Lyondell's got it all: earnings, cash flow and a huge refinery originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Jan 2007 07:31:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Auto sales weren't so bad after all! we all agreed, shaking hands and congratulating the industry, feeling a bit smug (despite Toyota's walloping of all things American). And at first blush, it looked to be true: sales at Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) were actually up vs. September 2005, 4.7%, and sales at DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE:DCX) and General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM) weren't down as much as many industry watchers feared.

That's all well and good, when you're looking at raw units sold. But Autoblog's John Neff went a little deeper and considered the way auto dealerships operate: in "selling days." September 2006 selling days were 26, vs. only 25 in September 2005. And if you know auto dealerships, the guys behind the desk are really looking at DSR: daily sales rate.

Were we all snookered into placidity by one of the oldest tricks in the car sales guys' book? Here's what John found when he looked at DSR instead of gross sales:

Continue reading Auto sales misleading: Autoblog looks at 'real' September sales numbers

Auto sales misleading: Autoblog looks at 'real' September sales numbers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Oct 2006 13:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Who wouldn't want to follow in the footsteps of this century's great investors? SmartMoney tries to give its reader that opportunity in its August cover story profiling the likes (and the stock picks) of Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, Chris Davis and others.

It's a fascinating read and one that left me chomping at the bit to go invest my spare cash. Sears Holdings (SHLD), Merck (MRK), and News Corp (NWS) were the names that caught my eye. If I had any spare cash I would probably be doing some buying rather than writing this blog post. But since I don't, I'll instead enumerate the reasons why it may not make sense to follow the stock picks of the pros:

• They bought back then, but would they buy now? You just don't know. Buffett bought ConocoPhillips, General Electric (GE) and United Parcel Service (UPS) in the past year. But has he held onto them? Did he buy for reasons that have nothing to do with his view on their long-term potential (that's always a possibility with Wall Street pros)? My guess is the answer is "no" to both those questions, but we just can't be sure what Buffett was thinking when he bought and if he'd do the same thing today.
• What if they are due for a cool streak? Bill Miller has been an investing phenomenon, beating the S&P year after year. Some academics would argue that it's pure luck. The article points out that his bets on United Health Group (UNH) and Aetna (AET)aren't looking so good and a couple of his August cover picks -- Yahoo and Dell -- have stumbled badly lately. But Sears Holdings (SHLD) sounds like a decent idea to me.
• Are they playing it safe? Christopher Davis picks Wal-Mart and Microsoft. Those sound like fine choices for the core of a portfolio, but I doubt they are really his best ideas. News Corp (NWS), his third idea sounds like the smartest to me. And the stock is doing terrific this year.

The article is well worth reading and if you are looking for some good ideas, this is a great place to start. But just as with any investing article, it should just be the starting point for further research.

Stock picks of great investors aren't always the best picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.