The latter half of this week before Friday's market open is perhaps not the best time to gauge the U.S. stock market's strength.

And the reason is obvious enough: look for institutional investors (IIs) to take some money off the table ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll employment report for October from the U.S. Labor Department.

New York Times (NYSE: NYT) columnist Paul Krugman argues quite persuasively that the major problem with the fiscal stimulus package was that it was too small, given the financial crisis and the large economic crater the accompanying, pronounced recession created.

Further, the fiscal stimulus' many benefits -- including substantial job retention in essential public services such as education -- are harder to see and not likely to translate into too much political gain for President Obama and Congressional Democrats, he said. That's consistent with a political science axiom -- often repeated by U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massachusetts -- that "Congress gets little credit or benefit for averting something." Indeed, retained jobs are hard to see, and the fact that a local public school system is is still operating with as many teachers is an accomplishment, but one that most American voters will take for granted, and not give Democrats credit for.

Now that the U.S. economy is growing -- GDP grew at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3, according to U.S. Commerce Department data, one key question for investors large and small is: Is the U.S. economic expansion sustainable?

Investors can immerse themselves in data on consumer spending, retail sales, new home sales, auto sales, and factory output etc., and all of those provide clues, no question. But if you're time-pressed and you want one metric to gauge the U.S. economy's likely health 6-9 months from now, monitor: monthly non-farm payrolls, as tallied by the U.S. Labor Department. I.E., how many jobs the U.S. economy lost or created in the previous month.

This morning, the White House reported that President Obama's stimulus package has created or saved 650,000 jobs -- of course, this time the Obama Administration promises that the new figures will be "more accurate" than in the past. As for the jobs saved or created, the administration based its finds on roughly $150 billion in spending from the $787 billion stimulus package. These "more accurate" numbers are taken from state reports and private companies. The White House did note that the actual number of jobs created thus far is "likely closer to 1 million" because this report looked at only $150 billion of the $339 billion invested in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds spent.

There is no question that the recession took its tool on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT). The company saw its stock plummet from mid 2008 through March of this year. Along the way the company was forced to layoff employees to help lower costs, but it announced today that it would be rehiring 550 of its laid off workers.

Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens announced the news and stated that the company was pleased that "signs of recovery in the global economy" is allowing it to bring back some employees.

The pundits on CNBC get all giggly when we lose "only" 550,000 jobs -- a true sign of the times. Uber analyst Meredith Whitney, one of the few people on Wall Street who has been worth listening to during the past three years, is forecasting 13% unemployment in 2010 or 2011.

Officially, unemployment currently stands at 9.8%. But if you add in part-time workers wanting more work and the people who are so discouraged they have stopped looking, the number is a shocking 20%.

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Unemployment is at 9.8%, and it's expected to clear 10% early next year. Then, we have the specter of a jobless recovery with which to contend. "Full employment" is often considered to be an unemployment rate of 4% to 5%, but it could be a while before we get there. The last downturn, following the dotcom bust, resulted in a peak unemployment rate of 6.3% in 2003 ... and we're already well past that.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that housing starts rose a bit in September, helped by a rise in single-family home construction, but this bit of good news came with some bad news that applications for new home construction were down in the month.

According to the report, construction of new homes and apartments rose by 0.5% in the month, to an annualized rate of 590,000 units. While any growth for housing starts comes as good news in the current market, it is not as good as it appears at first glance, considering that analysts had been expecting to see the annualized rate increase to 610,000 units.

On Tuesday, Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) stepped into the earnings spotlight, announcing a higher third-quarter profit compared to last year. The pharmaceutical firm earned 43 cents per share, or 51 cents per share in adjusted earnings. A year ago, PFE earned 34 cents per share before item exclusions. The Street expected PFE to report third-quarter earnings of 48 cents per share excluding items.

Quarterly revenue checked in at $11.62 billion, 3% lower than last year's third-quarter revenue. Revenue was pulled roughly 5% lower due to unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

Since the stock market bottomed in March of this year, it has been firing on all cylinders -- except for those in the auto industry who manufacture the most cylinders of course. This year has not been kind to them.

For months, many have been surprised at the rapid rise, given the level of unemployment. During this same period, Wall Streeters have been dancing up and down, looking forward to more bonuses.

As the number of unemployed has climbed and the period of same has lengthened, many have wondered how business could be improving during a time when the consumer (those still left) has transformed from spender to saver.

Investors, like the former great New York Yankee Manager Joe Torre, now manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, have to be both aware of the current game situation, and be a few innings ahead, working through the permutations of what might occur.

With the above in mind, from an investor-relevance standpoint, what's next on the public policy front, after health care reform?

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the relentless ascent can only point to a belief that Congress will put jobs on the front burner.

Washington's listening. I think that Washington has had its fill of health care talk and is anxious to focus on jobs. President Obama wants to dither now with carbon capture, content that the stimulus plan, however bogus it was, is doing the job. But Congress senses that they are 13 months from a debacle and they are going to bring employment to the front burner.

That's what I think the market is saying. When I spoke to Dan DiMicco last night, the CEO from Nucor (NUE) (Cramer's Take), he showed devastating evidence of the real unemployment, now at about 18%, and the lack of job creation coming out of this recession compared to the last four recessions.

Is it time to rethink the U.S. job creation paradigm? It may very well be.

The Obama administration is said-to-be weighing whether to propose a corporate tax credit for new hires and extending unemployment insurance and Cobra benefits in light the nation's job creation drought, The Wall Street Journal reported(subscription required.)

Unemployment is at its highest level since 1983, hitting 9.8% last month. The Department of Labor announced that 263,000 jobs were lost. This follows a revised loss of 201,000 jobs in August (lower than first reported). Nobody expected the August unemployment reprieve to last, and the increase suggests that the forecasted 10.3% unemployment rate for early next year will be realized.

Originally, the forecasted unemployment drop for September was 175,000, according to Bloomberg News, with individual economists surveyed reporting in a range of 100,000 to 260,000.

The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment rose to 551,000 from 534,000 in the previous week, much more than the 5,000 economists had expected. The number remaining on the rolls fell by 70,000 to 6.09 million, but this statistic likely is unreliable because of all the people who have exhausted their benefits.

Congress has added 53 weeks of benefits on top of the the usual 26 weeks. Now with thousands of people having exhausted their benefits, Congress is considering extending benefits for another 13 weeks.