Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ - option chain) shares are dropping today after the company got a slate of bad news. First, S&P downgraded the stock today and cut its price target by 47%. Also, September retail sales came in way lower than expected, which is driving retail stocks lower today. Lastly, competitor Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) lowered its EPS guidance and is off by more than 20% today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LIZ.

This morning, LIZ opened at $11.06. So far today the stock has hit a low of $9.99 and a high of $11.15. As of 12:40, LIZ is trading at $10.59, down $1.17 (-10.0%). The chart for LIZ looks bearish and S&P gives LIZ a 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $15 range.

Really, Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) could not have picked a better day to report fourth quarter earnings if it tried. When the government reports surprisingly strong retail sales for January, with clothes in particular up 1.4% during the month, that fact can only help a clothing retailer.

Jones, still executing its restructuring plan, said its fourth-quarter net loss narrowed to $89.8 million, or $1.06 per share, from $269.5 million, or $2.51 per share, last year. Without the gain on the sale of its high-end department-store chain, Barneys New York, and other costs, net income was nine cents per share, beating the seven cents per share analysts had been expecting.

Jones, which exited several lines during the quarter and along with the rest of the market suffered from weak holiday shopping season, posted a 17% decline in revenue to $838.5 million from $1.01 billion last year. Analysts expected revenue of $874.8 million. To get a better feel for the retailer's performance during the quarter, same-store sales fell 4.8%.

Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) shares are rising today after the company's Q3 earnings release. Earnings skyrocketed to $3.97 per share, up from $0.56 in the year-ago period, thanks to a hefty income tax benefit and other one-time gains. Revenues fell 5% but still exceeded analysts' expectations. Excluding one-time items, the company's adjusted EPS was $0.51, ahead of analysts' expectations of $0.34. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JNY.

After hitting a one-year high of $35.54 in January, the stock fell to a 52-week low of $16.73 in August. JNY opened this morning at $22.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $19.70 and a high of $23.08. As of 10:35, JNY is trading at $20.07, up $0.37 (1.9%). The chart for JNY looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just 3 months as long as JNY is above $17.50 at January expiration. Jones would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money.

The value of luxury retailing chain Barneys New York, currently owned by Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY), just got a little steeper. Over the weekend, Japan's Fast Retailing Company said it would pay $950 million to acquire the Barneys chain. Since July 5, Fast Retailing has been trying to beat out Dubai investment group Istithmar, which originally offered $825 million for the chain but has since upped its bid to $900 million.

The latest offer is 15% higher than Istithmar's original acquisition price and nearly 140% above what Jones paid to buy-out Barneys in December 2004.

Jones Apparel officials have responded by saying Istithmar has two business days to respond with an offer that, according to a statement published by the Associated Press, is "at least as favorable to Jones as the amended Fast Retailing offer." If Jones decides to deal with Fast Retailing, it will owe the Dubai suitor a $22.7 million break-up fee.

Jones shares have dropped more than 2% today to hit a new 52-week low of $19.79. The stock may be continuing to real from its disappointing earnings report last week.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Yesterday's unsolicited non-binding proposal for $900 million from Fast Retailing to purchase Barneys increases the likelihood that private equity will revisit Jones Apparel Group Inc (NYSE: JNY). In 2006, Jones explored the private equity route but found the offers unattractive.

However, receiving a huge sum for Barneys, the once-bankrupt retailer, might change that. Jones has a $3.1 billion market cap and is expected to generate $431 million in 2007 EBITDA and $447 million in 2008 EBITDA, with much of that being free cash flow.

Trading at 7.7x and 7.5x enterprise value-to-EBITDA according to a Goldman Sachs report released yesterday, this deal that can get financing if private equity offers a 10 to 20% premium.

Jones has good management and good cash flow and provides a very attractive trading opportunity for investors with the stock having dropped from $34 to $28 the past few months. The retailer should be able to receive in the low-to-mid $30s when adjustments are made for the Barneys sale.

Jones looks to me like a good risk-reward trade with not much downside and good upside appreciation.

Analysts are expecting Jones Apparel Group Inc (NYSE: JNY) to announce a sale of upscale fashion retail chain Barneys New York any minute now. Sources have indicated Jones CEO Peter Boneparth is looking to sell the chain because of a decline in the company's stock price -- shares closed yesterday at $28.36, while trading in January for over $35. Additionally, having failed to sell the entire company nearly a year ago, Mr. Boneparth may be looking to take advantage of the highly competitive market for luxury goods.

Because of the desire for luxury goods, Barneys has been sought after by publicly-traded companies as well as private-equity groups. There is strong market speculation that Istithmar, the investment arm of the Dubai government, could be the victor in the race for Barneys. Istithmar has a global real estate portfolio valued around $7 billion, including owning apparel retailer Loehmann's Holdings, and has been in hot pursuit of other U.S. properties over the past year. Sources close to the matter believe Istithmar could offer around $825 million for Barneys.

In addition to Istithmar, rumors swirled recently that Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom Inc (NYSE: JWN) had been interested in the chain and considered making bids around in the $800 million to $850 million range price, but dropped out when both companies believed the price would escalate too high, perhaps as far as $1.4 billion.

A sale of Barneys would likely come, as the New York Times reported, as a "partial victory" for Mr. Boneparth. He had been oft criticized that he paid too high a price in 2004 for the chain, but may have the last laugh if the sale price turns out to be nearly twice as high.

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• According to Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" column, Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) has gone from a growth play to a value play, and may be a bargain after a recent pullback.
• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that although the Dolan family finally convinced its board to take its $10.6B offer to take Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) private, hurdles remain, as some investors aren't going along with it.
• Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) plans to spend about $1B over the next 10 years to expand its chip assembly and test operations in the Philippines, reported the Wall Street Journal.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The New York Post reported that Jones Apparel Group Inc (NYSE: JNY) said yesterday it would close or sell some of its mid-price lines by the end of the year in order to reduce its exposure to department stores.
• A New York Post exclusive reported that Ion Media Networks Inc (NYSE: ION) looks close to approving a takeover deal with General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC and Citadel, despite shareholder opposition and a rival bid from Echostar Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: DISH).
• Despite the fact that the board of Dow Jones and Company (NYSE: DJ) twice said it will not take News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) $5B offer from Rupert Murdoch, a number of analysts say that it'll either be Murdoch or another competitor who buys the owner of the Wall Street Journal, reported the Los Angeles Times.
• According to sources close to the decision, Peter Sutherland will stay with BP plc (NYSE: BP) as chairman into 2009 to "help stabilize" the company following Lord Browne's departure, reported the Telegraph.

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• The Wall Street Journal reported that Telefonica SA ADS of Spain (NYSE: TEF), in a $5.6B deal, has won a stake in Telecom Italia (NYSE: TI), but not control.
• According to the Wall Street Journal, Jones Apparel Group Inc (NYSE: JNY) CEO Peter Boneparth may sell Barney's, which it purchased in 2004 for $400M and today may be worth $800M.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) is constructing a $3.2B addition to its biggest refinery in Louisiana for diesel fuel.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Deutsche Boerse is in talks to make a $2.6B offer for International Securities Exchange Holdings Inc (NYSE: ISE).
• Senior Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) executives are afraid the company could become a target of activist hedge funds seeking to break the company up, reported the Financial Times.
• According to the Financial Times, a number of companies involved in options backdating scandals, including McAfee Incorporated (NYSE: MFE) and Novell Inc (NASDAQ: NOVL), could be vulnerable to takeover by activist investors.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The New York Times "Dealbook" reported that Porsche has bid $48.9B for Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY), and the bid will run for four weeks starting today.
• The News Journal reported that AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) has received a subpoena from the Delaware Attorney General, which seeks documents about the company's contracts with Delaware hospitals.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is about to purchase 13 hotels from All Nippon Airways for about $1.2B, doubling the number of hotels the investment bank owns there, reported the Wall Street Journal.
• The Financial Times reported that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced it would delay shipping its new Leopard operating system until October, due to the summer launch of its iPhone.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the New York Times, citing people briefed on the discussions, Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM) is in talks to be acquired by private equity for more than $20B.
• The Guardian reported that exiled Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky is planning the "violent overthrow of [Russian] President Putin".
• The New York Post reported that Dubai is looking at buying Jones Apparel Group Inc's (NYSE: JNY) Barneys New York for $950M. Contrary to previous reports, the suitor is not linked to Qatar's royal family, but is Istithmar, a private equity firm owned by the Dubai government.

WEBSITES:

• According to sources familiar with the matter, Apple has plans to release new iPods with Wi-Fi, reported DigiTimes.com.

Stock screeners are tools that let investors filter through a large number of stocks according to chosen criteria. While helping investors pick stocks and narrow down options, it is important to remember that a stock screener is just a tool and every investment should be analyzed on its own merits to make sure it fits with your personal portfolio and risk characteristics. This is my weekly column that finds interesting investment opportunities with the help of our Stock Screener.

Update: I've written the post before the recent rumors reported in the New York Post about Barneys New York possibly being bought by Dubai oil sheiks. While I did mention that I've noticed increased activity in JNY trading, the reason was unclear. I now expanded further on the matter at the end of the post.

Last Friday was Good Friday and like every good Canadian who lives along the U.S. border, we decided we couldn't handle one day without shopping (stores in Canada were closed). So we drove to Buffalo. Bargain huntin'. With the low U.S. dollar, bargains are even better. We went to the outlet mall and, as usual, I got stuck at Jones New York, hubby at Liz Claiborne.

Last week I came across an article in Forbes about the possibility of Gianni Versace S.p.A. going public. Versace had recently announced it swung a profit in 2006 and that it plans to further expand in Asia. A Versace IPO could be worth $1.2 billion. A Wall Street Journal article mentioned that a few other private fashion houses might also consider public offering [subscription] next year, including Prada SpA.

Naturally, with all this in my head, I wanted to see how the U.S. fashion stores are doing. In the Stock Screener, I chose the Women's Clothing industry and a minimum $1 billion market capitalization. Lo and behold, the stock screener returned Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) and Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY).

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Highlights from today's Wall Street Journal (subscription required):
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) saves itself hundreds of millions in taxes through a complex structure that allows it to pay rent to itself.
• Altria Group (NYSE: MO) is expected to decide later this year on its next spinoff, splitting its U.S. business from its International business.
• Nissan Motor Co ADR's (NASDAQ: NSANY) new models may help it catch up to rival automakers, writes the "Heard in Asia" column.
• The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Dick Parsons said that spinning off Time Warner Cable is a top priority for Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) this year.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the Associated Press, BP plc (NYSE: BP) will sell its U.K. refinery to Petroplus for $1.4B.
• The New York Post reported that Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) is contemplating breaking up the company, including a possible IPO for its Barney's chain.
• The Business wrote that ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has begun talks to sell a part or all of its French oil business, valued at about $2.6B.