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Closing Bell: Recession-end sells the short-sellers (PG, HGSI, FSLR, AMSC, TSPT)

Today was all about much better than expected GDP reports. The lackluster jobless claims failed to even make a ripple after the GDP marked an unofficial end of the recession. The market absorbed over $500 million in secondary offerings like it was a stick of butter being put on a giant baked potato.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,960.54 +197.85 (2.03%)
S&P 500 1,065.81 +23.18 (2.22%)
Nasdaq 2,097.55 +37.94 (1.84%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: Recession-end sells the short-sellers (PG, HGSI, FSLR, AMSC, TSPT)

Closing Bell: DJIA component earnings lift market (EBAY, HTE, MI, MCD, MMM)

Markets rose substantially at the end of the day, in part led by the strong earnings reports from 5 of 30 DJIA components this morning alone. This was despite the discussions of the risks of the US's Triple-A rating, another drop in home prices, and despite weekly jobless claims heading higher.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,081.31 +131.95 (1.33%)
S&P 500 1,092.91 +11.51 (1.06%)
Nasdaq 2,165.29 +14.56 (0.68%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: DJIA component earnings lift market (EBAY, HTE, MI, MCD, MMM)

First-time jobless claims fall faster than expected

First-time claims for jobless benefits fell last week, hitting the lowest level we've seen since January. The U.S. Department of Labor pegged the number at 521,000. This is down from the previous week's 554,000 (which had been revised upward). Wall Street economists anticipated 540,000. Claims of this type have fallen four times in five weeks, and the four-week average reached 539,750 – its lowest level since January 17, 2009.

In general, first-time claims for unemployment benefits have been declining since the spring, though slowly. Unfortunately, they still remain well above the 325,000 that economists claim to be indicative of a healthy economy.

Continue reading First-time jobless claims fall faster than expected

Closing Bell: Bulls start getting drunk (MO, AIG, BA, C, HOG, IMMU)

This morning's revised GDP and still high jobless claims were of no concern to the bulls. After a key DJIA component had news, and after interest perked back up in the financial stocks, traders forgot about selling and just started buying all over again. Seven days in a row of an up market is becoming a normal event, it seems.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,576.47 +32.95 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,030.91 +2.79 (0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,028.09 +3.66 (0.18%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: Bulls start getting drunk (MO, AIG, BA, C, HOG, IMMU)

Closing Bell: When green shoots turn to blooms (AAPL, BAC, COST, GS, VLO)

Today was looking like a fairly quiet day with no solid direction, but the green shoots crowd got some actual good news on the jobs front. This was the first report since once in January where the massive army of continuing jobless claims actually fell. We also saw a positive report showing positive CEO Sentiment again for the month of May. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,750.24 +74.96 (0.86%)
S&P 500 942.46 +10.70 (1.15%)
Nasdaq 1,850.02 +24.10 (1.32%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: When green shoots turn to blooms (AAPL, BAC, COST, GS, VLO)

Unemployment continues its rise in April

Jobless claimsThe employment data is in for April, and it is not a pretty picture, as all but 6 states in the country saw increases in the number of jobless claims.

We all hope that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is right, and the economy is going to start to turn around in the latter part of this year, but even the most optimistic forecasters agree that unemployment is going to continue to rise, possibly above 10% before the worst is over.

Continue reading Unemployment continues its rise in April

U.S. jobless claims rose 32,000 to 637,000

New jobless claims jumped unexpectedly last week by 32,000 to 637,000, much worse than economists predicted. And we have another disappointing number: Continuing claims for unemployment rose to a record high of 6.56 million, up from 6.34 million the previous week. The insured unemployment rate rose by .1% to 4.9%.

Obviously, these numbers are throwing cold water on any claims of reaching bottom. Last week, the Labor Department reported that unemployment rose to 8.9%, the highest level in 25 years.

U.S. wholesale prices also rose in April, led by rising food costs. This is a weird fact because it indicates that we are not spiraling into deflation, but it doesn't help the average person. The increase was led by the price of eggs, beef and milk. The price of gas rose by 2.6% but residential fuel costs eased.

Continue reading U.S. jobless claims rose 32,000 to 637,000

Has the sharp increase in layoffs finally peaked?

Unemployment dataThe market has been trading lower today, despite news that new jobless claims dropped much more than analysts had been predicting.

The Department of labor announced today that there were 601,000 first time applicants for unemployment last week. While it is tough to find the bright side of this many people losing their jobs, the silver lining is that analysts had been expecting to see the report to show 635,000 new applicants.

Continue reading Has the sharp increase in layoffs finally peaked?

Closing Bell: Profit taking is actually possible (COF, CSCO, SIRI, SYMC, VG, WMT)

Fed Chairman Bernanke gave an outline of regulation for banks and financial institutions today, and the weekly jobless claims gave some hope that tomorrow's unemployment might come in under expectations. There is a "sell the news" mentality that is going around ahead of the stress test and there was some tech profit taking after John Chambers was less optimistic. It looks like at least some profit taking is actually possible to see again.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,376.64 -135.64 (-1.59%)
S&P 500 907.28 -12.25 (-1.33%)
Nasdaq 1,716.24 -42.86 (-2.44%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: Profit taking is actually possible (COF, CSCO, SIRI, SYMC, VG, WMT)

Closing Bell: An IPO, Banks & Tech, all killing the bears (JPM, RST, SBUX, LUV, RF)

The sages say to sell the news and have started calling the market grossly overbought on the near-term, yet stock enthusiasm is at the exact opposite of how negative things were 6 weeks ago. We have 6 million on the jobless claims now, although this week showed a real decline in new claims. The rally came on late in the day after the market was down triple-digits at one point. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,125.43 +95.81 (1.19%)
S&P 500 865.29 +13.23 (1.55%)
Nasdaq 1,670.44 +43.64 (2.68%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: An IPO, Banks & Tech, all killing the bears (JPM, RST, SBUX, LUV, RF)

Oil jumps over 5% as traders take a positive stance on the economy

rising oil pricesAs investors start to believe that the worst of the current recession is already behind us, they are turning their attention to oil, and today have pushed the precious crude over the psychological $50 mark.

Oil is moving higher today with the overall markets, as Wall Street has been seeing hints that things are starting to turn around. Part of the reason for the optimism has come in the form of strong earnings this week from Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) and Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY). If restaurants and retailers are seeing things start to rebound, its a good sign for the overall economy, and a sign that people are out there driving their cars around, which helps boost oil prices.

Continue reading Oil jumps over 5% as traders take a positive stance on the economy

March payrolls fall by 663,000, unemployment jumps to 8.5%

According to a report released by the Labor Department this morning, U.S. nonfarm payrolls dropped by 663,000 in March and the unemployment rate ascended to 8.5% from 8.1%. January's job losses were revised to 741,000 -- which is the worst since 1949. The Labor Department also reported 651,000 jobs lost in February. For the record, March was the fourth straight month with more than 600,000 job losses; a record that no one wanted to see set.

During the past six months, nearly 3.7 million jobs have been lost, or nearly 3% of the workforce. The percentage loss is the second largest in 50 years. Turning to specific industries, service industries saw 358,000 jobs lost and goods-producing industries saw 305,000 jobs lost. While job losses spanned the spectrum of jobs, health care actually saw an increase of 14,000. According to the report, only 22% of the 271 industries were hiring during March.

Continue reading March payrolls fall by 663,000, unemployment jumps to 8.5%

New record for jobless claims

According to the Labor Department, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 last week. Last week's advance pushed the total number of claims (669,000) to the highest level since October 1982.

Moreover, the 669,000 claims are up 72% from the same period last year. The four-week average of initial claims increased 6,500 to 656,750; hitting its highest point since October 1982.

For the week ending March 21, the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits increased 161,000 to 5.73 million. Not only is this level 96% higher than a year ago, but it is also a new record (should we sound bells and whistles?).

Continue reading New record for jobless claims

Factory orders fall for a fifth straight month

Factory orders fell in December for a record fifth month in a row. With December's numbers now in the books, it is official that last year was the worst year for manufacturers since 2002.

Going into today's announcement, everyone agreed that factory orders had probably dropped in December, but analysts were not expecting the decline to be as steep as the actual figures revealed. Analysts had estimated that we would see a 3% dip in factory orders for the month, but the actual numbers indicate a deeper 3.9% reduction during December.

Continue reading Factory orders fall for a fifth straight month

Foreclosures to rise 125% by 2010; jobless claims at 26-year high

The deflation drumbeat continues. As prices drop, businesses produce less and they cut the people doing the producing. With the exception of stocks and oil, it seems that nowhere are prices falling faster than in houses -- slashing $10 trillion in consumer wealth. And the spike in foreclosures adds more supply to the market for houses, just as demand keeps falling.

The foreclosure forecasts and initial unemployment claims figures released today are indeed sobering. The spike in foreclosures is expected to come from Pay Option mortgages, which let borrowers pay less than they owe each month and add that amount into the principal. But the Pay Option resets the rate upward when the new principal rises above 110% of the original amount.

Thanks in part to a 63% -- or $1,053 -- monthly increase in the current $1,672 average payment, foreclosures are expected to rise 125% to 3.6 million by 2010 over the three million that have occurred since 2006. Meanwhile, initial applications for jobless benefits rose to 573,000 in the week ending December 6 -- 9% more than the expected 525,000 -- from 515,000 the week before.

If this is what an Ownership Society is all about, maybe it's time to forget about Ownership and create an Affordership Society where people live within their means instead of borrowing to buy things they can't really afford.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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DJIA+20.0310,246.97
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S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 01:51 AM

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