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Insurers poised for a bounce relative to banks?

Many financial stocks have been on a tear since the Federal Reserve's surprise 75-basis point inter-meeting rate cut on January 22. For example, the KBW Bank Index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the KBW Bank ETF (AMEX: KBE) -- has rallied 16.1%, beating the S&P 500 index by more than 10 percentage points.

Yet not all financial sub-groups have kept pace with the banks. For instance, after performing well in relative terms during the fourth quarter, insurers have stalled, with the KBW Insurance Index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the KBW Insurance ETF (AMEX: KIE) -- more-or-less tracking the move in the overall market in recent weeks.

Continue reading Insurers poised for a bounce relative to banks?

A tale of two financial sectors

Banks shares have been buffeted by ill winds in recent months, including the housing and subprime finance meltdowns, and the sector has been among the stock market's worst performing groups.

Insurance shares, meanwhile, have lost some ground relative to the broad market but have outperformed banks and other financial shares by a wide margin.

Arguably, that suggests investors see little real impact on insurers from the problems affecting their counterparts in banking and elsewhere. However, in a financial environment where margins are low and risk is being repriced, in some cases dramatically, I wonder if the bulls on insurance stocks might be missing something?

Whether they offer coverage against calamities such as floods or fire, or protect policyholders from financial loss due to illness or death, insurance companies are in the business of acquiring risk -- albeit for a price.

Continue reading A tale of two financial sectors

Bank sector hits new relative lows

Although the KBW Bank Index is less than 7% away from its late-February all-time highs, the benchmark measure has failed to keep pace with the broader market for quite some time.

Since August, bank shares have underperformed the S&P 500 Index by 10.5%, and the sector is more than 13% below its July 2003 peak on a comparative basis. As of this morning, in fact, the relative measure hit its lowest level since the bull market began in 2002.

Often, relative performance analysis offers clues about how large investors, in particular, view an industry's future prospects. In this case, the continuing deterioration may reflect growing apprehensions about credit quality, especially in light of the meltdown in the subprime finance sector, as well as the sense that the industry's best days may be behind it.

Given that many investors are overweight the financial sector and have traditionally viewed bank shares as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, now may be the time for a rethink.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 10:53 PM

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