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The U.S. economy strengthens, and the unemployment rate rises. Why?

Posted Dec 14th 2009 9:00AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Employees

One statistic and condition that befuddles many Americans concerns the unemployment rate as the economy starts to strengthen.

The puzzler? The unemployment rate almost always rises as the economy gains momentum in the initial stage of the recovery. It leaves many Americans -- and no-doubt more than a few investors -- shaking their heads. How can the economy be strengthening if unemployment is rising?

Continue reading The U.S. economy strengthens, and the unemployment rate rises. Why?

Jobless rate jumps to 10.2% during October

Posted Nov 6th 2009 10:00AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Before the Bell, Bad News, Employees, Economic Data

Is this bad news for the recovery? The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% in October, pushing the rate atop the 10% mark for the first time in 26 years. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 190,000 in October, bringing the total number of jobs sacrificed to the recession to 7.3 million. October was the 22nd straight month that saw payrolls decline. According to MarketWatch, expectations were for an unemployment rate of 10% and 150,000 jobs lost.

Yesterday, I took a look at the weekly jobless claims, suggesting that we could see a substantial drop today if this morning's jobs report came in worse than expected. The report was worse, now let's see if yesterday's "good news" and rally is going to give way to a slump like last Friday.

Continue reading Jobless rate jumps to 10.2% during October

Four reasons we're stuck with high unemployment for a while

Posted Oct 20th 2009 3:00PM by Tom Johansmeyer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Employees, Economic Data, Personal Finance, Recession

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Unemployment is at 9.8%, and it's expected to clear 10% early next year. Then, we have the specter of a jobless recovery with which to contend. "Full employment" is often considered to be an unemployment rate of 4% to 5%, but it could be a while before we get there. The last downturn, following the dotcom bust, resulted in a peak unemployment rate of 6.3% in 2003 ... and we're already well past that.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

Continue reading Four reasons we're stuck with high unemployment for a while

Consumers will get squeezed through 2009

Posted Aug 11th 2008 2:26PM by Jonathan Berr (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Bad News, Economic Data

As Joe Lazzaro posted earlier, economists expect the bad times to continue through next year, according to a survey by Bloomberg News.

Here are the low lights:

The economy will grow at an average 0.7% from July through December, half the gain in the first six months of the year;
Household spending, which has grown every quarter since 1992, is projected to stall as the impact of the tax rebates fades;
The jobless rate, now at 5.7 percent, will reach a five-year high of 6 percent in early 2009.

The question is how is this going to play politically.

Will the Democrats use this data to push for a second stimulus bill? Will growing political tensions between Russia and Georgia push up oil prices higher and make matters even worse for consumers? What about the Fed? Will it have to begin raising interest rates? When will the housing market hit bottom?

Only the most cockeyed of optimists can see a light at the end of this tunnel.