Analyst Upgrades

• Research In Motion (RIMM) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Citigroup (C) to buy from hold at ISI Group.
• Integrated Silicon (ISSI) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Kinross Gold (KGC) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

Today's stock market could not offer a repeat of triple-digit DJIA gains. Personal income and spending failed to offer a renewed hope that a major upside was coming from Joe Public in new consumer spending. The pending home sales data is also running at historic lows.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,636.38 -38.00 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,120.46 -5.40 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,283.52 -11.84 (-0.52%)

Top Analyst Calls

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Barrick Gold (ABX) to buy from hold and reiterates a buy rating on Newmont Mining (NEM) after upping its 2011 gold forecast to $1,450 per ounce and 2012 forecast to $1,600 per ounce. The firm upped its target for Barrick shares to $53 from $45, for Newmont shares to $74 from $72, and on hold-rated Goldcorp (GG) and Kinross Gold (KGC) to $40 and $20, respectively.
• Citigroup upgraded General Dynamics (GD) to hold from sell following the recent pullback in shares. The firm keeps a $67 price target for the stock.
• UBS upgraded Public Service (PEG) to buy from neutral and has a $34 price target on the stock. The firm cites the company's solid balance sheet, earnings profile, and valuation for the upgrade.
• News Corp. (NWS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Soleil.
• AK Steel (AKS) was upgraded to neutral from underperform.
• Progress Energy (PGN) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• PNC Financial (PNC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.

There's nothing like a quick profit. Hedge fund manager, John Paulson, made $45.3 million in five weeks in a single gold trade. Bloomberg reports he owns 10.3 million shares of Detour Gold (DRGDF). Since purchasing the shares in October, they soared 35% to close at CAD $18 per share in Toronto.

Paulson, who manages $30 billion, has invested heavily in several gold companies. He is the largest shareholder of Anglo Gold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) with 12% of the company's stock. He also has stakes in Kinross Gold Corp (KGC) and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI).

Analyst upgrades:

• Stephens upgraded Quidel (QDEL) to equal weight from underweight on valuation following the recent pullback in shares. The firm keeps a $16 price target on the stock.
• UBS upgraded Clearwire (CLWR) to neutral from sell, citing the company's funding, which increases opportunities. The firm raised its price target to $6 from $3.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Mattson Technology (MTSN) to outperform from perform on expectations the company will benefit from a cyclical recovery in memory capex spending in 2010. The firm raised its target on shares to $4 from $3.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) was upgraded to sell from conviction sell at Goldman.
• Kinross Gold (KGC) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Limited Brands (LTD) was upgraded to hold from sell at Soleil.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded BB&T (NYSE: BBT) to Market Perform from Underperform as it believes downside risk has been reduced following the company's capital raise. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $15.
  
• Janney Montgomery upgraded FEI Company (NASDAQ: FEIC) to Buy from Neutral on expectations margins will improve and various country stimulus packages will provide benefits in 2010. The firm has a $31 target on the stock.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Tyco Electronics (NYSE: TEL) to Buy from Hold as it believes automotive headwinds are priced in and the company's long-term fundamentals are intact. The firm raised its target price to $25 from $19.
• Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• J.B. Hunt (NYSE: JBHT) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
  
• Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP) was upgraded at Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform.

If there was any doubt whether the rally at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 was anything but a bear market rally, this week put these doubts to rest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is already down 8.3% year-to-date; it sank 6.2% this week alone (notwithstanding Friday).

This week the financial crisis once again took center stage as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) received a second round of bailout money and more guarantees. BAC is finding hard to digest its two acquisitions, while Citi is splitting itself and is no longer a financial supermarket.

But this wasn't all that happened this week. The fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off Monday; Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported dismal numbers, all the rest followed suit. Even if there were a few surprises to the upside that exceeded expectations, the expectations themselves were already quite low.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) to Buy from Hold on expectations that Haynesville results could be a catalyst in 2009. The firm raised their target to $100 from $94.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) to Outperform from market Perform following the completed merger with Allied Waste (NYSE: AW).
  
• KeyBanc upgraded NorthWestern (NYSE: NWE) to Buy from HOld as they expect the Montana commission to grant the company's pending request for an accounting order to smooth pension expenses over five years.
• EnCana (NYSE: ECA) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  
• Goldman also upgraded Questar (NYSE: STR) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst downgrades:

"Gold is now looking stronger; it is time that investors have gold in their portfolios," says Curtis Hesler. In the The Professional Timing Service, he looks at gold's seasonal patterns.

"I think they will rush to commodity-based assets because of the serious underinvestment phase the commodity sector is involved in now. This will lead to shortages and very high prices down the road in all commodities.

"Once the dollar begins to roll over, gold will be an instant benefactor. It is already looking stronger in my technical work, and it is time that investors should have gold in their portfolios. I still recommend that you put new money into the major gold miners only.

"We are approaching an interesting seasonal period for gold. Years ago, the Stock Trader's Almanac used to specify a seasonal trade in gold.

"Their study showed that if you bought ASA Ltd. (NYSE: ASA) at its low in November and sold it at its high in the first quarter of the next year, you would have averaged a gain of 87.8%.

It seems that everywhere you turn you hear something about the price of gold, from analysts to commercials encouraging you to sell your old jewelry for big bucks. If you're tempted, how about a bit safer investment in the commodity? Let your money work for you -- invest in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that hold shares in several different gold producers, and you can ride the wave of the industry.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) is a perfect opportunity to ride this wave with as the fund's goal is to mimic the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index, before fees and expenses. This is a nondiversified fund that is comprised of several well known companies whose main operations involve gold and silver mining.

There are two reasons to buy GDX instead of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) or the iShares Comex Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU) both of which are pure gold ETFs (you own a share of gold sitting in a safe). First, the ratio between gold and the value of the gold held by miners has been relatively stable for 30 years. But today, the gold miners are selling at 33% of that historical ratio, so bulls say it's better to buy the miners, not the metal. Second, the biggest expense of a mining company is energy. Oil today hit $54 per barrel, down 63% from a peak of $147. This adds to the profits of the Gold Miners.

When gold was trading above $1,000 an ounce, Curtis Hesler reversed his buy signal and fortuitously warned of a seasonal pullback expected over the summer.

In his The Professional Timing Service, he stated, "Gold should settle into the cyclical and seasonal lows due in early August. Although you will hear plenty of bearish arguments as gold prices pull back, weakness will be a buying opportunity."

He now explains, "I don't think there is much left on downside for the mining shares. We will likely see the miners firm up and begin to rally before the bullion. My adice is to hold tight and exploit the fear.

"This weakness presents a final opportunity before the late summer and early fall strength returns to precious metals. The coast is clearing for gold to advance to new highs by October when its next seasonal high is due.

"Longer-term, I can't help but wonder if gold isn't anticipating the next break in the dollar. We all should be thinking about the trillions of dollars in U.S. government unfunded liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, pensions, etc. There's going to be a tsunami of dollars printed to cover all of that.

"At the top of my buy list is Kinross (NYSE: KGC). Yamana (NYSE: AUY) is an excellent diversification in the precious metals sector. Also among my favorites is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lubrizol, BioMarin Pharmaceutical and Novartis were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of Lubrizol (NYSE:LZ) to Hold from Buy as they expect persistent raw material cost pressures to limit upside over the next few quarters. The firm lowered their target price to $60 from $65.
  
• Citigroup cut BioMarin (NASDAQ:BMRN) to Hold from Buy after their survey indicated an upside surprise from the Kuvan launch is unlikely. The firm lowered their target price to $37 from $42.
  
• HSBC downgraded shares of Novartis (NYSE:NVS) to Underweight from Neutral following the company's stake in Alcon (NYSE:ACL) as they believe it dilutes the company's return on assets.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman removed Waste Management (NYSE:WMI) from its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Thomas Weisel downgraded Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) to Market Weight from Overweight.
  
• Dreamworks Animation (NYSE:DWA) was lowered at UBS to Sell from Neutral.
  
• JP Morgan downgraded Martha Stewart (NYSE:MSO) to Neutral from Overweight.

Last week, I wrote one article about 10 stocks making new 52-week highs and another about 10 stocks making new 52-week lows. Gold, oil and steel plays made up the majority of stocks making new highs while technology and finance companies were the ones plummeting.

Both articles gave some very basic rules on how to spot reversals while recommending investors cut their losses quickly and let their winners run. And, both articles were released mid-week around the same time of day. Yet the article about stocks making new lows turned out to be more than seven times as popular!

Why do you think that is? Sure, they're slightly more actively traded, but I believe investors are not comfortable buying into or holding commodity plays because they've already gone up so much. But they're perfectly willing to go down with the ship on blue chip brokers and technology plays, sometimes even doubling and worse, tripling up because they're invested in such "quality companies."

In sharp contrast to the ten horrifically downtrending stocks I warned against buying in this article, today I feature these 10 solidly uptrending stocks.

AK STEEL (NYSE: AKS)
Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD)
United States Oil (AMEX: USO)
Quicksilver Resources (NYSE: KWK)
Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC)
Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)
streetTRACKS Gold (NYSE: GLD)
Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST)
Converted Organics (NASDAQ: COIN)
Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD)

It's charts like theirs that make you wonder why you're messing around with any other stocks. Ahhh, if it was only that easy. No matter that all the stocks listed above are making new highs, now the concern is that they may have come too far too fast. In 2008, several of these stocks-the gold plays in particular-have risen nearly 50%. Obviously the oil stocks have also been surging, but how much further can the "black gold" plays really run?

Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN): Settles patent lawsuit with major rival Affymetrix (NASDAQ: AFFX). Shares trade up to $75.20 against 52-week low of $28.11.

Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC): Price of gold and gold producers just keeps rising. Stock moves up to $22.86 from 52-week low of $9.87.

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY): Gold again. Rises to $16.30 from 52-week low of $8.40.

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP): Soft-drinks sales aren't hurt by recessions, as far as anyone knows. Trades up to $79.79 from 52-week low of $61.89.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.