in commodities. It is my opinion that commodities are currently swinging downward on profit taking and shall soon begin another upward phase.
Rogers also gave his opinion that the G7 needs to have a beer and leave this mess alone. He sees the artificial propping up of world banks as futile. "We had the worst excesses we had in credit markets in world history. We're going to have to take some pain," Rogers told CNBC.
It's like this, folks: If you built a dam, and after the dam was full you discovered that there was no mortar between the bricks, you wouldn't build a new dam in front of the old one, hoping it would hold when everything lets go. Instead, you would warn the people in the valley about what was coming and you'd let the dam collapse. Then, you'd try to control the carnage and you'd build a better dam ---- using different contractors.
But of course, that's just my opinion.
In a quick yet effective interview with CNBC, Jim Rogers laid out his concerns about the way in which boiling financial troubles are being handled. Rogers lays responsibility directly at the feet of Ben Bernanke and crew, with a side plate of crow for some of the biggest Wall Street talking heads. Rogers warns that the practice of throwing cash at this problem, with the intention of providing liquidity from the top down, is an unquestionable recipe for inflationary disaster. I would hasten to agree with him.
Jim Rogers indicates his opinion that this entire economic disaster needs to be allowed to self adjust. In the mean time, he counsels investors to be carefully placing their money in positions which, while possibly being liquidated, remain fundamentally sound. He points at commodities, which are physical retainers of true value, as instruments of some protection. He does indicate though, that he has taken some losses in commodities. It is my opinion that commodities are currently swinging downward on profit taking and shall soon begin another upward phase.
Rogers also gave his opinion that the G7 needs to have a beer and leave this mess alone. He sees the artificial propping up of world banks as futile. "We had the worst excesses we had in credit markets in world history. We're going to have to take some pain," Rogers told CNBC.
It's like this, folks: If you built a dam, and after the dam was full you discovered that there was no mortar between the bricks, you wouldn't build a new dam in front of the old one, hoping it would hold when everything lets go. Instead, you would warn the people in the valley about what was coming and you'd let the dam collapse. Then, you'd try to control the carnage and you'd build a better dam ---- using different contractors.
But of course, that's just my opinion.
Jim Rogers talks commodities
Investors who followed the advice of Jim Rogers' book Hot Commodities cleaned up in the ensuing global bull market in commodities. Since then, Jim Rogers has become one of a handful of people that anyone who cares about commodities absolutely must listen to.
Now you can listen to him in a new interview with TechTicker.
Mr. Rogers said that a U.S. recession would have an effect on demand for "nearly everything" but said that he is still buying agriculture even though he believes the U.S. is in a recession because he views the factors that will drive agriculture higher as being largely independent of our economy.
He cautioned, however, that bull markets do not go straight up and that there will be consolidations. On oil, he declined to make a short-term prediction calling himself "the world's worst market timer." He also said that everyone will be surprised by how high oil eventually goes.
If you haven't already read his latest book A Bull in China, you ought to get on that.
Now you can listen to him in a new interview with TechTicker.
Mr. Rogers said that a U.S. recession would have an effect on demand for "nearly everything" but said that he is still buying agriculture even though he believes the U.S. is in a recession because he views the factors that will drive agriculture higher as being largely independent of our economy.
He cautioned, however, that bull markets do not go straight up and that there will be consolidations. On oil, he declined to make a short-term prediction calling himself "the world's worst market timer." He also said that everyone will be surprised by how high oil eventually goes.
If you haven't already read his latest book A Bull in China, you ought to get on that.
Jim Rogers predicts one of the worst recessions since WW II
Market maven Jim Rogers is worried -- bad news given how brilliant his bullish calls on commodities and China, and bearish calls on financials look now.
In an interview with Fortune, Rogers said that "Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I'm afraid it's going to be much worse. Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He's out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene."
He's still bullish on China -- and believes the recent correction is a good thing. He recently sold his New York property and moved his family full-time to Singapore.
I don't pay attention to many market pundits, and I don't suggest that you do so either. But Jim Rogers is an exception.
Aside from investing in China -- which most people should already be doing anyway -- there's an ETF play if you like Rogers' thinking.
The ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF is a way to short the performance of the financial stocks Rogers is so bearish on -- with 2 times the volatility. While not for the faint of heart -- a gain of 10% for the sector will send you down 20% -- it's definitely worth a look given Rogers' track record.
In an interview with Fortune, Rogers said that "Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I'm afraid it's going to be much worse. Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He's out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene."
He's still bullish on China -- and believes the recent correction is a good thing. He recently sold his New York property and moved his family full-time to Singapore.
I don't pay attention to many market pundits, and I don't suggest that you do so either. But Jim Rogers is an exception.
Aside from investing in China -- which most people should already be doing anyway -- there's an ETF play if you like Rogers' thinking.
The ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF is a way to short the performance of the financial stocks Rogers is so bearish on -- with 2 times the volatility. While not for the faint of heart -- a gain of 10% for the sector will send you down 20% -- it's definitely worth a look given Rogers' track record.
Playing the commodities boom like the pros using ETFs
In case you were too busy watching Obama win in Iowa or voyeuring in on Britney's travails, we're in the midst of what some pundits call a "supercycle" of a commodities bull market.
For more on this supercycle, I recommend reading uber-trader Jim Rogers' work on commodities. Jim was, along with George Soros, the founder of the Quantum Fund. He has been pretty accurate with his predictions regarding hard assets and the ensuing demand/supply issues that are being exacerbated by demand from India and China. There's an insightful interview with him here that's really good reading.
From the interview: "Nobody has discovered a gigantic oil field for thirty years. That's not a theory; that's a basic fact. In the meantime, demand for oil has been going up for many years. That's not a theory, either; that's a simple fact. Likewise, there has been one lead mine open in the world for the past twenty years, and the last lead smelter was built in the U.S. in 1979. I could continue: the number of acres devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 20 years.
Continue reading Playing the commodities boom like the pros using ETFs
Investor Jim Rogers sees worst recession in 'a while'
Add famed investor Jim Rogers to the list of people who think the economy is heading down the tubes.In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Rogers predicted that "it's going to be one of the worst recessions we've had in a while because we had so many excesses going into it. It's going to be bad for all of us as currencies come under more and more stress and we have more inflation in the world.''
Moreover, Rogers, who already was bearish on the U.S. dollar, said he hopes to have all of his assets in other currencies by the end of the year. He also predicted that the greenback will be "under duress for many years to come."
Rogers, the head of Rogers Holdings, is hardly the only nervous Nelly about the economy. In a separate interview, with Bloomberg News, Harvard University's Martin Feldstein pegged the odds of a recession at more than 50%, adding that consumers "are going to be a little more reluctant to spend, and that is going to put a further drag on growth in 2008.''
Of course, all of this is great news for the Democrats and bad news for the Republicans, particularly former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, heading into tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. Romney has been touting his experience in corporate America to voters. But voters aren't keen on corporations these days, which is why he's losing ground to Mike Huckabee.
Serious Money: No recession in 2008
All this recession talk has not convinced me that we are destined to have one, and I see plenty of signs that 2008 might surprise to the upside. There are plenty of problems within the US economy, and I could make a case that there is a possibility that the economy might catch cold but remedies also exist. I see the cup as half full for the stock market. This is not to say that individuals will not have to deal with hard times, they will - but the market might shine. This can happen because the market is global.
Many widely followed investment icons have a different perspective, including renowned international investor Jim Rogers in the December issue of Fortune who said, "In my view, the U.S. economy is in recession. I know the government says we're not. But as I look around, we know that automobiles are in worse than recession. The same thing is true for home-builders. Much of the financial sector is in worse than recession. So many parts of America are in worse than recession, and yet the government says we're not in a recession. I don't know what's so strong that it's offsetting these major weaknesses in the American economy. I just assume that the government is lying."
I can agree that the government is lying, but I can't agree that the economy is void of positives. There is plenty that is going strong in the economy. The defense sector is going strong as I reported on recently Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year and there is every indication this will continue.
Best Stocks for 2008: Penn West (PWE) for total returns
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"A top speculative idea for 2008 is Calgary-based Penn West Energy Trust (NYSE: PWE)," says Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus. "We would consider this stock a 'smart money' buy.
"Commodities guru Jim Rogers said four years ago that energy prices would go a lot higher and stay there longer than anyone supposed. We believed him, and loaded up on energy, with spectacular results. We're up 45% this year alone.
"The thesis still stands. Within five years Mexico, our second largest oil supplier, will be a net importer of oil. Prices will remain high.
"Penn West Energy Trust is out of favor because Canadian tax laws change in 2009, and it faces corporate taxes. But with the units currently yielding 15%, even a few quarters of lower payouts in a recession, and a 30% tax bite in 2009, the units will still yield near 10%.
"With its long-lived reserves, the company has good growth prospects to boot. Great for current income or long-term total return. Buy up to $33.50."
Rogers sees more dog days for US dollar in 2008
In the coming weeks, bloggingstocks.com will review those stocks most likely to benefit under each scenario: a weak dollar or a strong dollar.
Commodities expert Jim Rogers is on-record with where he thinks the U.S. dollar is headed in 2008: down. That, in and of itself, is not news.
"It doesn't take a genius to figure out that it's a currency that's going to be going down for some time to come," Rogers said in an interview with the Financial Times. Rogers added that in his interpretation the U.S. Federal Reserve's and the U.S. Treasury's willingness to print money and drive down the greenback is clear.
Among other consequences of the dollar's continued fall, Roger sees higher commodity prices, a rise in U.S. inflation, and a rise in China's currency, the yuan (if the Chinese government lets it rise more). Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said he is also shorting shares of Citigroup (NYSE: C). [Citigroup's shares closed down $1.92 to $35.81Monday after the company said it will have to write-off $8 billion-$11 billion to account for the reduced value of subprime mortgage-related securities.]
All of which begs a good question by the investor / reader: How did the U.S. dollar drop so much in value?
Commodities expert Jim Rogers is on-record with where he thinks the U.S. dollar is headed in 2008: down. That, in and of itself, is not news.
"It doesn't take a genius to figure out that it's a currency that's going to be going down for some time to come," Rogers said in an interview with the Financial Times. Rogers added that in his interpretation the U.S. Federal Reserve's and the U.S. Treasury's willingness to print money and drive down the greenback is clear.
Among other consequences of the dollar's continued fall, Roger sees higher commodity prices, a rise in U.S. inflation, and a rise in China's currency, the yuan (if the Chinese government lets it rise more). Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said he is also shorting shares of Citigroup (NYSE: C). [Citigroup's shares closed down $1.92 to $35.81Monday after the company said it will have to write-off $8 billion-$11 billion to account for the reduced value of subprime mortgage-related securities.]
All of which begs a good question by the investor / reader: How did the U.S. dollar drop so much in value?
Continue reading Rogers sees more dog days for US dollar in 2008
Jim Rogers: Bernanke isn't smart and real estate has a lot farther to fall
Jim Rogers is pretty much the man, and anyone who followed the advice in his book Hot Commodities has already made a bunch of money. But his latest comments on state of the financial world are not so encouraging.
Rogers said the fallout from the subprime mess has "got a long way to go'' in an interview with Bloomberg News. According to the piece:
"This was one of the biggest bubbles we've ever had in credit,'' Rogers, chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc., said in an interview from Hong Kong. "I have been and am still short the investment bankers in America. I'm also short homebuilders.''
Uh oh. Jim Rogers is one of a handful of experts who really is worth listening to when he opines on macroeconomic issues, even if you don't like what he has to say.
The business world is anxiously waiting to hear what Ben Bernanke has to say, but Rogers' wisdom may be even more important for individual investors to heed.
Also on CNBC this morning, Jim Rogers said he did not support a Fed bailout of the stock market and said that while Bernanke is "not very smart," he hopes he won't make that mistake.
Jim Rogers: Oil to $150 a barrel
Back in the 1970s, Jim Rogers made a fortune on commodities investing. At the time, he was a part of the pioneering hedge fund, Quantum.
Well, once again, he's very bullish on commodities -- including oil.
But, isn't oil collapsing? According to a story in Bloomberg.com, this is just a correction.
In fact, Rogers foresees oil at $150 a barrel or more. Basically, he thinks it's inevitable.
His analysis is fairly straightforward. First, the demand for oil will continue to increase (especially with the emergence of India and China). And, there has not been a major new oil discovery in over 30 years.
Yes, it's a matter of global supply-and-demand.
But, you may not want to rush to buy. According to Rogers, a correction could easily last a couple years.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.
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