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McCain to GM: Go bankrupt!

Republican Senator John McCain is joining the growing ranks of "Let General Motors (NYSE: GM) file for bankruptcy" advocates.

"The best thing that could probably happen to General Motors, in my view, is they go into Chapter 11," he told Fox News yesterday. A bankruptcy filing, he explained, would allow the company to more quickly restructure itself to become "stronger, better, leaner."

Speaking on ABC, Senator Richard Shelby echoed his sentiments, saying that "subsidization of anything for very long never works. . . I've suggested they go into Chapter 11. That's where they belong. And they could reorganize."

Continue reading McCain to GM: Go bankrupt!

Money losers of 2008: Mitt Romney ran for president and all he got was ...

This post is part of our feature on Money Losers of 2008. See all 20.

Willard Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007, was the wealthiest of all the 2008 presidential candidates. When he formally announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination for president on February 13, 2007, the former venture capitalist was believed to have amassed a fortune worth as much as $250 million.

After the first fundraiser for his presidential campaign committee on January 9, 2007, Romney had already brought in $6.5 million, more than the amounts raised by any other Republican contender. Meg Whitman, CEO of eBay and a former colleague of Romney, signed on as a financial co-chair of his presidential campaign. And first quarter 2007 fund-raising information showed Romney leading the Republican field with more than $23 million, though that was less than funds raised by Democratic contenders Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the same period. Fund-raising results for the second quarter revealed that Romney had lent $8.9 million to his campaign from his personal funds, as well as that he had spent $20.7 million, more than any other Republican candidate. By the end of 2007, he had raised $88.5 million, but $35.4 million of that came from his own pocket.

Winning the money race, strategically outspending other candidates on advertising in the early primary states, and promising to donate his salary as president to charity (as he had done as governor) wasn't enough to secure Romney the nomination. He dropped out of the race after disappointing Super Tuesday results in February 2008, when opponent John McCain solidified his position as the party's frontrunner. Romney won only 11 state primaries and caucuses, 4.7 million votes, and 291 delegates. According to Federal Election Commission filings, all told, the campaign spent $113.6 million, $44.6 of which came from Romney himself.

Continue reading Money losers of 2008: Mitt Romney ran for president and all he got was ...

Money winners of 2008: Sarah Palin, coming to a book store near you

This post is part of our feature on Money Winners of 2008. See all 20.

They called her Caribou Barbie. Saturday Night Live lampooned her mercilessly during the presidential election. The media elite denounced her as an idiot and a right-wing loony tune. But Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is not going to fade into the snow of the beautiful state she governs. In fact, she is coming to a book store near you.

Media reports indicate that the former vice presidential nominee is expected to earn $7 million to tell her life story to a ghost writer. That's not too shabby considering that former president Bill Clinton got about $11 million for his life story and he actually was the leader of the free world. Barack Obama and his former rival John McCain both have earned big money from their books, so why shouldn't Palin.

There was also some talk during the campaign about a talk show or reality show starring the woman responsible for giving Tina Fey's career a boost -- as if it really needed one -- but that seems to have gone nowhere.

Palin, though, will have the last laugh on her naysayers, including me. During her brief time in the spotlight, Palin transformed herself from an obscure politician to a cultural icon. Along the way, she infuriated many voters and charmed more than a few. The power of Palin's celebrity will entice people who may not agree with her politically to buy her book. Her devoted fans will line up at the bookstores to buy it as well. Palin's tome has the makings of a best-seller.

Continue reading Money winners of 2008: Sarah Palin, coming to a book store near you

Best & Worst in Money 2008: Hottest in entertainment

This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.

Well, 2008 has come and gone. If you were looking to be entertained over the past 12 months, you had a lot of choices. From Batman's battle with the maniacal Joker to Hannah Montana singing her little heart out in 3-D, there was something for everyone. Let's look at five of the hottest properties that made their way into the heart of the cultural mindshare in '08.

Up first is The Dark Knight, the second iteration of director Christopher Nolan's new vision of the Caped Crusader. That movie killed at the box office, and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) could not have been happier. Knight scored almost $1 billion at the global box office. More than half that number was captured in the domestic marketplace. There's no question that the movie mesmerized the collective intellect of the audience. There's also no question that Heath Ledger, who tragically passed away earlier in the year, impressed everyone with his portrayal of the chaotic and cruel Joker villain. I, however, do have a question. Is it just me, or was Knight not as awesome a film as the hype makes it out to be? I saw it, thought it was okay. I don't know, I'm just not sure that this new entry in the cinematic Batman mythos would have brought in as many bucks if the notoriety of Ledger's death wasn't attached to these particular reels of celluloid. To be honest, I didn't think Ledger did that unique of a job. And I thought The Joker's voice was annoying, almost sounding like Sam Raimi -- did anyone else happen to think that? Maybe it's just me. Nevertheless, I salute the success of Knight and respect the project for the impact it had on theaters 'round the world.

Continue reading Best & Worst in Money 2008: Hottest in entertainment

Financial Felons: Charles Keating

This post is part of a feature in which he wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial felons. See all 17.

I thought we'd have heard more about Charles Keating over the last few weeks of the 2008 presidential election, but much to my surprise the Obama campaign refrained from mentioning him. Keating was once the chairman of the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association, the infamous bank at the center of the S&L scandal of the 1980s; that scandal featured none other than John McCain, one of the "Keating Five" group of disgraced senators and more recently the Republican Party's nominee for president. But McCain's connection to Keating didn't seem to play a role in the 2008 election, and McCain lost the race for reasons other than being connected to one of the great financial crooks in recent memory.

To be fair, Keating was not a big fan of John McCain. He reportedly called him a "wimp" behind his back, accusing him of lacking the courage to fight the regulators who sought to reign in Keating's bank. McCain, along with John Glenn, were cleared by the Senate Ethics Committee of impropriety in their relationship with Keating, though they were publicly criticized for exercising "poor judgment." McCain later said that trying to help Keating was "the worst mistake of my life," though he didn't seem too upset about riding around the Caribbean on Keating's private jet.

Continue reading Financial Felons: Charles Keating

The market already expects Barack Obama to win

Investors may not support Barack Obama, but they do expect him to be the next president of the United States. The smart ones do anyway.

If the polls are to be believed, Obama should easily defeat John McCain. Even the ultra-conservative talking heads on CNBC seem to have accepted this reality. Carl Quintinilla recently asked Pennyslvania Senator Bob Casey whether Obama will be "pulled to the left" if the Democrats win in a landslide. Why not ask Casey, who is pretty conservative as Democrats go, about Obama's five-year plan? I guess it's no surprise that the business network has Steve Forbes as a guest host on "Squawk Box." The Arizona senator needs all of the help he can get.

The market already -- wrongly in my view -- views Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal ready to suck away their capital gains and wrap America in bubble wrap to protect it from the ravages of world trade. The truth is more complex than these stereotypes. Obama plans to cut taxes for most Americans and favors fair trade policies. Markets, however, anticipate the future and people are scared. That explains why the Dow Jones industrial average is down more than 29%.

Continue reading The market already expects Barack Obama to win

The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4

Most major polls have U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, leading U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, in the contest for U.S. president. And, if the election were held today, instead of on Tuesday, November 4, Election Day, Obama would register a decisive victory in the all-important electoral college, as well as in the popular vote.

As of late Friday, NPR.org's survey of polls had the electoral vote at Obama, 291, McCain 163. Four battleground states are still in play: Ohio, where Obama lead by 5%; Florida, Obama by 3.5%; Indiana, McCain by 1.7%; and Missouri, McCain by about 0.5%. Concerning the national vote, on Friday, Gallup.com's daily tracking poll had Obama leading McCain, 52% to 41%.

Still, as most political aides will tell you, "the only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4." In other words, polls can err; that's why they have a margin of error, typically +/- 2%.

Polls only recently have become more accurate. Some notable poll mistakes include the 1980 U.S. presidential election, when some polls had incumbent President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat slightly ahead of the challenger, then Gov. Ronald Reagan, a Republican. Reagan, of course won the 1980 election in a landslide.

Pres. Truman had the last laugh on pollers

But the biggest polling error in a presidential election has to be the 1948 election between President Harry S. Truman, a Democrat, and challenger Gov. Thomas E. Dewey, a Republican.

The polls predicted that Dewey would win by a large margin. They were wrong: Truman won a decisive victory, 303-189, in the electoral college.

Continue reading The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4

John McCain pledges to cut taxes and will still lose big

John McCain went on CNBC this morning to argue -- once again -- that the key to reviving the economies lies with keeping taxes under control, especially the capital gains tax. The Arizona Republican yet again accused Democrat Barack Obama of being a tax-and-spend liberal, the type of boogeyman that would send shivers down the spine of most CNBC viewers.

And you know what? These tactics are failing miserably. Polls indicate that baring any huge cataclysmic event, Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. According to Bloomberg News, McCain "goes into the campaign's final weekend a bigger underdog than any victorious candidate in a modern election."

Continue reading John McCain pledges to cut taxes and will still lose big

Currency traders: Obama wins, buy the dollar; McCain wins, short the dollar

What's the post-2008 U.S. Presidential Election dollar outlook and the dollar strategy?

Well, more than likely, the dollar's fate will be largely determined by macroeconomic factors, as well as by fiscal and monetary policy, along with the overall risk appetite/risk aversion climate that hinges on the status of the global financial crisis.

As any economist or currency trader will tell you, that's a full plate of variables, which only underscores the complexity (and difficulty) in determining the direction of currencies.

Nov. 4 election will help determine dollar's fate

Still, fiscal policy plays an important role, and with the aforementioned in mind, look for the following dollar pattern depending on the Tuesday, November 4 Election Day outcome: If U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, wins, the dollar is likely to strengthen, long-term. If U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, wins, the dollar is likely to weaken, long-term.

Currency Trader Eric Simpkins outlined the Obama scenario. Although U.S. budget deficits will initially be high as an Obama presidency begins, an Obama win implies a Democratic Party majority in the U.S. Congress, which will make it easier for Obama to raise taxes on upper income groups, basically those Americans earning more than $250,000 per year.

"Obama's tax increase will cut the U.S. budget deficit and get the revenue and spending lines heading in the right direction, together, which will cause the dollar to rise," Simpkins said. "The U.S. recession will mitigate this somewhat, but that economic negative will be offset by the fact that Europe and other regions will be in recession, too, and will likely recover later, putting pressure on those currencies."

Continue reading Currency traders: Obama wins, buy the dollar; McCain wins, short the dollar

InTrade's electoral college vote predictor sees: Obama, 364, McCain, 174

Stock, oil and related futures provide valuable clues for investors/readers concerning where these market / commodities are headed.

With the above as background, Intrade.com's futures for the 2008 U.S. presidential election currently predict a decisive victory for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, over U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona.

InTrade's Realtime Electoral Vote Predictor is projecting an electoral college vote total of: Obama 364, McCain, 174. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Futures for Obama win are high


Futures on an Obama win are at 86.4. The 86.4 level means that the market predicts there is an 86.4% chance of this event happening. All Intrade markets trade between 0 and 100.

Futures on a McCain win are at 14.4, signaling that the market believes there's a 14.4% of McCain winning the election.

Continue reading InTrade's electoral college vote predictor sees: Obama, 364, McCain, 174

Are you ready for the last two weeks of presidential campaign pain?

Have you decided who to vote for in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election?

If you're like most Americans, you have. By this date, two weeks or so before the election, at least 90% and in some elections 95% of you know who you're going to vote for, political science research tells us.

Historically, at this stage of the campaign, the only people who have not determined which candidate they'll vote for are those adults who tend to not vote regularly: they'll often even pass up voting in a presidential election.

2008 campaign: most negative ever?

One benefit, if you've decided who to vote for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, or U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, is that you don't have to watch any more campaign coverage or campaign ads (if you can avoid them).

True, it must seem like this presidential campaign has been the most negative ever, but if the truth be told, it's no more negative than the one in 2004, or in 1960, and certainly not more negative than the one in 1928. In 1928, the insults and smear tactics used against Democratic Party nominee N.Y. Governor Al Smith, would set the standard for gross and outrageous campaign tactics.

Continue reading Are you ready for the last two weeks of presidential campaign pain?

Google this: CEO Eric Schmidt wants to join the Obama cabinet

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Chief Executive Eric Schmidt appears interested in joining Barack Obama's cabinet. He's not campaigning for the job, telling the Wall Street Journal that he was "too busy" running the world's largest search engine company.

Of course, anyone who wants a cabinet position never admits it. It's considered a faux pas. Schmidt, though, seems to be interested in making a difference beyond Google. He does not want to sit back on some deserted island counting his billions as he downs exotic frozen drinks.

The Journal, citing unnamed tech and media executives, speculated that Schmidt "might desire a role in an Obama administration, possibly the chief technology officer post Sen. Obama has said he would create." Exactly what that job would entail is not clear. It sounds like the type of job where Schmidt would sit in an office somewhere in the White House thinking grand thoughts and writing grand reports that would gather dust almost as soon as they were published.

Continue reading Google this: CEO Eric Schmidt wants to join the Obama cabinet

Is a second stimulus check up ahead?

With unemployment rising and the signs of slowdown all around, is a second tax rebate or second stimulus check from Congress up ahead?

The U.S. economy continues to slow. More than 800,000 jobs have been lost since the slowdown began about a year ago, and many economists say the lay-offs are likely to continue or even increase.

Meanwhile, the world's major industrialized nations are striving to stabilize the global financial system and end a credit crunch that could further damage economies around the world.

Well, the answer to the question about a second stimulus check may very well rest on the answer to this one: Who are you voting for on Election Day, November 4?

Key factor: 2008 Election

Congressional Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, have vowed to push for a second stimulus package totaling up to $150 billion to help jump-start the anemic U.S. economy, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.

Continue reading Is a second stimulus check up ahead?

Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st?

The financial crisis is not over. If things were back to normal, banks would be lending to each other and to businesses and individuals. But measures of bank lending risk suggest fear is 12 times as high as it would be in normal times. The reason? Banks know more than you do about what's wrong. And they're not talking about it because they don't want you to withdraw your deposits and sell your stock. What they know is that on October 21st, some of the biggest players on Wall Street could be required to come up with $400 billion that some may not be able to pay.

Last month, the White House decided that we could afford to let Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy. That proved to be an enormous mistake. It triggered a run on money market funds because one of the oldest such funds, Reserve Primary, broke the buck since it held Lehman Brothers paper. The U.S. responded with a $50 billion guarantee of money market funds. But the biggest consequence of that mistake is in the $54.6 trillion market for Credit Default Swaps (CDSs).

A CDS is like selling insurance on your car to hundreds of people who don't own it -- yet if your car goes up in flames each of those people collects the full value of your car. More specifically, CDSs are insurance against a bond or loan default. Why are CDSs so dangerous? Three reasons: a CDS seller does not need to put any capital aside to cover losses if the security defaults, the buyer doesn't need to own the asset it wants to protect, and there is no central place where information about all these CDS deals is collected and updated.

Continue reading Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st?

McCain stock: Invest in the high-tech value chain Molex

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"A McCain victory would allow for a first year expensing of new equipment and technology; as such, we would recommend Molex (NASDAQ: MOLX), which is positioned in the technology value chain," says Thomas Vass in The Technology Stock Advisor.

"To provide an immediate boost to capital expenditures and reward investments in cutting edge technologies, John McCain would allow companies to expense the costs of new equipment or technology in the first year.

"High technology value chains -- such as computer and electronic equipment and information services -- are likely to benefit by this economic policy.

"Molex has an international value chain that will benefit greatly from the new policy because its customers will be able to buy technology goods at a much lower cost as a result of the new accelerated tax write-off.

"MOLX meets the Technology Stock Advisor screening criteria and has been in the TSA active portfolio since July of 2006. Standard & Poor's gives MOLX a B rating for quality. Our buy price target is $26. The target sell price is $40."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 07:51 AM

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