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McCain to GM: Go bankrupt!

Republican Senator John McCain is joining the growing ranks of "Let General Motors (NYSE: GM) file for bankruptcy" advocates.

"The best thing that could probably happen to General Motors, in my view, is they go into Chapter 11," he told Fox News yesterday. A bankruptcy filing, he explained, would allow the company to more quickly restructure itself to become "stronger, better, leaner."

Speaking on ABC, Senator Richard Shelby echoed his sentiments, saying that "subsidization of anything for very long never works. . . I've suggested they go into Chapter 11. That's where they belong. And they could reorganize."

Continue reading McCain to GM: Go bankrupt!

The market already expects Barack Obama to win

Investors may not support Barack Obama, but they do expect him to be the next president of the United States. The smart ones do anyway.

If the polls are to be believed, Obama should easily defeat John McCain. Even the ultra-conservative talking heads on CNBC seem to have accepted this reality. Carl Quintinilla recently asked Pennyslvania Senator Bob Casey whether Obama will be "pulled to the left" if the Democrats win in a landslide. Why not ask Casey, who is pretty conservative as Democrats go, about Obama's five-year plan? I guess it's no surprise that the business network has Steve Forbes as a guest host on "Squawk Box." The Arizona senator needs all of the help he can get.

The market already -- wrongly in my view -- views Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal ready to suck away their capital gains and wrap America in bubble wrap to protect it from the ravages of world trade. The truth is more complex than these stereotypes. Obama plans to cut taxes for most Americans and favors fair trade policies. Markets, however, anticipate the future and people are scared. That explains why the Dow Jones industrial average is down more than 29%.

Continue reading The market already expects Barack Obama to win

John McCain pledges to cut taxes and will still lose big

John McCain went on CNBC this morning to argue -- once again -- that the key to reviving the economies lies with keeping taxes under control, especially the capital gains tax. The Arizona Republican yet again accused Democrat Barack Obama of being a tax-and-spend liberal, the type of boogeyman that would send shivers down the spine of most CNBC viewers.

And you know what? These tactics are failing miserably. Polls indicate that baring any huge cataclysmic event, Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. According to Bloomberg News, McCain "goes into the campaign's final weekend a bigger underdog than any victorious candidate in a modern election."

Continue reading John McCain pledges to cut taxes and will still lose big

Google this: CEO Eric Schmidt wants to join the Obama cabinet

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Chief Executive Eric Schmidt appears interested in joining Barack Obama's cabinet. He's not campaigning for the job, telling the Wall Street Journal that he was "too busy" running the world's largest search engine company.

Of course, anyone who wants a cabinet position never admits it. It's considered a faux pas. Schmidt, though, seems to be interested in making a difference beyond Google. He does not want to sit back on some deserted island counting his billions as he downs exotic frozen drinks.

The Journal, citing unnamed tech and media executives, speculated that Schmidt "might desire a role in an Obama administration, possibly the chief technology officer post Sen. Obama has said he would create." Exactly what that job would entail is not clear. It sounds like the type of job where Schmidt would sit in an office somewhere in the White House thinking grand thoughts and writing grand reports that would gather dust almost as soon as they were published.

Continue reading Google this: CEO Eric Schmidt wants to join the Obama cabinet

Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st?

The financial crisis is not over. If things were back to normal, banks would be lending to each other and to businesses and individuals. But measures of bank lending risk suggest fear is 12 times as high as it would be in normal times. The reason? Banks know more than you do about what's wrong. And they're not talking about it because they don't want you to withdraw your deposits and sell your stock. What they know is that on October 21st, some of the biggest players on Wall Street could be required to come up with $400 billion that some may not be able to pay.

Last month, the White House decided that we could afford to let Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy. That proved to be an enormous mistake. It triggered a run on money market funds because one of the oldest such funds, Reserve Primary, broke the buck since it held Lehman Brothers paper. The U.S. responded with a $50 billion guarantee of money market funds. But the biggest consequence of that mistake is in the $54.6 trillion market for Credit Default Swaps (CDSs).

A CDS is like selling insurance on your car to hundreds of people who don't own it -- yet if your car goes up in flames each of those people collects the full value of your car. More specifically, CDSs are insurance against a bond or loan default. Why are CDSs so dangerous? Three reasons: a CDS seller does not need to put any capital aside to cover losses if the security defaults, the buyer doesn't need to own the asset it wants to protect, and there is no central place where information about all these CDS deals is collected and updated.

Continue reading Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st?

McCain stock: Invest in the high-tech value chain Molex

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"A McCain victory would allow for a first year expensing of new equipment and technology; as such, we would recommend Molex (NASDAQ: MOLX), which is positioned in the technology value chain," says Thomas Vass in The Technology Stock Advisor.

"To provide an immediate boost to capital expenditures and reward investments in cutting edge technologies, John McCain would allow companies to expense the costs of new equipment or technology in the first year.

"High technology value chains -- such as computer and electronic equipment and information services -- are likely to benefit by this economic policy.

"Molex has an international value chain that will benefit greatly from the new policy because its customers will be able to buy technology goods at a much lower cost as a result of the new accelerated tax write-off.

"MOLX meets the Technology Stock Advisor screening criteria and has been in the TSA active portfolio since July of 2006. Standard & Poor's gives MOLX a B rating for quality. Our buy price target is $26. The target sell price is $40."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

McCain stock: Pro-growth strategy for CenturyTel (CTL)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"A President McCain will be pro-growth but should be more aggressive in oversight as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions; with that being said, we like CenturyTel Inc. (NYSE: CTL)," says Kelley Wright, editor of Investment Quality Trends.

"CTL provides a variety of communications services to 25 states in primarily rural area and small to mid-size cities.

"The company offers local and long distance services, as well as enhanced voice services, as well as high-speed and dial-up Internet.

"In June the company increased its annual dividend to $2.80 from $0.27, reflecting its confidence in their growth model and as a deterrent to possible suitors.

"The blue-chip stocks that we recommend, including CTL, show exemplary long-term dividend growth, a P/E ratio of 15 or less, a payout ratio of 50% or less, debt of 50% or less, and technical characteristics on the daily and weekly charts that suggests the potential for imminent capital appreciation.

"Currently yielding almost 7.0%, CTL offers tremendous value in both dividend yield and the potential for long-term capital appreciation."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

McCain stock: Shaw Group (SGR) goes nuclear

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"John McCain has said that nuclear power must be part of a plan to address climate change and reduce our dependence on foreign oil; to benefit from this plan, buy Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR), which constructs and maintains nuclear power plants," says Paul Tracy in his Street Authority Market Advisor.

"Today, nearly half of U.S. electricity is created via conventional coal-fired plants. This made sense for us for decades -- coal is so cheap and plentiful here that the United States is often referred to as the Saudi Arabia of coal.

"However, in the past few years, the tide of public sentiment has shifted against the energy source. Primarily this is due to the emissions created by burning coal for electricity.

"In addition to the well known release of carbon dioxide, coal emissions also contain traces of mercury. On top of that, the rise of China and other emerging markets has led to higher costs for coal.

"So with a public that is increasingly interested in alternative sources of electricity and a president who is committed to increasing nuclear power usage, the companies that build and maintain nuclear plants sit in the perfect position to benefit.

"In particular, I think Louisiana-based Shaw Group is a stock to watch. SGR's largest end market is the construction and maintenance of power plants, including both plants fired by fossil fuels and nuclear facilities.

"The company also owns a 20% stake in Westinghouse Electric, one of the world's leading designers and builders of nuclear power plants.

Continue reading McCain stock: Shaw Group (SGR) goes nuclear

McCain stock: Mining gains with uranium miner USEC (USU)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"If McCain is elected, we would suggest USEC (NYSE: USU); after slumbering for over 20 years, nuclear power is quickly emerging from hibernation and will be satisfying a much larger percentage of the nation's energy-hungry appetite during McCain administration," says value investor Nathan Slaughter, editor of Half-Priced Stocks.

"Currently, there are 104 nuclear plants in operation nationwide, which combined, account for 20% of the country's electricity. But both of those totals are set to rise markedly. Current forecasts suggest nuclear facilities could double their share and ultimately account for 40% of power in the U.S.

"There are several factors underpinning this resurgence in nuclear energy, not the least of which is $100 per barrel oil and elevated prices for natural gas and coal.

"Believe it or not, one kilogram of uranium-235 has the stored energy equivalent of 1,500 tons of coal. And while up-front construction expenses can be high, ongoing operating costs for nuclear reactors are running just $15-20 per megawatt hour, far cheaper than traditional plants.

"John McCain is an outspoken champion for the nuclear power movement, outlining ambitious plans to commit $315 billion towards the construction of 45 new reactors over the next two decades.

"Beyond that, he has a clear goal of achieving energy independence by building '100 new plants to power the homes and factories and cities of America.'

"All of this spells plenty of opportunity for USEC, owner of the nation's only uranium enrichment facility. The company is in the business of supplying fuel for commercial reactors around the world -- and competition is sparse.

"The firm also benefits from a longstanding nuclear non-proliferation treaty with Russia. Specifically, USEC participates in the salvaging of old Soviet nuclear warheads under the 'Megatons to Megawatts' program.

"The company has carved out a dominant market share and now supplies about half of the nation's enriched uranium (most of the rest comes from Russia).

Continue reading McCain stock: Mining gains with uranium miner USEC (USU)

McCain stock: Defense play with General Dynamics (GD)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"The GOP is traditionally known as the party that spends more on defense; thus, if McCain wins the election, one stock to benefit would be defense firm General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)," says John Reese, editor of Validea, which follows the strategies of "legendary" investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

"While McCain has talked tough about reforming the defense budget, he has also pledged to increase the size of the military, modernize the armed services, and push hard for strong missile defense systems -- all of which require serious spending.

"As a major producer of battle tanks and assault vehicles, armaments and munitions, battleships and nuclear submarines, and military information technology systems, this Virginia-based firm is thus likely to have quite a bit of work on its hands during a McCain presidency.

"Just as importantly, General Dynamics' finances and fundamentals are very strong, earning approval from both my Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett-based Guru Strategies -- computer models that are each based on the approach of a different investing great.

"Because of its moderate 18.14% long-term growth rate and huge annual sales of $28.7 billion, General Dynamics is considered a 'stalwart' by my Lynch strategy, the type of large, steady firm that Lynch found offered protection during downturns or recessions.

"Two big reasons my Lynch model is high on this stalwart: its yield-adjusted P/E/Growth ratio of 0.75, which signals that the stock is a bargain right now, and its 18.79% debt/equity ratio, a sign that GD has the conservative financing Lynch liked to see."

My Buffett-based model, meanwhile, likes General Dynamics' consistency. Over the past decade, its EPS have declined just once, rising from $1.46 to $5.10 in that time.

"The company's annual return on equity -- a figure Buffett used to find firms with the 'durable competitive advantage' he famously prizes -- has been at least 16.4% every year.

"GD has also retained $22.30 in per-share earnings in the past decade while increasing EPS by $3.64, showing it can earn investors a 16.3% return on the earnings it keeps. That's a sign of the strong management Buffett is also known to look for."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Our pick to profit from a McCain-Palin victory in November is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an exchange-traded fund that is designed to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion," explains Nate Pile, editor of Nate's Notes.

"We would buy gold in order to hedge ourselves against what we expect would be a heightened sense of uncertainty that foreign investors would express (at least initially) if the hard-to-predict 'mavericks' take the helm.

"I also continue to believe that we are still in the early stages of what will prove to be a multi-year boom for commodities, and much of the selling we have seen in gold appears to be for primarily emotional reasons.

"The recent strength of the dollar may partially explain the drop in gold, but for the most part, I think we have simply been witnessing some good old-fashioned panic selling.

"Unlike some other ETFs that invest in precious metals via the buying and selling of futures contracts on the underlying commodities, SPDR Gold Trust (formerly known as the streetTracks Gold Trust) actually buys and sells gold bullion, and each share of the Trust represents approximately 1/10th of an ounce of gold.

"However, while there are certain benefits to actually owning gold itself (as opposed to a derivative contract associated with the commodity), investors need to be aware that gold is considered a 'collectible' by the IRS, and thus investing in this ETF can result in a higher tax rate being applied to any gains that are achieved.

Continue reading McCain stock: Go for gold with SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

McCain stock: Stick with dividend growers

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"If John McCain wins, there's a greater likelihood the reduced-dividend and capital gains tax rate will be extended; in that case, I would favor a tax-advantaged fund such as the Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Dividend Income Fund(NYSE: EVT)," says Carla Pasternak in High Yield Investing.

"Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Dividend Income Fund has a solid tax-advantaged yield of more than 11%, of which the entire 2007 amount qualified for the reduced dividend tax rate of up to 15%.

"EVT focuses on strong dividend-growers and undervalued stocks with room to move. About 80% of the fund's holdings are in common stocks, with the rest of the portfolio in high-yielding preferred shares.

"Top holdings include oil giants Chevron and ConocoPhillips, as well as utilities like Edison International and dividend stalwart Philip Morris.

"The fund does have large exposure to the financial sector, as it accounts for about 20% of the portfolio. Due to the turmoil in the sector, EVT has seen its share price sink amid the credit crisis.

"While we can't be sure of when the crisis in the financial industry will subside, we can be assured this fund will benefit once things turn around. Meanwhile, investors are able to lock in a juicy double-digit yield.

"Investors seeking international exposure will also do well with this fund. Less than half (45%) of the fund is invested in the U.S. The remainder is spread evenly across Europe's major economies, including Germany, the U.K. and Finland.

"With a solid record for dividend growth, and selling at a steep discount of about -20% to the value of its underlying portfolio assets (meaning investors can pick up a dollar's worth of assets for only 80 cents), EVT might be attractive no matter who assumes the presidency.

"However, due to its tax-advantaged nature, having a Republican in the White House who favors keeping the current reduced-dividend tax would be a direct benefit to EVT investors."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Obama, McCain both want Warren Buffett as Treasury Secretary

One of the few things that Barack Obama and John McCain agreed on during last night's televised debate was that billionaire Warren Buffett would make a good Secretary of the Treasury.

Odds are that the universally respected Buffett won't take the job. Why does he need the headache at this point in his life? Besides, he may not be the type of government official investors would like. Much to the horror of political conservatives, the Oracle of Omaha is backing Obama. He has come out against such bedrock Republican principles as abolishing the so-called death tax on inherited wealth. The financial disclosure requirements alone probably are enough to scare Buffett away from government service.

To counter Obama's Buffett card, McCain said that former eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) CEO Meg Whitman might be the right person for the job. I guess no one mentioned to the Arizona senator the massive layoffs planned by the online auctioneer. Interesting how another McCain supporter, ex-Hewlett Packard Co. (NASDAQ: HPQ) Chief Executive Carly Fiorina, did not merit consideration. Given her disastrous tenure, it's no wonder.

Another good potential Treasury Secretary neither brought up is Michael Bloomberg. The founder of Bloomberg LP (where I worked for seven years) clearly knows the markets. He's rich and has shown savvy in navigating New York City's political landmines that Washington should be a walk in the park. Too bad he's got his heart set on a third time as mayor.

Continue reading Obama, McCain both want Warren Buffett as Treasury Secretary

Should the government buy homes heading to forclosure?

During last night's presidential debate (which he lost badly) Republican John McCain vowed that if elected he would order the U.S. Treasury Department to purchase "bad mortgages" to help people avoid foreclosure. It's an idea that deserves consideration.

According to Bloomberg News, the McCain campaign estimates that it would cost $300 billion, some of which would be diverted from the $700 billion rescue of Wall Street. The Arizona senator did not provide specifics during the debate. Democrat Barack Obama proposed a similar idea during a press conference last month, according to Bloomberg. These proposals raise many questions.

First of all, can the government afford to purchase both mortgages and mortgage-backed securities? How will the government determine who gets help? Many people bought homes they could not afford because of criminally lax lending standards at some banks. Others were hoodwinked by unscrupulous mortgage brokers into taking adjustable-rate mortgages when they qualified for cheaper fixed-rate 30-year loans. These individuals are the most deserving of the government's help. Officials should try and help other distressed mortgagers provided that they can afford their properties. Otherwise, they should be given assistance to find affordable housing.

Continue reading Should the government buy homes heading to forclosure?

McCain stock: A China policy pick, Lonking Holdings (CIMHF)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"I expect that if McCain gets elected he will not alter the U.S. policies toward China and therefore the country will continue to move ahead with its economic modernization plans; Lonking Holdings Limited (OTC: CIMHF) stands to benefit tremendously from this plan," says Yiannis Mostrous in his The Silk Road Investor.

"China's main focus is the improvement of the economy's infrastructure. The theme fit well what international developmental agencies have been estimating, namely that more than US$600 billion will be spent improving living conditions in Asia, home to a third of the world's population.

"China and India are at the forefront of such efforts, with Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam right behind. Roads, railways, airports, power production, electricity supply, clean water and waste management are all on the to-do lists.

"China, leading the way on roads, railroads and energy, is now in the construction phase of a 30-year, 85,000 kilometer expressway project. It's also building a railway that will link China's east and west for the first time, and China and other Asian countries are in the planning stages of a trans-Asia rail link.

Continue reading McCain stock: A China policy pick, Lonking Holdings (CIMHF)

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 09:23 AM

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