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Posts with tag JoblessClaims

80,000 job cuts in March: How many more to come?

Bloomberg News reports that employers slashed 80,000 jobs in March. This accelerates the rate of monthly job cuts -- 76,000 lost their jobs in March -- and boosts the unemployment rate -- at 5.1% it's the highest since September 2005 when it was 4.8%.

The jobs hits are coming from the automobile, construction, and financial industries. 24,000 jobs were lost in the auto manufacturing and parts industries; builders eliminated 51,000 jobs after a decline of 37,000 in February; and Wall Street banks hit by mortgage losses and write-downs have cut more than 34,000 jobs in the past nine months.

Nobody really knows how bad the layoffs will get. But Fortune reports that there's no magic wand that can help you if you've been laid off. It advises people to "step back, take a deep breath, and take a careful look at your career -- to re-evaluate your goals in life. What do you really want to do next? Maybe it's time to move on to something completely different. This is your chance to find out."

In the next few years, many more people will be taking that chance.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Jobless claims jump after Bernanke recession talk

Reuters reports that jobless claims jumped to their highest level since 2005. Specifically, U.S. workers applying for unemployment benefit rose by 38,000 last week, posting the highest reading since September 2005. I guess Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had the statistics on his side when he testified that "It now appears likely that real gross domestic product [GDP] will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly."

The key is how the statistics performed relative to expectations. The 407,000 jobless claims reported in the week ended March 29 was way above economists' estimates of 370,000. If consumers lose their jobs, they'll have even more trouble borrowing to pay their rising costs of living. Although government statistics hide it -- anyone who drives or buys food knows that prices are rising.

Bloomberg News reports that job losses are coming from homebuilders and housing-related businesses, including lenders and financial service companies with exposure to mortgage-backed securities, are also stepping up firings. It also quotes an analyst who said, "400,000 is usually a trigger point when we consider recessionary times." I credit Bernanke for knowing a bit more about what's going on -- unlike the President who was shocked to learn about $4 a gallon gas. .

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Will Wall Street be littered with the blood of 40,000 broke bankers?

This morning's report that U.S. jobless claims rebounded suggests that the economy may be slowing down. But Merrill Lynch & Co.'s (NYSE: MER) decision to clean house in its fixed income division tells us one source of future job losses.

Initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 to 317,000 in the week ending September 29, marking their highest level since September 8. Many of those job losses were undoubtedly related to the housing slowdown. Certainly an estimated $4 billion loss in housing finance -- in the form of too many subprime mortgages -- led to Merrill's canning of its global head of fixed income, Osman Semerci, his deputy, Dale Lattanzio, co-head of fixed income for the Americas and their former boss, Dow Kim, the former co-head of institutional securities.

Does Merrill's decision -- coupled with some 3,400 jobs cut already -- mark the beginning of a multi-year Wall Street slump? As DealBreaker posts, BreakingViews [subscription required] pointed out that more Wall Street heads could roll. 20% of New York City's financial workforce got the boot in the two years after the 2001 downturn. A 20% decline over the next few years would litter Wall Street with the blood of "40,000 Big Apple financiers."

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Merrill Lynch securities.

Jobless claims report: Where's the economic weakness?

Jobless claims last week unexpectedly fell to 293,000, down 5,000 from the previous week. Economists had been expecting that the weakness in housing would spread to other parts of the economy. However, this latest report indicated that they may be waiting for quite some time.

This report seems to also clearly support the Fed's position that the subprime mortgage crisis is largely contained and is not spreading to the rest of the economy. Dr. Bernanke described this in detail in a speech that he made today. The Philly Fed Report also came in better-than-expected.

The combination of the Bernanke speech, the Philly Fed report and the Jobless Claims report also seemed to put cold water on any hopes by Wall Street for a rate cut in the near future. The economy is still slowing, however, slow growth is still growth. It is not the beginning of a recession which would necessitate substantial rate cuts.

Chairman Bernanke has made it abundantly clear that he will let the economic data dictate changes in the Fed's position rather than anticipating the changes. Wall Street would be well advised to remember this point. It is much more profitable to follow rather than to fight the Fed.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an investment strategy that uses the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

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Last updated: July 25, 2008: 08:26 PM

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