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Applied Materials reports abysmal results -- not an interesting value play

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), a technology company that provides solutions to industries involved with such things as semiconductors, flat panel displays and solar photovoltaic cells, and whose colleagues include KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and LAM Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday.

They weren't great. The top line decreased by 28%, coming in at $1.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per diluted share dropped well over 50% to 17 cents. Although these numbers are horrible, it should be noted that the company at least beat estimates of 14 cents per share.

Well, not to be a downer or anything, but Applied Materials is not the tech stock I want to be in right now. It is suffering through a dismal economic environment, and the growth rates just don't look good. Not only do you have these year-over-year declines, but you've also got sequential-quarter statistics showing a negative trend. Plus, new orders are down significantly, and the gross margin took a dive.

Is there any saving grace to the report? Yes. Cash flow from operations was essentially flat over the nine-month timeframe at almost $1.6 billion. Hey, flat is better than a decline, correct?

Continue reading Applied Materials reports abysmal results -- not an interesting value play

Analyst upgrades: AAPL, UBS, AZN and KLAC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, AstraZeneca and KLA-Tencor were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Thomas Weisel upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Overweight from Market Weight, citing a re-set in FY08 expectations and expected growth from Mac market share gains, accelerating iPhone revenue growth and increased iPhone ASPs.
  • WestLB upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Add from Hold as they believe the company's growth in core franchises are being overlooked.
  • Citigroup upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Buy from Hold , as they believe several near-term catalysts are likely to develop against an increasingly favorable cyclical backdrop. They think KLAC's near-term business is better than most think and maintain a $56 target on the stock.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman upgraded Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Buy List.
  • UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and added to the Europe 1 List.
  • Jefferies raised comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) to Buy from Hold.

Analyst downgrades: UBS, KLA-Tencor, Level 3 Communications

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, KLA-Tencor and Level 3 Comm were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of UBS (NYSE: UBS) to Underperform from Market Perform as they expect as they expect further write-downs to erase profits in 2008.
  • Oppenheimer downgraded shares of KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Underperform from Perform after checks indicated Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has chosen Applied Materials' (NASDAQ: AMAT) reticle inspection tool for its entire 32nm node after a long period of evaluation against KLA-Tencor. Oppenheimer believes this represents a $300M shift from KLA-Tencor's dominant market share in reticle inspection.
  • Jefferies cut Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Hold from Buy as they see limited opportunity for near-term share appreciation given the company's integration challenges and the added uncertainty from recent management changes.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Kroger (NYSE: KR) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  • Baird cut Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) to Neutral from Outperform.

Buy semiconductor stocks, sell other tech shares?

Up until the stock market bubble burst, many viewed the semiconductor sector as a leading indicator for other technology shares. Lately, however, the relationship has gone signficantly awry.

Since the year began, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust ETF (AMEX: SMH) -- has lost 3.4%, trailing far behind the 25.5% rise in the Nasdaq 100 index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) -- as well as the 8.6% gain in the S&P 500 index.

Although many technology stocks have been boosted by the prospect of strong overseas growth and momentum-driven buying, semiconductor shares have been under a great deal of pressure, hurt by disappointing earnings and outlooks from companies like KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), along with persistent talk of a chip glut.


Continue reading Buy semiconductor stocks, sell other tech shares?

Marketwatch technician is 'in the chips'

"The August lows now represent important technical levels defining the U.S. markets' primary uptrend," notes Michael Ashbaugh. The editor of The Marketwatch Technical Indicator explains, "Specifically, the S&P 500's August low holds at 1,427 while the Nasdaq's August low holds at 2,492. In addition, the Dow's August low holds at 13,134.

Ashbaugh continues, "For the Nasdaq and the S&P, a break below those levels would mark a failed test of support, also placing each index under its 200-day moving average. And if the breakdown were decisive, the primary trend would likely turn lower.

Yet "as ugly" as the current backdrop looks, he contends, from a strictly technical standpoint, the primary uptrend still has the benefit of the doubt.

Meanwhile, he suggests, we continue to find some names that are well positioned technically. These, he says, are intended as radar screen names - sectors or stocks positioned to move near term. In this light, the technician sees ongoing strength among chip-equipment names.

Ashbaugh says, "Each of these names broke out decisively in mid-July. Since then, Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) and KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) have pulled in, establishing support around the breakout point. Further, he adds, Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) and Varian Semiconductor (NASDAQ: VSEA) are the group's strongest names, knifing even higher after the initial breakout, despite a down market."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

Analyst upgrades 5-22-07: BXP, KLAC, MGM and RTN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: MGM Mirage (MGM), KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC), Raytheon Co (RTN) and four apartment REIT's were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Bear Stearns upgraded MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) to Outperform from Peer Perform following Kirk Kerkorian's intentions to purchase the Bellagio and City Center and also pursue strategic alternatives for the rest of the company.
  • Matrix raised KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Buy from Hold, believing that growing demand for memory chips used in computers is leading to increasing revenues and profits.
  • Cowen upgrade shares of Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) to Outperform from Neutral based on cash deployment potential from the RAC sale, pension EPS tailwind, foreign sales cycle, and strong execution.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 4-16-07: BHP, FCX, HSY and KLAC downgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP), Anglo American plc (AAUK), Shuffle Master, Inc (SHFL), KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC), and Hershey Foods (HSY) were today's notable downgrades:
  • Citigroup cut both BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE: BHP) and Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Hold from Buy.
  • Shuffle Master Inc (NASDAQ: SHFL) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman based on valuation and near-term challenges.
  • RBC cut KLA-Tencor Corp (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing valuation, concerns related to June order expectations, a slowdown in operating expense reduction and long-term concerns related to process control spending.
  • JP Morgan downgraded shares of Hershey Foods Co (NYSE: HSY) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation and concerns about the company's restructuring plan.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded Ameriprise Financial, Inc (NYSE: AMP) to Market Perform from Outperform, citing valuation.
  • Merriman cut ValueClick, Inc's (NASDAQ: VCLK) rating to Neutral from Buy as the firm believes Google's (GOOG) acquisition of DoubleClick clouds VCLK's long-term prospects.
  • UBS downgraded Supervalu Inc (NYSE: SVU) to Reduce from Neutral based on deteriorated sales trends.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Southern Copper Corp (NYSE: PCU) to Underweight from Equal Weight based on valuation and a potential miss to Q1 expectations.
  • Goldman removed Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE: FCX) from its Conviction Buy List, citing valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 4-11-07: CKFR KR, NTDOY and SHFL downgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: United Rentals, Inc (URI), Nintendo Co (NTDOY), Shuffle Master, Inc (SHFL), CheckFree Corp (CKFR) and The Kroger Co (KR) were some of today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan cut United Rentals Inc (NYSE: URI) to Underweight from Neutral believing the company's strategic alternatives and valuation upside are limited given slowing end markets and lack of sources to unlock value.
  • Prudential downgraded Shuffle Master Inc (NASDAQ: SHFL) to Neutral from Outperform following a field trip to Macau, as they are incrementally more negative given competition in electronic table games and continued market share erosion in slots.
  • JMP Securities cut CheckFree Corp (NASDAQ: CKFR) to Market Outperform from Strong buy and has a greater degree of certainty that Bank of America (BAC) is planning on moving its payment warehouse portion of online bill pay in-house over an unspecified period. The firm believes earnings can be impacted by 25c-30c annually.
  • HSBC downgraded shares of The Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) to Neutral from Overweight.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Cowen downgraded Salesforce.com, Inc (NYSE: CRM) to Neutral from Outperform and removed the company from its Focus List citing reduced visibility, lack of near-term catalysts and potential increased competition from Oracle Corp (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT).
  • JMP Securities downgraded Dendreon Corp (NASDAQ: DNDN) to Market Outperform from Strong Buy.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

KLA-Tencor makes it way back

Morgan Stanley upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to "overweight" and set a price target of $65 for the stock. The shares jumped 4% to $53 on the news. The company was one of the Internet boom stocks and once traded above $91. By 2002, it was as low as $28. Things really didn't get better until recently. The stock is still down about 25% over the last five years. Only in the last six months has it outperformed the market.

KLAC's process tools are at the heart of the quality process for making semiconductors, but concerns about margins in that sector have persisted for almost two years. Global chip sales rose 9.2% in January putting some wind back in the sails of the semiconductor stocks. The new optimism about chip equipment companies has moved up other stock in the sector including Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT).

In perhaps the best sign of all, the deadest stock in the sector, Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) has started to recover. The stock is up over 6% in the last five days. The word is that Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) need for flash memory for its iPod may tighten supply in that part of the industry. Overcapacity has knocked Sandisk down from a 52-week high of $66.20 to its current price of $39.94.

Concerns about chip margins extend to the big x86 manufacturers Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and AMD (NYSE: AMD), but signs of even a slight increase in demand, perhaps driven by PC purchases due to Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Vista, could improve the financial picture for that sector of tech.

KLAC is running now, and industry news may well keep its move up alive.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Barron's: Tech guru's buyout picks

Lately, things have been perking-up for tech. There's been a lot of M&A and third quarter earnings have been fairly strong. Also, it appears that companies are increasing their expenditures on IT and of course, consumers are buying lots of technology, such as Apple's (AAPL) iPod.

Well, in this week's Barron's, there is a big write up on Paul Wick, who heads the Seligman Communications and Information Fund (SLMCX). He has a focus on cash-flow analysis – which has worked quite well, as some of his picks have been bought out, such as Mercury Interactive and RSA Security.

What are his new buyout picks?

McAfee (MFE): In light of the myriad buyouts of security companies, this one looks like a good prospect. And, with the options-backdating scandal resulting in resignations of top executives, there may now be a catalyst for action.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC): This semiconductor testing company has also been whacked by the options backdating scandal. More importantly, the company is growing very nicely and has tons of cash

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+132.7910,450.95
NASDAQ+29.972,176.01
S&P 500+14.861,106.24

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 07:39 AM

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